Sean Casey to Detroit

The Tigers dealt a minor leaguer to get Sean Casey from the Pirates, a steady first baseman and underrated bat. Manager Jim Leyland is very familiar with Casey, and they have a good rapport already. This is a very slick move for Detroit, whose former first baseman, Chris Shelton, was struggling. Since his torrid April, Shelton has been hitting a mediocre .260 with only 7 HR.

Looks like they are doing everything they can in Detroit to prove me wrong about their second half slide. I still think they have bigger challenges to face, however. Kenny Rogers is notorious for his second half fades, and the Tigers have been lucky about injuries thus far. When their young pitchers start hitting the wall with tired arms, we’ll see how well they fare.

Bobby Abreu is a Yankee

Bobby Abreu owners, rejoice. Abreu is now a member of the New York Yankees, and his production numbers should come back into line, if not surpass what he has done in Philly. This blockbuster trade saw Brian Cashman send four second-tier prospects to Philadelphia to land Abreu and pitcher Cory Lidle. What a steal.

Cory Lidle will be useful at the back of the New York rotation. I’ve actually liked him at times, and he’s shown stretches where he’s looked quite good. He may not give great ERA or strikeout numbers in the AL, but with that potent Yankee offense, he may get on a win streak, a la Chien-Ming Wang.

You gotta like Cincinnati’s bullpen now, right? They traded two prospects and acquired Rheal Cormier from the Phillies and Kyle Lohse from the Twins. Wayne Krivsky is serious about beefing up their pitching for the stretch, but will this team have enough time to gel come September. Mainly because of the loss of Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez, their offense will take a significant hit, so downgrade all Reds position players in your fantasy rankings.

Rangers score Carlos Lee

It’s been reported that Carlos Lee has been traded to the Texas Rangers along with outfield prospect Nelson Cruz in return for Francisco Cordero, Kevin Mench, Laynce Nix and prospect Julian Cordero.

For the Rangers, this looks like a great deal, provided they can sign Carlos Lee to a contract extension. Lee is having an excellent year thus far, and is moving into the friendly confines of the Ballpark in Arlington. That won’t hurt his power numbers any. His presence takes the Texas lineup from good to quite dangerous. The Rangers had soured on both Mench and Nix as outfield prospects, and will be getting a marquee guy in Carlos Lee.
Milwaukee was looking at losing Lee after this season, so this trade works out very well for them. After their recent slide, they must have given up on the NL wild card. This is probably wise, since their young players could use another year of seasoning before mounting any serious run. Kevin Mench makes up for some of the pop they lost in Lee, and Laynce Nix could become a starting outfielder. Perhaps this is a sign that Geoff Jenkins or Brady Clark might be traded as well?

Francisco Cordero has been a fairly good closer in the past, but is struggling a lot this year. At his age, there’s no guarantee he will even get it back. But with Derrick Turnbow blowing saves in Milwaukee, he should get a shot at the closer’s job there. Pick him up while you can.

Waiting for the deadline

There have only been a few minor trades thus far, but this is the last week for teams to trade before the non-waiver deadline, so expect a couple of major moves before next Tuesday.

Completed moves

Perhaps the biggest move so far has been Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez for Gary Majewski and Bill Bray.
Then there was the trade of 1B/3B Shea Hillenbrand from the Toronto Blue Jays to the Giants. The Giants continue to load up on veteran players, and Hillenbrand fills a big hole at first base. In order to snag the .300 hitter with below average power, San Francisco gave up hard-throwing Jeremy Accardo and got swingman Vinnie Chulk. Accardo is developing into a good reliever who can get strikeouts, and Chulk has some flexibility in how he can be used, though his stuff is not overpowering.

RP Scott Williamson to the Padres in return for P Fabian Jimenez and P Joel Santo. The Cubs, who have fallen out of contention, are just getting rid of a bloated veteran contract and picking up some young arms for their system. This move has very little fantasy impact, but this trade could signal that the Padres are deepening their pen in preparation to move stud RP Scott Linebrink. Linebrink has decent value as a dominating setup man, but if he’s traded to a contender in need of a closer (think Detroit), his value could increase dramatically.

