Pitching success at a young age?

This year seems to be exceptional in terms of young pitchers breaking into the league and having a lot of success. Just look at Francisco Liriano, Justin Verlander, Matt Cain, Jonathan Papelbon, Joel Zumaya. The list could go on. But is it a really exceptional year?

I set out to look at the combined stats of pitchers by age over the last three years. 2006 stats are only through Sept 1. Kudos to ESPN’s excellent MLB stats page, which lets you break down the numbers in a lot of ways. Seeing as which league you pitch in makes a difference, I stuck to the AL pitchers only.

I had some problems with tables here, so I am simply linking the Excel file I made. See the trends for yourself. I also included a little tab for rookie performances over the past three years. Interesting.

There are a few surprising trends here. If you look at winning percentage, ERA and WHIP, it seems like the oldest pitchers do quite well. Here’s where selectiion makes a big difference. Those older pitchers are guys like Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, etc. They are not average pitchers, but good enough to stick around that long. They throw the averages way off.

Young pitchers tend to strike out more batters, but walk more batters as well. They tend to not have as good winning percentages. There are a decent number of 22-year-olds who pitch in the bigs, but the ERA and other peripherals improve a lot soon after. A lot more 23- and 24-year-olds stick in the majors. So you might aim for your prospects hitting the majors around then. Of course, Verlander’s numbers throw off the performance of 22-year-olds this season, but as a group, they did not really outperform previous classes.

The pitchers with the most games started fall between the ages of 24 to 32, with a steep drop-off at age 33. So unless you’ve got a premium arm, you’d best think twice about signing a free agent like Matt Clement to be a starter. Not only that, but there’s a pretty steep dip in IP/G at age 29, suggesting that a lot of pitchers are beginning to become reliever material at that age. The workhorses of the league who log the most innings are young arms between the ages of 24 to 28. I wonder if pitch counts help the average starter to prolong his career beyond that.

Fantasy Pleasant Surprise Awards for 2006

These are the guys who surprised most at every position this season, and they deserve to be recognized for their achievements. Be honest, you might have chosen them as sleepers, but you NEVER guessed what kind of great numbers they’d put up.

Brian McCann, C, ATL. The Braves knew that this guy could hit, but I don’t think they expected a .333/.391/.570 line to go with 23 HR and 88 RBI in just 421 AB. That’s a HR every 18.3 AB, for those who care about these things. Had he not gotten injured, that projects to a 100 RBI season. For a catcher, that’s seriously mashalicious. Though he only threw out 19/87 (21.8%) of baserunners, he fielded his position solidly, and his CERA of 4.48 is respectable. McCann has a bright future in the big leagues, though it may not be at catcher if he sticks with the Braves. Prized prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia should be pushing him for playing time by the end of 2007.

Honorable mention: David Ross, CIN.

Ryan Howard, 1B, PHI. I don’t think anyone would have thought that Howard could duplicate his minor league HR numbers at the major-league level. We all penciled him in for 30-35 round-trippers, but 58!? That’s fantastic. He also hit a healthy .314/.420/.673 with 143 RBI. This guy is just strong as an ox. How does Howard live up to this sophomore performance? Cutting down on his 173 strikeouts in 2006 would be a good start.

Honorable mention: Nick Johnson, WAS.

Ray Durham, 2B, SF. Durham needs to get some recognition for what he’s doing at age 34. He’s posted a great .294/.361/.538 line, along with 25 HR and 92 RBI. These are Jeff Kent numbers here. At an offensively-challenged position like second base, he was a godsend in a year when normally reliable players like Marcus Giles struggled.

Honorable mention: Dan Uggla, FLO.

Carlos Guillen, SS, DET. Finally a player from the AL makes this list. Derek Jeter is having a great season too, but Guillen has matched his numbers and played a major role in the Tigers’ pennant chase. He boasts a .317/.398/.525 line with 41 doubles, 19 HR, 90 R, 80 RBI and even 19 SB for good measure.

Honorable mention: Hanley Ramirez, FLO.

