O’s sign Aubrey Huff

The Orioles are looking bad this offseason. While division rivals have signed big names like Daisuke Matsuzaka, Frank Thomas and Andy Pettite, they have scored Jay Payton and Jaret Wright. They look slightly less bad today, after signing 1B/OF Aubrey Huff to a 3-year, $20 million contract.

Baltimore has struggled to score runs (and prevent them too, BTW), and while this is not the superstar bat they were seeking this winter, it goes a long way to making them more relevant in the AL East. Huff figures to push Jay Payton from left field to center field or displace Kevin Millar at first base this year. He may also DH some. The Orioles have been on the verge of some big moves this offseason, but rumor has it that they were blocked by owner Peter Angelos. The guy doesn’t think anyone is offering them fair value, and he doesn’t want Miguel Tejada to be traded. How are the O’s going to get the basher they need then? Angelos needs to open up the checkbook more and allow management to handle the team without interference if they are ever to go anywhere.

At least this signing will give them a chance to stay ahead of Tampa Bay in the 2007 standings.

Angels ink Hillenbrand for 1 year, $6.5 million

Shortly after losing outfielder Juan Rivera indefinitely due to a broken leg, the Anaheim Angels signed Shea Hillenbrand to a one year deal. This signing gives them a proven major league hitter (despite the character issues) who can play either corner infield spot or DH. If he gets regular time, Hillenbrand should hit in a decent lineup slot and produce for the Angels, who needed someone who can play third base AND hit.

Zito decides on San Francisco

Barry Zito is said to be ready to sign a 7 year, $126 million contract with the San Francisco Giants. You gotta hand it to Scott Boras, he’s good at what he does. I didn’t see this kind of contract coming for a pitcher like Zito. Zito is a good lefty, almost certainly a #2 on any team, but I don’t know about him headlining a staff (Though he did do relatively well lasst year in Oakland). He’s shown declining secondary stats the past few years, but he’s also been extremely durable, so I guess we’ll see.

Still, this is the one signing for the Giants that almost makes sense, because Barry Zito is just 28 years old. I say almost because Zito will almost certainly get hurt at some point in this seven-year deal, which could get quite costly if it’s a Tommy John-type injury. Now with Zito and Matt Cain, the Giants will be ready to contend in two years, once they shed all the veteran contracts they’ve taken on in the past few years. With Bonds and others gone, the Giants will need to draft and sign well to rebuild. They could be in shape to contend in 2009, but I’d probably count them out for the next two years.

Will the next Albert Pujols please stand?

In 1999, the St. Louis Cardinals drafted a player in the 13th round that would change the face of their team for years to come. After pounding minor league pitching at all levels his first year, this little known player exploded onto the baseball scene in 2001 at just 21 years old. His rookie line? .329/.403/.610 with 37 HR and 130 RBI. And, scarily enough, Albert Pujols has only improved from there. His superlative performance led to his signing a 7-year, $100 million contract in 2004. More recent breakout rookie players who come to mind are Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder, both first basemen.

Was there some way to predict Albert Pujols’ dominance in the major leagues? People who have interviewed Pujols will tell you that it’s his drive to dominate and improve, his lack of satisfaction with himself, that allows him to excel. But are there any statistical indicators that might flag a minor league player as underrated? Let’s take a look at the numbers (courtesy of thebaseballcube.com).

In his only minor league season, Pujols smacked an incredible 55 XBH in 395 AB at the single A level. Being able to not only hit, but hit for power, is an indicator of bat control and maturity at the plate. In all, 43.0% of his hits went for extra bases AND he hit .324. At high A, his average dropped to .284, but his XBH percentage went up to 47.8% (given a very small sample size). Unlike the known stat for isolated power, I don’t weight home runs more because in young players, doubles often develop into HR power with maturity.

Another thing to note is his walks and OBP, another indicator of plate discipline and strike zone control. 38 walks (31 non-intentional) in 398 AB is very good for a power hitter who is mashing against everyone he faces. Posting an OBP of .389 is exceptional for a minor leaguer in his first season.

Pujols handled himself well enough in just three games at triple-A to merit an invite to spring training the following year, and the rest is history. His net line in the minors stands at .314/.378/.543.