The Atlanta Braves fulfilled their need for a closer by trading for Bob Wickman earlier. This is a calculated risk, and a great stopgap solution for the rising Braves. The Cleveland Indians received a good-hitting catching prospect in return, and cleared the way for CL Fausto Carmona to have a shot. Don’t be surprised if they go after another reliever, though, just in case.

Possible moves

A lot of contenders are still shopping, and some big names have been mentioned as possible trade bait. Some big bats are available, but it seems that pitching is rather scarce.

Alfonso Soriano is rumored to be on the block. Again. He can provide a big bat in the outfield, but do you really want a guy that gets traded almost every year? With the losses they’ve suffered in the outfield this season, the Yankees are looking very closely at him.

Julio Lugo is in his free agency year, and the Tampa Bay Rays are looking for a big return on the steady shortstop. Lugo is still young, and is looking for a four year payday. The Toronto Blue Jays have been hurting at short all season, and would love to land Lugo.
Baltimore has been rumored to be shopping Miguel Tejada, though they will be asking for premium young talent in return. This one doesn’t seem likely to pan out. Owner Peter Angelos continues to be a roadblock to trades like this one.

Billy Beane is in a pennant race, and will not easily deal Barry Zito. With the recent lack of talent in their farm system, though, I think the Athletics would have to trade Zito if offered the right package.

Boston’s decimated starting rotation needs some help fast. There’s too much pressure there to try and get by with Kyle Snyder, Abe Alvarez and Kason Gabbard to fill the 4 AND 5 spots. Look for them to deal. The Rockies have expressed interest in veteran Red Sox relievers Julian Tavarez and Rudy Seanez, and Theo Epstein is falling over himself trying to unload them fast enough.

Milwaukee has several players that could be traded, including slugger Carlos Lee. Not many teams will be enthusiatic about trading young talent for Lee, however.

Bob Wickman traded to Atlanta

Well, the Cleveland Indians have finally traded 37 year old closer Bob Wickman to the Atlanta Braves. In return they recieved catching prospect Maximiliano Ramirez. Wickman had a career year in 2005 (45 saves), but his declining auxiliary stats suggest that it’s time to stick a fork in him. The surging Braves only need him to perform for this year’s playoff run, though, and he does solidify a shaky bullpen for manager Bobby Cox. Wickman will get more save chances on his new team, but his conversion percentage is likely to drop a little. His fantasy value increases a bit with this trade.

Pick up his replacement, Fausto Carmona, while you can. He’s a better bet than Wickman at this point. Carmona throws some good heat, and has posted a 3.74 ERA in 43.1 IP with 34 K and just 13 BB. His WHIP stands at a very nice 1.34 for the season. After three unremarkable starts in May, Carmona has allowed just three runs in 26.1 IP coming out of the bullpen for the Indians.

Under the Radar

Welcome to Under the Radar, a look at some hot players at each position who might be going unnoticed in your league. I try not to list marginal players who get hot, but rather good players or prospects who are starting to reach their potential.

Catcher
This position is a problem for almost everyone, unless you were lucky enough to grab Joe Mauer (one of my breakout picks for this year, BTW). I waited just a bit too long in my drafts and ended up with Jorge Posada and Ivan Rodriguez on my teams. Not bad, but summer slumping has me looking for a backup bat.
A lot of people took notice in the first half when Brian McCann started hitting for Atlanta, but when he hit the DL, people forgot about him. Well, guess what? He’s back healthy and at it again, hitting .351/.409/.548 on the season with 10 HR and 42 RBI. He’s even picked it up a little in July, going deep five times to the tune of .345/.379/.673. Not bad for a free agent catcher. I found McCann on the free agents list on two of my four leagues, and promptly dropped Posada. McCann’s been doing it long enough that he’s a fairly safe bet.

First Base
The Braves’ resurgence is largely due to the team hitting extremely well over the past month or so. Never count out those Braves, eh? One guy who’s been doing his share is Adam LaRoche. After some major struggles, he’s finally getting it, and is putting together a rather decent season. In July, he’s hitting .400/.418/.740, and over the last month he’s hitting .350 with 6 HR in 80 AB.

