2010 Projections and fPAA, Alpha Edition
Now that we have some projections to look at, we can start to look at fantasy value. I have developed our fPAA method using 2009 fantasy league data. I calculate player value in two ways: first I look at their value in terms of production rates (i.e. total playing time doesn’t matter as long as they produce). Then I recalculate everything in terms of total production and average the two numbers.
Keep in mind there are a lot of adjustments to be made with the projections, and that will change the rankings pretty drastically. Without further ado, the 50 most valuable fantasy players of 2010:
FantasyScope 2010 Early Projections
With the 2009 World Series in the books, it’s time to start thinking about next year. Too many days without baseball makes my brain go numb, so here’s something for you to play around with. I have posted the alpha version of my FantasyScope projections for 2010! Full spreadsheet available here.
Feel free to use these numbers any way you want, but please do acknowledge the source, and link to my site if you feel inclined. Note these are PRELIMINARY projections, and I have not adjusted for playing time, injury or league/team changes. I also need to weed out retired or inactive players for 2010 who still show up because I use a 3-year weighted model. I have started to add minor league projections, but many players are still missing, so let me know who you think will see significant time next year in the Majors. Positional changes have not yet been made, and there are little adjustments to be made all over. Please email me at redsoxtalk AT gmail DOT com with issues, or if you would like to help me curate the data.
Here are some hitting leaderboards to get you started:
2010 Profile: Ben Zobrist
After a stellar .297-91-27-91-17 season (at multiple positions) which made Ben Zobrist a household fantasy name, what can we expect from him next year? Zobrist has always been a good hitter in the minor leagues, but 2009 came as pretty much a universal surprise. After a career year like that, it’s important to have realistic expectations going forward.
2009 Forecaster’s Challenge results
FantasyScope is proud to have participated in Tom Tango’s 2009 Forecaster Challenge over at his “The Book” blog. Well, the results are now out, and for us they weren’t pretty. FantasyScope was ID 111, and we finished near last out of 22 forecasters, no matter the methodology. Still, it was a valuable experience for me, and given me all sorts of motivation to improve what we have to offer in next year’s projections. A more detailed analysis after the jump.
Over-Under: Jason Bay and Magglio Ordonez
People who play fantasy baseball classically overvalue the most recent year. Someone hits 30 HR and drives in 100 runs, so they’ve gotta be a 2nd rounder, right? Not always. Probably the worst thing you can do is to value a player by his career year, because you’ll always pay too much. There are some telltale signs that you could be looking at a career season; but let’s talk more specifically, shall we?
2010 FantasyScope projections in the works
Alright, our first stab at projecting players was admittedly flawed. With the 2009 regular season tucked away, we are already working hard at improving our system to bring you the most accurate projections possible. Here’s a sneak peak at some of the things we are working into thus year’s projections:
2010 Changes in positional eligibility
An unfortunate fact of life is that players sometimes change positions from year to year. Sometimes it’s beneficial, but usually it means that you won’t get quite as much value out of the player. We will try to maintain a list here of changes as reported in the media, to give you a leg up on draft day. As always, you should check your league rules to make sure.
2010 Closers list
We will keep this list updated as we learn more about who will be closing for each team in the Majors come Opening Day 2010.
2009 Wrap: Top 30 in OF
And finally the top 30 OF according to fPAA this year. Read more…
