2007 Top 10 Starters

Starting pitching is a quagmire, and you should definitely play it conservative with most pitchers. But draft at least two quality arms before the middle rounds, or you’ll be cobbling together a rotation based on who pitched well that week. There are a lot of good young starters to pick, so do your due diligence.

Top 10 starters
1. Johan Santana, MIN. As close as you can get to a sure thing these days.
2. Chris Carpenter, STL. Carpenter always posts good numbers, and the Cardinals usually win a lot.
3. Roy Oswalt, HOU. Dominates all the categories except strikeouts.
4. Roy Halladay, TOR. Has done it in the toughest division in baseball for years.
5. Jake Peavy, SD. Only the ERA and W totals were atypical last year. He’ll bounce back.
6. Brandon Webb, ARI. This young guy anchors the staff already.
7. Carlos Zambrano, CHC. Dominated with a great 2006, has to show more consistency.
8. Scott Kazmir, TB. Injury dampened his numbers a little bit, but he is this good.
9. Ben Sheets, MIL. When he plays, he’s so good.
10. C.C. Sabathia, CLE. This guy is primed for a breakout season.

One to watch
Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS. After facing him, David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez will tell you he’s the real deal.

2007 Top 10 Closers

Saves is one of those tricky categories. There aren’t many really trustworthy closers, as a pitcher may look really good one year, then melt down the next (hello, Derrick Turnbow). The keys here are youth, health and stability. It’s good if you can get someone with a lot of K’s in addition to saves.

Top 10 Closers
1. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA. No one’s figured him out yet.
2. Joe Nathan, MIN. Consistency year after year, and awesome peripherals to go along with that.
3. Billy Wagner, NYM. Closes for a great team, has great stuff.
4. B.J. Ryan, TOR. Has looked very good, even against the AL East.
5. Huston Street, OAK. Never mind the minor injuries last year, this kid can close.
6. Mariano Rivera, NYY. Continues to defy age and tough opposition.
7. J.J. Putz, SEA. Seems to have a firm grip on this spot, with a phenomenal 2006.
8. Brad Lidge, HOU. Yeah, he struggled a lot and nobody knows why. But his peripherals say he can still get it done.
9. Chris Ray, BAL. Quietly has become a steady closer in the tough AL East.
10. Bobby Jenks, CHW. Jenks started off slow, but still had a decent season (4.00 ERA, 41 SV, 80 K in 69.2 IP). Closes for a contender, which helps.

One to watch
Joel Zumaya, DET. This guy was nearly unhittable in a setup role last year, and Todd Jones is ripe to give up his seat.

2007 Top 10 Outfielders

I guess it would be fair of me to list 30 outfielders here, but it’s really hard to rank past the top 10. You should try to draft one of these guys if you want to have a stable, productive outfield. That being said, outfield depth is more important than any one player. Don’t neglect to draft balanced, productive outfielders to complement each other.

Top 10 outfielders
1. Carl Crawford, TB. Name any other player who will hit 20 HR AND steal 50 bases for you.
2. Vladimir Guerrero, LAA. Helps you significantly in all five categories.
3. Alfonso Soriano, CHC. I’m sort of a Soriano hater, but one great season does not a #1 rank make. Show it to me again and I’ll put you up higher.
4. Lance Berkman, HOU. Eligibility at first and OF makes him a great pick.
5. Manny Ramirez, BOS. Guaranteed numbers, no matter how much people hate his baggage.
6. Carlos Beltran, NYM. Possesses greater potential than others on this list, yet hasn’t managed to dominate every year.
7. Grady Sizemore, CLE. He’ll be a 30 HR, 20 SB guy this year, and he’s getting better.
8. Vernon Wells, TOR. A truly gifted hitter, Wells is good for 35 HR and 15 SB.
9. Matt Holliday, COL. In addition to the 34 HR, he had 119 R and 114 RBI.
10. Jason Bay, PIT. Only the uniform he wears prevents him from being higher on this list.

One to watch
Chris B. Young, ARI. Think Grady Sizemore with more power and a lower batting average. One of Arizona’s best prospects, Young will be handed the starting centerfielder’s job from day 1.

2007 Top 10 First basemen

First base is a key position for your fantasy offense. There is a lot of power and production available here, so don’t hesitate to dump a player to pick up a hot one. And don’t draft these too high, with a couple of exceptions.

Top 10 First basemen
1. Albert Pujols, STL. He’s still the king of swing.
2. David Ortiz, BOS. Missed MVP honors last year, but he’s come to camp slimmed down and ripped in order to finish the job.
3. Ryan Howard, PHI. Hard not to like this young bat. If he cuts down on the strikeouts, he could move up this list next year.
4. Lance Berkman, HOU. Serious production at 45 HR and 136 RBI last season.
5. Justin Morneau, MIN. Last year’s AL MVP can really handle the stick, and 130 RBI is pretty good in the Twins’ lineup.
6. Derrek Lee, CHC. A rare combination of power and speed at first base. If fully healthy, he deserves to be higher on this list.
7. Gary Sheffield, DET. Sheffield is going to play very little defense in Detroit, which can only mean good things at the plate.
8. Carlos Delgado, NYM. One of the key cogs in the Mets offense, Delgado’s still got it.
9. Mark Teixeira, TEX. His fall from grace in the first half of 2006 was followed by a good second half (.291 AVG, 24 HR, 61 RBI, .998 OPS).
10. Paul Konerko, CHW. Consistently one of the better first basemen out there, and he plays on a very good team.