Second Base
Talk about hot. Long touted as a top prospect for the Padres, Josh Barfield is hitting an unbelievable .538/.579/.731 in 52 AB in July, with a batting average of .451 over the last month. He’ll steal some bases for you as well, so get him while he’s hot.

Third Base
Mark Teahen may not have a lot of power, and he plays for the Royals, but that’s exactly why he’ll be available in your league, despite hitting .327/.444/.712 for July. I’ve never been impressed with this guy as a third base prospect until recently, but the guy hits anybody and everybody. He could really help out a team with a slumping Troy Glaus, for example.

Shortstop
Do you know who the shortstop for the San Diego Padres is? His name is Khalil Greene, and he’s an excellent defender and team leader. He’s no Miguel Tejada, but his bat can catch up to the rest of his game at times. His July numbers: .404/.439/.654 with 3 HR in 52 AB. He would be a very nice temporary fix if you need help here.

Outfield
He got off to a really bad start, but Juan Rivera is really coming through for the Angels these days. Check out these numbers: .304/.375/.482 in June, and .373/.421/.824 with 7 HR in July already. Hard to argue with that kind of production, right?

I guess to be really fair, I need to list at least one more outfielder… I’ll go with Jim Edmonds here. Everyone called him old and dismissed him about a month ago, but he’s shown some real signs of life recently. Try .294/.393/.745 in July with 6 HR. Remember that he, Pujols and Rolen bat in the same lineup, so the production should be there.

Starting Pitchers
Two years of sub-4.00 ERA at Coors can’t be wrong, right? Aaron Cook’s sinker is the real deal, and they should pay whever they need to pay to keep him around. Cook’s not going to amass a ton of wins for you, but solid starters are hard to come by these days. He’s been about as consistent as they come, and believe it or not, he pitches about the same at Coors or on the road (3.59 ERA, 1.35 WHIP).

The streaking Twins are riding the starting pitching of Johan Santana, Francisco Liriano and Brad Radke. he first two are gone in any league, but Radke is way undervalued. After a horrible start, Brad has really tightened it up, going 3-1 in June with a 2.09 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP, and he’s got a 3.75 ERA in July with a 1.33 WHIP. He won’t strike out many, but when this guy is on, he doesn’t walk anyone.

Relievers
You already know one of the guys I’m gonna list here, Eddie Guardado. Cincinnati gave up a lot to solidify their bullpen, and it should help them stay in close games, giving Guardado some good save chances. The question is, will their offense and defense be okay after such a big shakeup this late in the season?

Okay, this is not the most glorious list, but Brian Meadows is doing a decent job in Tampa Bay for now. He’s notched 5 saves over the last month with a 2.08 ERA and 0.69 WHIP. Pick him up if you need saves.

Where’s Jonny?

A few of you might be in the same predicament I am, namely wondering what to do with a certain Jonny Gomes. After slamming 21 HR in just 348 AB last season and boasting healthy numbers in all categories (.282/.372/.534), I was certain that this guy was all set to break out. But here we are in mid-June, and Jonny’s line is not so great:

.241/.344/.493 with 18 HR, 44 R and 52 RBI in 290 AB.

I don’t know what to say. The guy is still getting on base, the power is still there, but he’s just not hitting and not producing all that much. A closer look at his splits reveals that while he has dominated left-handed pitching this year (7 HR in 70 AB, .357/.471/.757), righties have figured out how to pitch to him. Platoon players are not generally worth fantasy roster spots, but the guy isn’t doing THAT bad, right? I’m not quite ready to give up on Gomes, but the Tampa Bay Rays are going nowhere fast and have a ton of top-flight outfield prospects coming up. Maybe a trade is just what the doctor ordered to wake up Gomes’ bat. For example, the Twins are in need of a power bat, and they just released their DH, Ruben Sierra. The Angels have been chasing a big bat all season as well. I’m gonna stash him on my bench until the trading deadline, just in case.

