Let the games begin! (again)

I have to say up front that I’m a Red Sox fan. I work across the street from Fenway Park, and I can get discount tickets through my work, what can I say? I love the way they are playing defense, even if the pitching has been only so-so apart from Schilling, Timlin and Papelbon. You may see some anti-Yanks bias here. But at least I admitted it at the start, right? Now down to business…

Alright, there are a ton of first half analyses out there already. Apart from the obvious stuff, there are some things I have to disagree with some sportswriters about.

The Detroit Tigers are not for real (yet). The Tigers are young, and their rookies will take their lumps. With some of their key veterans like Pudge Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez being injury-prone, don’t look for them to keep up their torrid pace. Verlander  has been great so far, but he’s never pitched more than 130 innings as a pro. He’s already approaching that number now. They will fall back in the AL Central, finishing 2nd or 3rd. If the Twins get some hitting, Detroit could finish as far back as 4th. I’m really glad for players like Chris Shelton and Placido Polanco, who are finally getting the chance to play full-time. They have a nice core of guys, no arguing that, and they could be looking at the playoffs as early as 2007. Yeah, my prediction stands even IF they get John Smoltz.

The White Sox will NOT repeat. They’re good. Oh yes, they’re good. But they have holes. Uribe and Anderson aren’t hitting, Podsednik is nowhere to be found and can Jermaine Dye maintain that pace? Both he and Thome are injury risks. That being said, they have a very strong rotation and a top bullpen. They play defense, and they play hard. With their style of play, they’ll be tough to beat. But they won’t last all the way this time.

Keepers/Who to Trade For
Jake Peavy, SP. There’s a great article over at Baseball Analysts explaining why. My sentiments exactly. Don’t be fooled by the ERA and the W-L numbers.

Francisco Liriano, SP. Man, did the Giants ever get fleeced in that trade. Liriano is the real deal, everyone agrees. He’s only lost one start since joining the rotation this season (if you can call 3 ER in 6 IP struggling).

Mark Teixeira, 1B. People (including me) didn’t draft Big Tex as high as #3 for a half in which he hit just .275 with 9 HR and 49 RBI. This guy is just too good to keep playing at this level. Tex is a legitimate 40 HR threat most seasons, so look for him to make up for some lost time in the second half. He’s .303/.324/.515 for July so far, BTW. Lots of owners are losing patience, and might dump him at a discount.

Manny Ramirez, OF. People seem to be down on Manny this year, but the guy’s hitting .306/.434/.615 with 24 dingers. What more are we expecting from him exactly? Snag him before disappointment about the All-Star game wears off.

Randy Johnson, SP. This one I’m not fully convinced of, but if you need pitching, it might be worth a gamble. Yeah, he’s old. Yeah, he’s never looked this vulnerable before. The 5.13 ERA is a little hard to swallow, but remember the offense that backs him got him 10 wins anyway. He’s healthy, having 114 IP this first half. And last season, Big Unit’s numbers were really good after the ASB (8-2, 3.31 ERA, 0.99 WHIP). I wouldn’t bet against this nasty lefty yet.

Dontrelle Willis, SP. If he’s traded, it can only increase his value. Dontrelle will pick it up in the second half, never mind that wimpy 6-7 record.

Aramis Ramirez, 3B. Horrid start, torrid July (.314/.375/.629). Now that Derrek Lee is healthy and back in the lineup, you can expect great things from Aramis once more.

Eric Byrnes, OF. No matter what this guy does at the plate, no one seems to ever know who he is. Byrnes is back in form, and he’s putting up a line of .292/.352/.522. Hard to argue with that kind of production. He’s also good for some stolen bases too, a nice bonus.

Mike Lowell, 3B. Lowell is back, no more questions. .307/.359/.516 with 42 XBH at the ASB? I doubted too at the beginning, but now I’m a believer.

Melvin Mora, 3B. Another underappreciated player worth having. One guy actually dropped him in my league. I’d have picked him off the wire had I not had Scott Rolen and Chipper Jones already.

Marcus Giles, 2B. The younger Giles’ career numbers (.286/.363/.452) suggest that he’ll pick it up a bit in the second half. He’ll need to in order for the Braves not to embarrass themselves.

Jhonny Peralta, SS. Jhonny come lately, but he’s coming hard, .297/.350/.541 for July. He’s looked bad all season, but it hasn’t been that bad. And he’s got some talent in there somewhere.

Brian Roberts, 2B. He’s only hit 1 HR, but a .296 average, 17 doubles and 22 SBs is nothing to sneeze at. He may even be unclaimed in some leagues. Pick him up if you need help here.

Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B. Told you I’m a Sox fan. The guy isn’t a standout, but he’s no slouch either (.392 OBP). 60 R in the first half, and he might have captured the leadoff spot for Boston for good.

Eddie Guardado, RP. I didn’t even realize this trade had happened, but he’ll get a shot at closing in Cincinnati. If you’re hurting for saves, it could be worth your while.

Garrett Atkins, 3B. Atkins is not really a slugger, but he’s talented and he plays at Coors. .306/.383/.494 with 26 doubles and 11 HRs bodes well for his future. Good thing defense doesn’t count in fantasy baseball.

Brad Hawpe, OF. Another guy who wouldn’t be on this list if not for the virtue of playing a mile high. Often overshadowed by Matt Holliday, but he’s got a line of .310/.392/.562 with 15 HRs so far, check it out.

Who to Trade Away
Brad Penny, SP. After his All-Star performance, the oft-injured Penny’s value may never be higher than it is right now. There’s a chance he’ll keep pitching really well, but remember that he had sore shoulder problems earlier this year.

Joe Crede, 3B. Crede is having a breakout season, but he’s not quite as talented as his numbers might suggest. I’d sell high on him if I could pick up an adequate replacement (like a Kevin Youkilis, for example).

Corey Patterson, OF. He’s playing really well, but he’s another OBP-challenged player and the Orioles are not going anywhere. His solid performance and 31 SBs ought to bring you a nice return.

Jeff Franceour, OF. Sorry, I’m just not a fan. This guy can hit with power, and if hot, is REALLY appealing. But Franceour is one of those wild swingers who doesn’t get on base (.728 OPS) and doesn’t score. Try to dump him off on some poor owner looking for HRs.