Ryan Howard

The 2006 NL rookie of the year was viewed as a can’t miss prospect by many, including Pat Gillick and the Phillies. They were so confident in him that they dealt away All-Star Jim Thome, who now plays for the Chicago White Sox (and quite well, at that). And when given the chance, Howard really delivered, to the tune of .288/.356/.567 in 2005 and an astounding .313/.425/.659 with a major league-leading 58 HR and 149 RBI this past season.

Unlike Pujols, Howard spent 5 years in the minor leagues, with a total line of 299/.386/.547. His XBH% look like this since 2001: 34.8, 32.6, 37.6, 53.2, and 44.9. Despite lower batting averages than Pujols, he never posted an OBP lower than .362. So by these measures, he was way ready way back in 2004.

Prince Fielder

Many people put Prince Fielder in the same class as Howard. He is a natural hitter with huge power potential. In his first season, Fielder posted a .271/.347/.483 line, while battling a nagging injury.

In four years in the minors, Fielder posted a line of .297/.398/.524. His XBH% since 2002: 38.1, 32.5, 39.3 and 44.5. You can see how this simple measure can predict major league success, when combined with overall production. It’s still possible to post a pretty bad bottom line while swinging for the fences, which would artificially inflate XBH%. Also, speedy players get a bonus in XBH%, since they can often stretch singles and doubles into an extra base.

Up Next

The short answer is, there is no Albert Pujols in the works right now. In Triple-A, Colorado’s Jeff Baker might be the closest thing, with a career minor league line of .306/.380/.511, a good walk rate and a 2006 XBH% of 36.7.

At the Double-A level, Kansas City’s Alex Gordon has proved that he’s for real. In his first season, the 22-year old hit .325/.427/.588 with 72 walks in 486 AB and an XBH% of 43.7. He also plays a mean third base. My guess is he’s ready for the big time this year.

Cincinnati’s Joey Votto may be developing into a star. In 2006 he posted a very nice line of .319/.408/.547 with an XBH% of 43.2. He is just 22 years old, a medium-build first baseman who will hit with good power, but he doesn’t have the consistent track record in the minors that these other guys had. Keep an eye on him.

Minnesota’s Erik Lis, a 22-year old first baseman at Single-A, has posted a .323/.389/.556 in one and a half seasons with an XBH% of 41.8. He could be a player in the bigs soon, especially with the Twins badly needing help at DH.

Sergio Pedroza is an outfielder in Tampa Bay’s farm system with an extremely high walk rate and some good power. In two seasons, he’s compiled a .274/.404/.546 line with XBH% of 48.3 and 51.6. He’s someone who bears watching as well.

The Twelve Days of Christmas

Well, I’ve been away for a week, and there have been a lot of minor signings and a few significant moves.. Where to begin?

The Yankees continue to be busy, signing Cuban player Juan Miranda to a four-year major-league contract and also inking starter Kei Igawa for 5 years and $20 million. Miranda features power from the left side of the plate, and can play first base or corner outfield, and will be pushing Andy Phillips and Josh Phelps for a roster spot soon enough. Igawa is not as well known as Boston’s signing Daisuke Matsuzaka, but the lefty may end up being the better bargain, as he required only a measly $26 million posting fee. Any Yankees pitcher is instantly interesting from a fantasy perspective, so watch Igawa carefully.

The Rangers traded for lanky Brandon McCarthy this week, losing hope that they will be able to sign Barry Zito. Scott Boras’ delay tactics are causing widespread panic among pitching-starved GMs. In return for the 23-year old McCarthy and outfield prospect David Paisano, Jon Daniels sent pitchers John Danks, Nick Masset and Jacob Rasner to the Windy City. McCarthy couldn’t break into the White Sox rotation last year, and looks to become a decent #3. He is a young pitcher with promise and not too many innings on his arm, but I think the Rangers might have given up too much in this deal. Danks, the Rangers’ 2003 1st round pick, is a lefty who could become an excellent starting pitcher. And Masset is a power righty with very good stuff, a bullpen setup candidate. This continues the trend of Chicago trading away its pitchers in order to amass an array of young arms. Ken Williams knows that a quantity of young arms will produce at least one pleasant surprise, and that surprise figures to slot into the #5 spot in Chicago’s rotation this year.

