Weaver finally signs with the M’s

Free agent pitcher Jeff Weaver cashed in on his late 2006 and postseason performances, signing a one-year deal with the Seattle Mariners for 2007. This was almost a must sign for the Mariners, who suffered the loss of starters Gil Meche and Joel Pineiro this off-season, and badly needed to fill out their rotation for the coming year.

Weaver will be expected to provide a steadying influence in a rotation which expects to feature Felix Hernandez, Jarrod Washburn, Horacio Ramirez and Miguel Batista. Look for Weaver to be an average 3rd or 4th starter, posting a mid-4’s ERA and about 12 wins.

Who’s on first? (2007 AL Infield Edition)

There are quite a few players who stand to get new starting jobs this coming season. In my experience, fantasy leagues are not won by drafting the players who are knowns. It’s the breakout seasons, the career years that help put you on top. Less familiar youngsters can make all the difference if you get them early (Francisco Liriano, Justin Verlander and Jonathan Papelbon, anyone?). However, keep in mind that greater reward also means greater risk. Don’t draft these guys in the first few rounds and expect them to lead your team to victory. These guys can be solid value picks in the middle and late rounds.

Let’s start with infielders, shall we?

Jason Bartlett, SS, Minnesota Twins. Bartlett is a rarity in Minnesota, a shortstop who can hit. Not much power here, but he wore down in 2006. Expect him to do better this year. Just 27, he will be a fixture in the Twins lineup along with Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau.
Rating for 2007: Solid shortstop pick. Take him in your middle to lower rounds.
Keeper rating: Very decent. He is very consistent.

Ryan Shealy, 1B, Kansas City Royals. Once considered the successor to Todd Helton in Colorado, Shealy has now taken over first base for the Royals. The 28-year old hit .319/.408/.591 in the minors, but has yet to adjust to major league pitching.
Rating for 2007: Has a pretty high ceiling, but his run production will suffer somewhat in the Royals lineup.
Keeper rating: He’s sure to put up power numbers, but he may move to DH once Mike Sweeney retires.

Andy Marte, 3B, Cleveland Indians. It’s finally time for this much-heralded prospect to show us what he can do. Just 23 years old, Marte is expected to man the hot corner. He did little last season (.226/.287/.421) to show that he’s ready, but he’s still learning. I expect him to hit just north of .250 and hit 25+ HR this year if he doesn’t lose his starting job to Casey Blake.
Rating for 2007: Will struggle at times, but give average production.
Keeper rating: Still high. He’s developing power and plate discipline, so if he ever gets it, he’ll be very good.

Mike Napoli, C, Anaheim Angels. Okay, he’s not really a new guy, but check this out: after starting out .286/.412/.579 last season with 11 HR in the first half, the 25-year old catcher got injured and never really got back in the second half. It won’t happen again. This guy could be a very good pick at catcher.
Rating for 2007: Take him after Mauer, McCann, Martinez and Willingham. Posada’s old.
Keeper rating: Very good potential, but I wouldn’t rely on him as your future until he proves it this year.

Akinori Iwamura, 3B, Tampa Bay. The Rays were quick to jump on this 27-year old Japanese export, posting $5 million for him and signing him to a multi-year deal. Iwamura is a young, athletic player with great fundamentals who put up some pretty gaudy numbers in Japan ball. He did hit 44 HR there in 2004, but he has been around 30+ the last two seasons. He is known as something of a free swinger, which could hurt him in the majors. He could play 3B or CF, giving him some nice position eligibility.
Rating for 2007: Would make a good backup 3B. His numbers suggest he could be somewhere around .275 with possibly 20 HR. Rays weak lineup decreases his value.
Keeper Rating: Limited potential makes him a marginal choice.

Ben Zobrist, SS, Tampa Bay. The 25-year old Zobrist was a 6th round pick in 2004, and came over from Houston in the trade for Aubrey Huff last season. In case you missed it, he came up for 52 games last season, hitting a miserable .224/.260/.311 in 183 AB. In three years in the minors however, Zobrist put up a line of .324/.434/.453 and had pretty decent doubles power. In short, he is a future on-base machine and big time runs guy in the making.
Rating for 2007: Might be worth a spot on your bench if you really need a SS, but should be available as a FA.
Keeper Rating: A decent pick, but you’d have to wait a year or two. Stephen Drew is a much better bet.

Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox. Surprise, surprise- the Red Sox are planning to start a rookie? The 23-year old Pedroia is something of an unknown, but the organization has a lot of faith in him. This small player is often compared to David Eckstein. He plays hard and is a pesky hitter. He hits Triple-A pitching great, but struggled in a limited stint last year with the big club.
Rating for 2007: Will hit for contact, but probably won’t steal a ton of bases in the Red Sox system. Good lineup means he’ll be hitting #9. Probably not worth drafting, but could be a good FA fill-in in case of injury.
Keeper rating: Limited upside makes him trade bait in the future when a top 2B free agent comes up.

