Waiver Wire: Which young hurler to choose?

There are a number of promising young arms who have been promoted to a big league job already. Some of them have had it rougher than others, but there’s a good chance some of them will stabilize and give you very nice fantasy production the rest of the year. How do you pick a winner?

Waiver Wire: Corey Hart

I was just as surprised as anyone when I saw Corey Hart hit the waiver wire in two of my leagues. With a .245-29-4-18-3 start to the season, I know that he hasn’t been worth the high pick he likely cost for you to draft; but is it too early to give up on Hart?

Profile: Jason Bartlett

Looking around the league, you may be surprised (shocked) to find Jason Bartlett hitting .376-29-6-23-12. He’s been a pleasant surprise at the shortstop this year, but only those who picked him up early seem to know about him. If he still happens to be available in your league, you should snap him up, and yesterday.

fPAR: 2009 Running fantasy values

Face it. During the fantasy season, it’s easy to lose perspective, and you can’t see the forest for the trees. zOMG! Someone just dropped (insert big name, little production player)! I gotta buy low and get him on the cheap! That’s right, but only some of the time. One of the great things about our fPAR player valuation system is that you can use it to evaluate any past performance, i.e. year-to-date numbers. As of May 10th, here are your top 10 fantasy players:

Over-Under: Matt Cain and Justin Verlander

This time we profile two well-known pitchers and break down why we think they’re over- and underrated, respectively.

2009 Profile: Aaron Hill

One of the less heralded fantasy performers this season hails from Toronto. 2B Aaron Hill is a big reason that the Blue Jays are leading the AL with 176 runs scored and hold a 19-10 record. Did you know he’s put up a .357-22-6-24-2 fantasy line thus far? In a standard 5×5 league, that makes him more valuable than Chase Utley (though not Ian Kinsler, who has just been white hot). What’s behind this breakout, is it for real, and how long can it last?

Closers: The changes begin

Not even one month into the season, and teams are already naming new closers. Here are some guys you can pick up if you really need saves:

Waiver Wire: Nyjer Morgan

You might have noticed that the Pirates have a new leadoff hitter this year with an unusual name. Nyjer Morgan is a 28-year old speedster who is finally getting his shot with Pittsburgh. As an older prospect, there’s not a whole lot of upside; we pretty much know what he’s going to be. He doesn’t walk quite enough, he strikes out a little too much, etc. Given that he’s playing for Pittsburgh, he’s not garnering much attention, much as it took owners some time to catch on to Nate McLouth, he’ll be available for some time in most leagues. He’s an aggressive baserunner who succeeded on about 74-75% of his attempts in the minors, and he’s getting regular PAs right now.

Over-Under: Shane Victorino and Carlos Guillen

Overrated

Shane Victorino is that rare speedster who can also hit for some average, making him a much better source of steals than say, Willy Taveras. With an ADP of 56.1, people are happily taking him as a mid-5th rounder in most fantasy drafts. By my measure, however, that’s too steep a price to pay for a .289-92-12-55-29 performer. The hit you’ll take in the HR and RBI categories if you draft him as a regular makes him more of a 9th round pick in my book. A much better pick also going in the 5th round: Jacoby Ellsbury of the Red Sox, who will likely hit for a little more average and could swipe 15-20 more bags.

2009 fPAR rankings

You asked for it.. And now after tweaking the points above replacement factors, I’ve completed the fPAR player rankings for 2009. Not only do we give you a ranked list, but also a point value for each player, so you can group them into tiers and maximize value.