Pitcher Jeff Suppan is likely headed to Milwaukee after being offered a four-year deal valued at around $40 million. This throws a monkey wrench in many teams’ rotation plans, and may spark a flurry of moves as teams grow desperate to plug holes in their starting five. Once Zito goes, you’ll see what I mean.

Marcus Giles was signed as a free agent by the Padres this week. Finally the brothers Giles are playing together. It was very interesting how San Diego confidently traded away young second baseman Josh Barfield to Cleveland several weeks ago without a replacement in place. Either Kevin Towers is a prophet and knew Giles would be available and eager to sign with the Pads, or he’s got some guts. Giles has been injured a lot in recent years, but the 28-year old can still hit and could be a stellar pickup for San Diego. Look for him to rebound significantly from his .262/.341/.387 in 2006. I’ve always liked Giles combination of speed and power, though his HR numbers will likely shrivel a bit in San Diego.

The Tigers extended 24-year old pitcher Jeremy Bonderman for four years and $38 million, solidifying their staff for the next few years. Good move by them, as Bonderman can still realize more potential. He is the type of pitcher who can flourish on a winning team, where he is not expected to be the #1 (at least for now).

Jason Marquis signed a three-year deal with the Cubs, filling out a 2007 rotation that will feature three new faces. He could do quite well in Chicago, so keep an eye out.

The Pirates are still trying to pry Adam LaRoche away from the Braves, but injury concerns over Gonzalez’s arm have stalled the talks. Atlanta wants another young player, but Pittsburgh is not willing to throw in pitcher Paul Maholm.

Royals GM Dayton Moore, not satisfied with all the pitchers on his squad, has signed another bunch of arms in David Riske, Brandon Duckworth and Zach Day. Moore is doing a heck of a job building Kansas City’s staff on a meager budget, and the Royals could surprise some people this season with a decent record.

The Phillies have signed outfielder Jayson Werth to a one-year deal. Werth can play all three outfield positions and provides some good depth for Philadelphia. Should he get on a roll, he could even claim a starting spot in 2007.

The cash-strapped Twins have re-signed Rondell White to be their DH. Though he had a terrible 2006, White’s career numbers suggest that he can still be decent. Unless Minnesota’s offense gets a huge boost this year, however, White is just a fringe fantasy player.

Giants add three

The San Francisco Giants held a press conference showcasing their three newest players: outfielder Dave Roberts, second baseman Rich Aurilia and catcher Bengie Molina. This mostly just filling holes, though Molina could be worth watching as a fantasy catcher.

As you have all heard, the Red Sox have inked Daisuke Matsuzaka to a six-year deal. The Red Sox jerseys are already flying off the shelves in Japan, so he’ll have quite a billing to live up to.

The Tampa Bay Rays are close to signing their own Japanese player, Akinori Iwamura. Iwamura can play several positions, and will be a valuable signing for the Rays.

The Washington Nationals are expected to trade Jose Vidro to the Mariners for a couple of young prospects to serve as their DH. Felipe Lopez is expected to shift to second base for the Nationals next season. Instantly he becomes an above-average hitter at the position, and if he can recapture some of the magic of 2005, he might be worth it.

Felix Pie will be given a chance to win the Cubs’ opening day centerfielder job in spring.

Astros trade for Jason Jennings

The Houston Astros, unable to re-sign Andy Pettite and uncertain about the Rocket’s readiness for 2007, gave in to desperation, trading away young arms Taylor Buchholz and Jason Hirsch along with outfielder Willy Taveras for pitchers Jason Jennings and Miguel Ascencio. Both Buchholz and Hirsch showed some serious potential, and the Colorado Rockies were more than happy to get their hands on them. Jennings will finally escape Coors Stadium, but Minute Maid Park is not that much friendlier to pitchers. He has pitched well under less than ideal conditions for years, so expect more of the same this year, even without any run support. He won’t improve on his wins unless the Astros find themselves some offensive help. They are pretty deep in the hole now, needing both offense and pitching, and having little to offer in return for either.