Garret Atkins, 3B, COL. Okay, he plays in Colorado, but his offensive numbers surpass David Wright’s, Humidor notwithstanding. His line is .321/.398/.546 with 109 R, 47 doubles, 27 HR and 114 RBI. He’s had a tremendous season, even with Todd Helton’s decline.

Honorable mention: Freddy Sanchez, PIT.

Alfonso Soriano, LF, WAS. First of all, it’s a surprise that he’s playing left field (where he belongs, BTW). But his first 40/40 season was a pleasant surprise indeed, even in a weak lineup. His line: .285/.357/.576 with 116 R, 41 doubles, 46 HR, 95 RBI and 41 SB. Unlike some of the other sluggers, he belts a lot of doubles as well, making him a fantasy monster.

Honorable mention: Barry Bonds, SF.

Gary Matthews, Jr., CF, TEX. It took him a while to break out, but break out he did. .318/.377/.505 is great for a centerfielder not named Andruw, Vernon or Carlos. He also had 101 R, 42 doubles, 19 HR, 79 RBI and played some memorable defense for the Rangers.

Honorable mention: Vernon Wells, TOR.

Jermaine Dye, RF, CHW. And we thought all of his good years were behind him. Boy did Dye prove us wrong. I don’t think ANYBODY drafted him as high as he should have gone this season. .316/.386/.622 with 102 R, 43 HR and 119 RBI is deserving of a first rounder in any draft.

Honorable mention: Michael Cuddyer, MIN.

Frank Thomas, DH, OAK. This is the year of sweet revenge by older sluggers who were unceremoniously cast off by their old teams. After a slow start, Thomas has really emerged, hitting .269/.380/.545 with 38 HR and 107 RBI, leading an anemic A’s offense to the playoffs.

Honorable mention: Jim Thome, CHW.

Aaron Harang, SP, CIN. Harang has really come into his own as the ace of a Reds team who were unlikely contenders this season. His durability (225.1 IP) and 15-11 record came as a surprise to many in the fantasy community, along with 207 K’s this year.

Honorable mention: Chien-Ming Wang, NYY.

Jonathan Papelbon, RP, BOS. Papelbon came out of nowhere to dominate the closer’s role in Beantown. He converted his first 20 consecutive saves, and has 35 on the season, with a 0.92 ERA. He really came through for the Red Sox, who entered 2006 without a solid plan for the closer’s role.

Honorable mention: J.J. Putz, SEA.

Atlanta re-signs Bob Wickman

The Atlanta Braves re-signed 37-year-old reliever Bob Wickman to a one year contract extension for $6.5 million yesterday. This is a lot of money for what Wickman is, but you can’t argue about what he’s done for them since coming over from Cleveland. This is a very good insurance policy for the Braves, but I wouldn’t expect Wickman to remain the closer for them at this time next season.

Keepers to snag: Starters

In keeper leagues, it’s critical to have a core of good starters to keep you in contention. Everyone drafts the good ones, but it’s finding those diamonds in the rough that can put your team over the top. Here are some good young arms you might want to think about:

Locks

Chien-Ming Wang, NYY. This guy is just 26, and still improving. He doesn’t overpower people at all, but he’s improved a lot this year, cutting down on his walks and HRs. With a ground ball/fly ball ratio of 3.18, he pitches to contact and throws very efficiently (just 14.1 pitches per inning), which allows him to work deeper into games and get that W. Manager Joe Torre has recently expressed his complete confidence in Wang, and he’s not going anywhere. With that Yankees offense behind him, he could quickly pile up the career wins.

Cole Hamels, PHI. Hamels is considered one of those can’t miss prospects, and most of this season, he’s demonstrated why. He still wastes too many pitches, but his stuff is electric. Since the ASB, he’s gone 6-4 with a 3.48 ERA, striking out 84 in just 75 IP. He’s pitching deeper into games, and also shown good control for a young pitcher, walking only 20 in that time.

Scott Olsen, FLO. This 22-year-old has improved as the year has gone on. 6-4 with a 3.67 ERA in the second half, Olsen is seen to have the highest upside of the Marlins’ four rookie pitchers. He’s keeping his strikeouts up, while keeping the HRs better in check.