Reds, Nationals trade eight

Not quite sure what Wayne Krivsky was thinking here. The Reds’ bullpen is bad, I’ll give him that, but I don’t know that you go trading Felipe Lopez and Austin Kearns to fix it.. My gut is I don’t like this trade for the Reds. Royce Clayton is a career journeyman, and nothing but a stopgap. Apparently they thought enough of Chris Denorfia that they traded away their starting right fielder. I would never give up so much for a couple of relievers, unless they were much better than Majewski and Bray. Well, I guess only time will tell about this one.

The Nationals did well to snag two guys entering the primes of their careers. Both Lopez and Kearns have very good potential as hitters, which the Nationals could really use right now. Lopez is a big upgrade over Royce Clayton at short, and Kearns will push out Jose Guillen, who has struggled mightily this year. CF Marlon Byrd is being reassigned along with his .223 average, and former Oriole Luis Matos has been signed to take his place. The Nats have retooled with a very young and athletic team, I like what they’ve done this year.

Fantasy Impact

Felipe Lopez had a breakout season in 2005 and was an All-Star last year. He hasn’t come close to matching that performance this year, but he is still hitting .268 with 9 HR and 23 SB. Those numbers are in line with his second half performance last year (.278/.350/.451) and not that bad for a backup fantasy shortstop, should you experience an injury. He is still getting on base (.356 OBP), which will allow him to keep scoring runs atop the Nationals batting order. I don’t expect him to improve much over his first half stats in Washington.

It seems like they have been waiting in Cincinnati forever for Austin Kearns to break out, but the guy’s still only 26 years old. Kearns has been injured often, but has demonstrated stretches of good hitting with some pop. He’s managed 16 HR and 50 RBI this season. If he can stay healthy, he may be good for 25+ HR and almost 100 RBI. Washington’s offense is still rather weak, but Kearns will play a key role and may pile up some decent numbers.

Let the games begin! (again)

I have to say up front that I’m a Red Sox fan. I work across the street from Fenway Park, and I can get discount tickets through my work, what can I say? I love the way they are playing defense, even if the pitching has been only so-so apart from Schilling, Timlin and Papelbon. You may see some anti-Yanks bias here. But at least I admitted it at the start, right? Now down to business…

Alright, there are a ton of first half analyses out there already. Apart from the obvious stuff, there are some things I have to disagree with some sportswriters about.

The Detroit Tigers are not for real (yet). The Tigers are young, and their rookies will take their lumps. With some of their key veterans like Pudge Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez being injury-prone, don’t look for them to keep up their torrid pace. Verlander  has been great so far, but he’s never pitched more than 130 innings as a pro. He’s already approaching that number now. They will fall back in the AL Central, finishing 2nd or 3rd. If the Twins get some hitting, Detroit could finish as far back as 4th. I’m really glad for players like Chris Shelton and Placido Polanco, who are finally getting the chance to play full-time. They have a nice core of guys, no arguing that, and they could be looking at the playoffs as early as 2007. Yeah, my prediction stands even IF they get John Smoltz.

The White Sox will NOT repeat. They’re good. Oh yes, they’re good. But they have holes. Uribe and Anderson aren’t hitting, Podsednik is nowhere to be found and can Jermaine Dye maintain that pace? Both he and Thome are injury risks. That being said, they have a very strong rotation and a top bullpen. They play defense, and they play hard. With their style of play, they’ll be tough to beat. But they won’t last all the way this time.

Keepers/Who to Trade For
Jake Peavy, SP. There’s a great article over at Baseball Analysts explaining why. My sentiments exactly. Don’t be fooled by the ERA and the W-L numbers.

Francisco Liriano, SP. Man, did the Giants ever get fleeced in that trade. Liriano is the real deal, everyone agrees. He’s only lost one start since joining the rotation this season (if you can call 3 ER in 6 IP struggling).

Mark Teixeira, 1B. People (including me) didn’t draft Big Tex as high as #3 for a half in which he hit just .275 with 9 HR and 49 RBI. This guy is just too good to keep playing at this level. Tex is a legitimate 40 HR threat most seasons, so look for him to make up for some lost time in the second half. He’s .303/.324/.515 for July so far, BTW. Lots of owners are losing patience, and might dump him at a discount.