The Rockies consider both pitchers good enough to play in the majors, and they will get a shot in Spring Training to make the staff. Taveras has always been a fringe fantasy player, a good source of stolen bases, but little else. His transition to Colorado should bump his value slightly, though not very much. His speed should be useful in covering the expanses of Coors Field.

Gagne goes to the Rangers

The Texas Rangers were willing to extend $6 million of guaranteed money to Eric Gagne, and he took it. The lack of a team willing to go beyond this number reflects Gagne’s inability to pitch much at all the past two seasons. Don’t draft him as more than your 3rd or 4th closer on your fantasy team, just in case. The Rangers also agreed to a one-year deal with Kenny Lofton worth about $6 million as well. Lofton is a good stopgap player, but he’s only getting older.

The Seattle Mariners finally signed a free agent starting pitcher, Miguel Batista, to a three-year, $24 million deal. Seattle tried and failed with several other free-agent pitchers this off-season. Batista is a decent veteran arm, and has been able to log lots of innings in recent years. Batista has some flexibility, as he can also come out of the bullpen, so he will continue to be valuable, even late into his contract. He will join Felix Hernandez and the newly acquired Horacio Ramirez in the Mariner rotation in 2007.

The Orioles are spending liberally this off-season, but on second-tier talent for the most part.. They signed outfielder Jay Payton to a two-year, $9.5 million deal this week. Payton has had a couple of pretty good years with the Oakland A’s, and has gotten on hot streaks at times. He can hit for decent average, but his OBP and power numbers don’t really warrant him as a great fantasy outfielder. Payton will hit in the main part of the Orioles’ order, though, so his production should be pretty good in 2007. Look at him as a possible 3rd or 4th outfielder on your squad.

The Yankees signed Cuban player Juan Miranda to a four-year deal. He can play first base or outfield, and can hit fairly well. The Yankees might try to fill their first base hole with this 23-year old youngster, if he can field a little.

The Detroit Tigers added some veteran depth to their bullpen, signing Jose Mesa for one year and $2.5 million. Mesa’s 40 years old, so it’s almost like signing two veterans, but he has closing experience and could help stabilize a young bullpen of fireballers.

Darren Oliver (is he still around?) signed a one-year contract with the Angels this week. I didn’t even realize he pitched in 2006 at all. That should give you an idea of his fantasy value.

The deadline for signing Daisuke Matsuzaka is approaching quickly, and Scott Boras has suggested that this pitcher deserves a $100 million contract. Even Boston won’t do that for an inexperienced pitcher, especially one that they’ve already committed $51 million to. We should know in the next 12-24 hours what’s going to happen with Matsuzaka, a “national treasure” of Japan.

Marquis goes to the Cubs

Jason Marquis has not been a marquee pitcher, but he’s won a good amount of games playing in St. Louis, and he’s just 26 years old. The Chicago Cubs decided to sign him to a three-year deal yesterday, continuing their off-season shopping spree. Lou Pinella is going to be managing a completely different ballclub in 2007.

Pitchers are going fast, and several teams are still in dire need of starters, including the Astros and Cardinals. Look for them to get busy trading or signing Jeff Suppan and/or Jeff Weaver soon.

Pettite signs with the Yankees

Andy Pettite signed a one-year deal for $16 million with the New York Yankees. They outbid the Astros by $2 million, and so will boast a very deep and strong rotation once again. This is a great move by Cashman to insure his rotation against injuries. Look for Pettite to wind up his career in New York with 12-16 wins this year. The Astros now have to really be aggressive to obtain starting pitching, as their cupboard is pretty bare.

Barry Bonds signed a similar contract two days ago to try to break the home run record in San Francisco. Bonds needs 22 more this season to reach Hank Aaron; let’s hope and pray he doesn’t get there. This signing means that Manny Ramirez is not going to the Bay. With the tampering allegations against the Red Sox, Ned Colletti is not likely to do a deal for Ramirez either, leaving San Diego and Seattle as his only possible suitors. And they are not desperate to do that deal.