Jeremy Sowers, CLE. A heralded prospect, Sowers showed that he belongs in the big leagues this year. He went 7-4 with a 3.57 ERA this season, throwing back-to-back shutouts against Minnesota and Seattle on July 22 and July 28. He’s still feeling his way at this level, but he will be an important part of this rotation next year.

Rich Hill, CHC. Hill is 6-2 with a 2.65 ERA since the ASB. Very good numbers, and he’s coming off of a two-hit shutout against the Reds. Finding a guy like him is the bright side to all injuries to the rotation.

Boof Bonser, MIN. No one is laughing at the name any more. With Francisco Liriano out the past month, people said the Twins were doomed. Bonser, a rookie, has stepped in and pitched very well, going 3-3 with a 3.91 ERA in 8 starts. He has struck out 44 batters in 46 IP, while walking only 10. He could very well stick in the rotation next year.

Adam Loewen, BAL. This lefty throws well and keeps the ball down. He’s only surrendered one HR in over 64 IP in the second half. 5-3 with a 4.45 ERA since the ASB, Loewen has had some very good outings against the Yankees and Twins. He’s just 22, but he may be just what the struggling Orioles need in 2007.

Wild Cards

Dave Bush, MIL. Bush is far better than his stat line might suggest. He shows an excellent strikeout/walk ratio, and he knows how to pitch efficiently, as his recent complete game five-hitter shows (he had 10 K’s in that one, albeit against the punchless Astros). Just 26, this guy may be primed to emerge as a very good #2 option along with Ben Sheets. Just keep an eye on him.

Daniel Cabrera, BAL. Well, this wasn’t the year yet, but he’s still only 25 years old. Cabrera is a flamethrower with some control issues who lacks major-league polish. He’ll throw a complete game five-hit shutout one night, then go out and last only three innings his next time out. He has the potential to be dominant, and one more year with Leo Mazzone might just do the trick.

Zach Duke, PIT. Duke consistently comes up as an efficient pitcher. After a forgettable start, he’s gone 5-5 in this second half with a 3.57 ERA. He seems to have found his control again, walking just 18 batters since the ASB (compared with 44 before the break). Of course, everyone said the same thing last year about Duke, but perhaps one year older and wiser will help?

Oliver Perez, NYM. A lefty in the line of Daniel Cabrera, he’s nearly unhittable when he’s on. In four starts for the Mets since being traded, he’s had three forgettable starts and one complete game shutout. A very frustrating long-term project, but the change of scenery might help this guy get straightened out for next season.

Matt Cain, Ace

One of the few bright spots for the San Francisco Giants right now is the pitching of youngster Matt Cain. The Giants looked to the 21-year-old to blossom this year, and he certainly has. Over the past one month, his line looks something like this: 5-0, 42.0 IP, 43 K, 0.21 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. He’s given up ONE earned run over his last six appearances, five of which he’s gone at least seven innings. Now 13-9 on the year with a 3.75 ERA, the Giants should watch his pitch counts and slot him in as their number 1 pitcher next year. Keeper league owners, take note.

Liri-oh-no!

Francisco Liriano owners were overjoyed yesterday to see the rookie take the mound again, after being shut down for over a month, but their joy quickly changed to dismay, as Liriano had to leave the game after two innings with an elbow injury.

You have to believe that the Twins waited as long as they thought they needed to, because there’s no way they would risk the arm of this prize prospect. With Johan Santana, Brad Radke and even Boof Bonser pitching well, they didn’t need to rush him back to the rotation. Liriano has had a pretty cavalier attitude about his arm this whole time, insisting he could still pitch. Now we all know, painfully, that he came back too soon. There’s even some talk that Liriano will need Tommy John surgery, meaning it will be about a year and a half to two years before he will be back to top form. Take note for the 2007 fantasy draft, guys.

Keepers to Snag: Relievers

These are the best young closers, the guys you have to draft first:

Francisco Rodriguez, LAA. At age 24, he has 100 saves and a career 2.30 ERA. This guy is looking like he has a legitimate shot at dwarfing Mariano Rivera’s career numbers, if he can stay healthy.