Outfielders coming soon!

Yankees landing Clemens?

The biggest free agent name still available is Roger Clemens. One news source has disclosed that the Yankees have already asked Robinson Cano to give up his number 22 jersey in the event that the Rocket is signed for 2007. Number 21 is not available, as it has not been issued to a Yankee since Paul O’Neill retired in 2001. Dumping Randy Johnson’s contract and picking up Clemens seems like a logical move. If this happens, watch out for the Yankees this year. They’ll be getting extra help at just the time they will need it.

This is the inevitable result of the arms race in the AL East, where Boston has stockpiled a rotation of young guns to complement Curt Schilling and Tim Wakefield. This could be a very exciting year if Clemens signs on with the Yanks. 19 games with some of the best starting pitchers in baseball? Where do I sign up?

In other news, the A’s traded starting pitcher Kirk Saarloos to Cincinnati for minor-league reliever David Shafer. Saarloos will slide right in the back of the Cincinnati rotation, and should do a decent job for them. The 25-year old Shafer has been pitching at the AA level, with great success, and looks to slot in as a setup man/closer behind Oakland’s Huston Street in the future.

The Blue Jays added some pitching depth by signing Tomo Okha to a one-year deal. He is an innings-eater, but that’s about it.

Cliff Floyd is said to be signing with the Cubs for one year with a player option. He will provide some needed pop in the outfield as a fourth outfielder. Floyd tends to be a really streaky hitter, so he could catch fire and do well for a while. Manager Lou Pinella is considering putting newly-signed Alfonso Soriano in center field to displace the departed Juan Pierre, if Felix Pie doesn’t claim the spot.

The Colorado Rockies are gambling on a lot of pitchers with previous success, the latest being Dan Kolb, formerly of the Brewers. Kolb’s arm seems to have given out, as his strikeout numbers will tell you. His fastball/slider combo is no longer effective, but he could be a decent middle bullpen option for a team like Colorado.

Nixon is an Indian

Trot Nixon just signed a 1-year, $3 million deal with Cleveland. This is a good value signing, as Nixon is a veteran who will play hard every day, can get on base and play a little defense. Pretty much a left-handed pull hitter, Trot can’t hit for much power any more, but he can still make contact, and has a good walk rate. He still hits righties pretty well, with a .288/.385/.420 split last year. He will challenge Casey Blake for playing time in right field, and (ironically) provide insurance against injury in the outfield.

The Atlanta Braves signed Craig Wilson to a one-year pact yesterday. Wilson is a right-handed power bat who historically has hit better against lefties (.296/.395/.543), making him a platoon/pinch-hit candidate. He can play either corner outfield spot or first base adequately, making him something of a super sub. Not too much fantasy value here, but remember, the Braves just traded away Adam LaRoche, their starting first baseman. Power-hitting prospect Scott Thorman appears to be ready to take over, but Wilson will provide a good insurance policy just in case he doesn’t.

Mike Gonzalez traded to the Braves

So the rumors proved to be true after all. The Pittsburgh Pirates traded reliever Mike Gonzalez and prospect Brent Lillibridge to the Atlanta Braves yesterday in return for first baseman Adam LaRoche and outfielder Jamie Romak. The Pirates had been dangling Gonzalez all off-season, hoping to cash in on their star lefty closer. However, shoulder concerns diminished Gonzalez’ value, and the Braves were the last interested suitor.

Gonzalez joins a newly rebuilt bullpen in Atlanta, and looks to slot in as a setup man/backup closer to veteran Bob Wickman. Rafael Soriano is also in the mix there, so the Braves are covered in case Gonzalez’ shoulder does blow out. What a right/left combo! Lillibridge is also a good shortstop prospect, and may be ready by the time Edgar Renteria’s contract is up.

Knowing John Schuerholz, Adam LaRoche probably had a very good year for him least season. Remember, LaRoche surprised everyone last season by hitting 32 long balls. Don’t expect him to be the power hitter the Pirates might think he is. He’s more of a .280 hitter worth about 20 HR and maybe 80 RBI on the Pirates. Romak is a legitimate power prospect, which the Pirates’ system is otherwise devoid of, so that’s a nice throw-in right there. But they had to give up one of their better shortstop prospects to get him.

Mark Mulder signs with Cards

Veteran lefty Mark Mulder signed a 2-year deal worth $13 million today to continue playing for the Cardinals in 2007. The incentive-laden contract could vest a third option year and be worth as much as $45 million if Mulder can recover his All-Star form.

The Cardinals deperately need to fill out their starting rotation if they want to stay competitive after losing pitchers Jeff Suppan, Jeff Weaver and Jason Marquis to free agency this year.