Manny Ramirez, OF. People seem to be down on Manny this year, but the guy’s hitting .306/.434/.615 with 24 dingers. What more are we expecting from him exactly? Snag him before disappointment about the All-Star game wears off.

Randy Johnson, SP. This one I’m not fully convinced of, but if you need pitching, it might be worth a gamble. Yeah, he’s old. Yeah, he’s never looked this vulnerable before. The 5.13 ERA is a little hard to swallow, but remember the offense that backs him got him 10 wins anyway. He’s healthy, having 114 IP this first half. And last season, Big Unit’s numbers were really good after the ASB (8-2, 3.31 ERA, 0.99 WHIP). I wouldn’t bet against this nasty lefty yet.

Dontrelle Willis, SP. If he’s traded, it can only increase his value. Dontrelle will pick it up in the second half, never mind that wimpy 6-7 record.

Aramis Ramirez, 3B. Horrid start, torrid July (.314/.375/.629). Now that Derrek Lee is healthy and back in the lineup, you can expect great things from Aramis once more.

Eric Byrnes, OF. No matter what this guy does at the plate, no one seems to ever know who he is. Byrnes is back in form, and he’s putting up a line of .292/.352/.522. Hard to argue with that kind of production. He’s also good for some stolen bases too, a nice bonus.

Mike Lowell, 3B. Lowell is back, no more questions. .307/.359/.516 with 42 XBH at the ASB? I doubted too at the beginning, but now I’m a believer.

Melvin Mora, 3B. Another underappreciated player worth having. One guy actually dropped him in my league. I’d have picked him off the wire had I not had Scott Rolen and Chipper Jones already.

Marcus Giles, 2B. The younger Giles’ career numbers (.286/.363/.452) suggest that he’ll pick it up a bit in the second half. He’ll need to in order for the Braves not to embarrass themselves.

Jhonny Peralta, SS. Jhonny come lately, but he’s coming hard, .297/.350/.541 for July. He’s looked bad all season, but it hasn’t been that bad. And he’s got some talent in there somewhere.

Brian Roberts, 2B. He’s only hit 1 HR, but a .296 average, 17 doubles and 22 SBs is nothing to sneeze at. He may even be unclaimed in some leagues. Pick him up if you need help here.

Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B. Told you I’m a Sox fan. The guy isn’t a standout, but he’s no slouch either (.392 OBP). 60 R in the first half, and he might have captured the leadoff spot for Boston for good.

Eddie Guardado, RP. I didn’t even realize this trade had happened, but he’ll get a shot at closing in Cincinnati. If you’re hurting for saves, it could be worth your while.

Garrett Atkins, 3B. Atkins is not really a slugger, but he’s talented and he plays at Coors. .306/.383/.494 with 26 doubles and 11 HRs bodes well for his future. Good thing defense doesn’t count in fantasy baseball.

Brad Hawpe, OF. Another guy who wouldn’t be on this list if not for the virtue of playing a mile high. Often overshadowed by Matt Holliday, but he’s got a line of .310/.392/.562 with 15 HRs so far, check it out.

Who to Trade Away
Brad Penny, SP. After his All-Star performance, the oft-injured Penny’s value may never be higher than it is right now. There’s a chance he’ll keep pitching really well, but remember that he had sore shoulder problems earlier this year.

Joe Crede, 3B. Crede is having a breakout season, but he’s not quite as talented as his numbers might suggest. I’d sell high on him if I could pick up an adequate replacement (like a Kevin Youkilis, for example).

Corey Patterson, OF. He’s playing really well, but he’s another OBP-challenged player and the Orioles are not going anywhere. His solid performance and 31 SBs ought to bring you a nice return.

Jeff Franceour, OF. Sorry, I’m just not a fan. This guy can hit with power, and if hot, is REALLY appealing. But Franceour is one of those wild swingers who doesn’t get on base (.728 OPS) and doesn’t score. Try to dump him off on some poor owner looking for HRs.