Jonathan Papelbon, BOS. Serious Rookie of the Year candidate here. You already know about him. He’s listed after KRod here because he’s only done it one year.

Huston Street, OAK. Despite an injury-riddled season, Street has really held it together. Great toughness for a young pitcher. He will be a great closer for years to come.

Mike Gonzalez, PIT. The comparison that keeps coming up is Billy Wagner. That’s a good person to be compared to. He’ll continue to pitch well, and when he gets too pricey, the Pirates will trade him to a contending team, where he’ll really blossom.

Brad Lidge, HOU. Despite his off year, I’d still take this guy in a heartbeat. His struggles have been with inconsistency, whether it’s telegraphing pitches or mechanics or whatever. He’s still Brad Lidge, who dominated the playoffs just one year ago. And he still struck out 93 guys in 65 innings this year!

Bobby Jenks, CHW. Despite a bad spring and bad April, Jenks has proved all the naysayers wrong (including me). He’ll be a fixture for the Sox for quite some time.

Brian Fuentes, COL. Don’t be afraid of drafting this guy, even though he plays for the Rockies. He’s done it for two years now, it ain’t no fluke.

Chad Cordero, WAS. If he played for a different team, I might be more excited about him. Cordero’s been streaky at times, but his final numbers aren’t bad (25 saves, 3.15 ERA).

Chris Ray, BAL. He’s done a very good job in his first year as a closer (31 saves, 3.00 ERA). You’ve just never heard of him because he plays for the Orioles in the same division as Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon and B.J. Ryan.

Francisco Cordero, MIL. Okay, this guy’s not young or new, but he may have found new life in the National League. Check out his line (0.51 ERA, 11 for 11 in save opportunities).

Okay, now everybody knows who the closers are and they are not available for signing. But what you can do in a keeper league is get to know the young setup fireballers who may be in line for a promotion sometime next year. Here are some guys who will be setting up or closing over the next few years who may be available to you:

Joel Zumaya, DET. Todd Jones is ready to check out, and 100 mph Joel is ready to check in. Pick him up NOW! He can be dominant.

Rafael Soriano, SEA. J.J. Putz was nice, but he doesn’t overpower hitters like Soriano does. As soon as Putz falters, this guy is in.

Pat Neshek, MIN. Neshek’s strikeout numbers are phenomenal, and he’s been virtually unhittable this season. It seems that he’s displaced Jesse Crain as the Twins’ closer of the future.

Cla Meredith, SD. Trevor Hoffman had another fine year, but he’s nearly 40 years old. If Meredith’s performance this year means anything, he could be next in line for this job. He’s got a good sinker that would be perfect for closing, if he can handle the pressure.

Johnathan Broxton, LAD. Saito is a very old rookie, and relies on control and deception, but Broxton is a young gunslinger. Should Eric Gagne not return, I think the job will be his.

Keepers to Snag: Second Basemen

Stash ‘em Away 

Robinson Cano, NYY. Cano has improved on his rookie campaign in average, OBP and slugging percentage. Give him a full healthy year in 2007 and he could produce a lot more in that Yankee lineup. He looks to hold that job for quite some time, at least until Chase Utley’s contract is up in Philadelphia.

Marcus Giles, ATL. Some people might have soured on Marcus after a terrible start, but since recovering fully, his post-ASB numbers are very nice: .327/.373/.476. He’s still just 28. Give him an offseason to get healthy and watch his power numbers and steals rise again.

Howie Kendrick, LAA. A highly touted prospect who can hit for contact and field. He’ll be a mainstay after his performance this year. Los Angeles has the prospects and financial resources to make some big things happen this offseason, and that can only help Howie’s numbers. Post-ASB: .311/.346/.475.

Jury’s Still Out

Mark DeRosa, TEX. Could this utilityman have finally found his stroke at age 31? Odds are against it, but DeRosa has shown a lot of consistency this year. His second half numbers are .297/.351/.500, but his career numbers are much more mundane at .278/.313/.414. With Ian Kinsler and Michael Young entrenched at 2B and SS, he may not keep his position eligibility here if he stays. Just keep your feelers out, though, because if he keeps hitting some team will give him a chance next year.