In other news, newly-elected Hall of Famer Cal Ripken Jr. indicated that he would be interested in buying the Baltimore Orioles, should Peter Angelos decide to sell. That scenario would be the best possible thing for the Oriole franchise, which has struggled to compete in the AL East with the likes of the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays. But that makes too much sense for it to actually happen, right?

Down to the dregs

Quality free agent pitchers have literally flown off the shelves this off-season. Perhaps the only recognizable name left is Jeff Weaver, after another round of signings by teams. This group is characterized by past successes but recent ineffectiveness, usually due to injury.

The Boston Red Sox have what they think might turn out to be closer material in former Seattle Mariner Joel Pineiro. They signed the right hander to a 1-year, $4 million pact. Pineiro’s stuff has been graded well, but after injuring his elbow in 2004, he’s had very little success in the big leagues. Word is he’s healthy again, so keep an eye out; he may be a very decent closer option, especially with those new bats in the lineup (Lugo and Drew).

The Seattle Mariners signed reliever Chris Reitsma to a 1-year, $2 million deal with a 2008 option to become their setup man, replacing Rafael Soriano. Reitsma is coming off a pretty bad injury, but if he can regain his old form, he’ll fill in nicely. If successful, he will likely be the backup closer option to J.J. Putz, should he falter. But this guy is too big a risk to draft for your fantasy team, unless you go like 40 rounds.

The poor Minnesota Twins. Literally poor. They haven’t been able to sign any big-name free agent pitchers this off-season. They’re saving their dough to have a shot at re-signing ace Johan Santana when he comes up for free agency after 2008. Having lost the reliable Brad Radke to retirement and uber-prospect Francisco Liriano for 2007, they’ve signed Sidney Ponson to compete for a spot on their 40-man roster. Should he make the cut, he’ll earn $1 million, with incentives sweetening the pot to $3 million should he miraculously pitch well. With guys like Carlos Silva, Boof Bonser, Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza and Scott Baker around, this guy will be lucky to end up as a fifth starter on the Twins, and is not worth considering.

Jeff Weaver’s stock went up in last year’s playoffs, and word is the Mets are interested. Omar Minaya has yet make much noise this off-season, and signing Weaver could be a small bang.

Big Unit traded

What’s going on? The Yankees trading an established veteran for prospects? What parallel universe am I in? That’s exactly what’s happening, as the Arizona Diamondbacks have agreed in principle on a deal for Randy Johnson. In exchange for the towering lefty plus $2 million of his $16 million salary, the Diamondbacks will send veteran reliever Luis Vizcaino and prospects Ross Ohlendorf (RHP), Steven Jackson (RHP) and Alberto Gonzalez (SS). Ohlendorf is considered one of Arizona’s better prospects, but none of these prospects is considered among the Diamondback’s top youngsters. Despite his dominating track record, injuries slowed Johnson and he was considered to be the Yankees’ 4th or 5th starter for 2007. His departure leaves the Yankees leaning on an oft-injured group, plus one unproven Japanese starter: Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettite, Mike Mussina, Kei Igawa and Carl Pavano. Still, this is younger and probably better than last year. Cashman is building a crop of young arms which can rise up in a year or two, but the situation looks pretty precarious with this front 5. Johnson should provide help to the Diamondback’s rotation, plus bring in the fans again. Shrewd move on Arizona’s side.

Keith Foulke has finally signed a contract, a 1-year deal worth $5 million with the Cleveland Indians. The contract also includes $2 million in incentives. Wow. That’s a lot more than I thought he was capable of getting. Mark Shapiro is gambling that Foulke and veteran Joe Borowski can shore up the bullpen and close out games for the Indians. Foulke has shown few signs of returning to his dominating self, save one 11-inning scoreless stretch late last year. Shapiro has said, however, that Foulke appears to be fully healthy again.

Mark Loretta to sign with the Astros

Second baseman Mark Loretta agreed to a preliminary deal worth $2.5 million with the Houston Astros yesterday. Incentives could push the deal up to a reported $3.5 million. While the venerable Craig Biggio has been a fixture at second base for Houston, he is getting up there in years and his production has suffered some. The Astros commented that Loretta “will see time all over the infield”, suggesting that if Biggio continues to be productive, Loretta may assume a super-utility type role.

Mark Loretta is still a very tough out, but his production won’t get much better than last season at the very best. His value is a lot of intangible “baseballness”: experience, smarts, steadiness, a fighter at the plate. As his range decreases, he becomes less valuable at second base and more valuable at the corners, which may earn him multiple position eligibility. Unfortunately, his numbers aren’t all that good for even a backup fantasy 1B/3B. Don’t expect him to get a full season’s worth of at bats unless someone goes down with an injury.