Dan Uggla, FLA. The fantasy surprise of the first half, Uggla quickly won over fantasy owners. But the second half of his rookie campaign has been a little more ugly. His line since the ASB is .259/.324/.472. He does have good pop, with 10 HR in this half, and 23 on the season. Let’s hope that this second half slump is due more to him swinging for the fences rather than pitchers finding a big hole in his swing. Just remember that Uggla was a Rule 5 pick, and not thought of very highly in the minors.

Just a Fluke

Ray Durham, SF. Durham has always been an above-average second baseman, but he’s never been a fantasy must-have before. His .347/.398/.617 line and 11 HR in the second half is hard not to like, but at 34 years old, he will not likely duplicate these numbers again.

Jose Valentin, NYM. Come on, seriously? A career .244 hitter?

Injuries? You don’t know the Haf of it

Travis Hafner has broken his right hand and will be out for the rest of the year. This comes at a very bad time for Hafner owners (like myself), as he was hitting extremely well in the past month.. I’m not even allowed to drop him in my Yahoo league!

Of course, there’s no one you can pick up right now who will replace his production in your lineup, but perhaps this is a time to try and make up some ground on specific stats, like runs or steals. Some suggested replacements:

Ryan Garko, 1B, CLE. With Hafner out, Garko will assume the cleanup hitter responsibilities for the immediate future, unless he slumps something mighty. So far, so good though: he’s second in RBI for the Indians since his Aug 8 callup with 18.

Willy Taveras, OF, HOU. He’s not a very good hitter, but he’s doing well enough right now, and he’s stolen 12 bases in the past month. You might think about him if you need to pass someone in the steals category.

Mike Sweeney, 1B/DH, KC. A proven hitter, yes, but who is there to drive in?

Ryan Shealy, 1B, KC. He’s definitely got power, but I’d prefer to get someone on a stronger team.

Keepers to snag: Shortstops

I could go through all of the positions here, but I’ll stick to the ones which are hard to fill every year.

SHORTSTOP

Locks

Carlos Guillen, DET. Guillen is proving that 2004 was no fluke. He’s had a great and consistent year, including a very nice .331/.406/.533 second half. His post-ASB OPS of .939 leads all shortstops in the majors. He’s just 30 years old, so he’s got a few quality seasons left in him. If he can stay healthy, he can produce about 35 2B, 20 HR and 90 RBI, plus steal about 10-15 bases, all while hitting well over .300. Forget about Julio Lugo. This guy’s a better fantasy play.

Jason Bartlett, MIN. It’s been awhile since the Twins had someone at this position who could hit. Since taking over the starting job mid-season, Bartlett has been slapping the ball all over the field. He won’t produce much power, but boy can he hit, to the tune of .347/.391/.457 in 173 second-half ABs. The Twins’ future looks bright with Bartlett joining Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau as a core of young hitters.

Sky’s the Limit

Hanley Ramirez, FLA. Guess which shortstop leads the majors in steals this half? If you said Jose Reyes, you’d almost be right. Hanley Ramirez, in the midst of a great rookie campaign, has swiped 18 bases since the ASB, and he’s shown no signs of slowing down. Combine that with a .302/.368/.532 second half line, and you’ve got yourself a heck of a player. There’s no telling what kind of numbers he’ll be capable of in his second and third years.

Stephen Drew, ARI. One of the top-rated shortstop prospects in recent years, Drew has had a very successful taste of the bigs, and will almost certainly stick, even at just 23 years old. His line: .309/.347/.494, and he’s got plenty of upside left. He’s still young though, so next year will either be really good or really bad for Drew.

Under the Radar

Yuniesky Betancourt, SEA. The production numbers are not there (just 59 R and 42 RBI), but Betancourt has been solid at the plate for the M’s. Post-ASB numbers: .324/.346/.454. Seattle’s offense has been pathetic for most of the year, but at least he can make contact. If he can learn the strike zone a little better, and get a better slot in the lineup, he could do very well.