One to watch
Prince Fielder, MIL. The Brewers have a very young and talented infield. Fielder is ready to break some records in Milwaukee.

Honorable mention
Conor Jackson, ARI. His minor league numbers were just astounding, and now Jackson has the job full-time.

2007 Top 10 Third basemen

Again, a deep, talented position in this year’s draft.

Top 10 Third basemen
1. Alex Rodriguez, NYY. Despite the knocks on him, no one can match his production here year in and year out.
2. Miguel Cabrera, FLA. This youngster seems to be able to do what he wants with the ball at will.
3. David Wright, NYM. Great balance of power, speed and production.
4. Garrett Atkins, COL. Hit 29 HR with 117 R and 120 RBI last year. Playing at Coors definitely helps.
5. Aramis Ramirez, CHC. Big time production to match that big contract. And the Cubbies got him some help this year.
6. Scott Rolen, STL. Injuries are finally done with, and his power numbers will bounce back.
7. Ryan Zimmerman, WAS. .287 AVG with 20 HR and 11 SB. I love this young player, and he’s only going to improve.
8. Chipper Jones, ATL. Still hitting for power and average, even in 2007.
9. Bill Hall, MIL. An enigmatic player. I can’t figure out how he hit 35 HR.
10. Troy Glaus, TOR. 38 HR. ‘Nuff said.

One to watch
Alex Gordon, KC. Apologies to Andy Marte, but Gordon has given every indication that he’ll be very good soon. It’s just a matter of how soon.

2007 Top 10 Shortstops

This year’s shortstops are very, very good. Young studs are joining the ranks of experienced veterans, so you have no excuse for a Royce Clayton or an Alex Gonzalez on your roster.

Top 10 Shortstops
1. Jose Reyes, NYM. He’s been able to stay healthy and fulfill his potential. Still young and runs full speed.
2. Jimmy Rollins, PHI. The most well-rounded shortstop, but probably won’t match last year’s 25 HR.
3. Hanley Ramirez, FLA. This is a very talented young stud who’s going to improve his power numbers.
4. Stephen Drew, ARI. Yes, I think he’s this good already. .316/.357/.517 in 209 AB last year.
5. Derek Jeter, NYY. Jeter had one of his best seasons, but still wasn’t the best shortstop to have.
6. Michael Young, TEX. He’s only a season removed from being the top fantasy SS and set a career high with 103 RBI.
7. Miguel Tejada, BAL. A consistent slugger year after year.
8. Rafael Furcal, LAD. Dodger Stadium allows him to slap the ball to the gaps and use his speed.
9. Troy Glaus, TOR. He’s eligible at SS in my league, and he hit 38 HR last year.
10. Carlos Guillen, DET. A consistently good hitter, and he almost reached 20 HR/20 SB last year.

One to watch
Jason Bartlett, MIN. He’s proven he can hit big-league stuff. Now give him a full year and let him do his thing.

2007 Top 10 Second basemen

In my opinion, this is the shallowest position in this year’s draft. There are a few superlative players, then a muddle of mediocre ones, with some who could bounce back.

Top 10 Second basemen
1. Chase Utley, PHI. Great production from this spot, but don’t overpay. He still can’t outhit many corner IFs and OFs.
2. Chone Figgins, LAA. Had a down year, but he still scored 93 R and had 52 SB.
3. Robinson Cano, NYY. How can you hit that well and not have more run production in that lineup? Almost won the batting title last year.
4. Dan Uggla, FLA. 27 HR from a second baseman is nothing to sneeze at.
5. Rickie Weeks, MIL. Limited by injuries, but still hit 8 HR and stole 19 bases.
6. Brian Roberts, BAL. Good source of SB and seems to be getting savvier on the basepaths. Only a career .749 OPS hitter.
7. Julio Lugo, BOS. Don’t forget he’s eligible here. He is a decent hitter and will leadoff for Boston’s potent offense.
8. Tadahito Iguchi, CHW. Very consistent, and hit .281 with 18 HR and had 11 SB last season. Good lineup.
9. Howie Kendrick, LAA. Some say he could challenge for a batting title in a few years.
10. Jeff Kent, LAD. Should bounce back from a weak season and injuries.

One to watch
Dustin Pedroia, BOS. Doesn’t get much attention, but has reported in great shape and has never hit below .300 in the minors.

2007 Top 10 Catchers

Okay, it’s time for the obligatory fantasy top 10 picks. We’ll start with backstops, since that is a position people worry a lot about and struggle to fill. There’s really no need to worry this season, as it’s a relatively strong class. A classic fantasy mistake is to take your catcher too early, because you’re worried about filling it with someone decent. It’s much better not to waste your pick, but get the best player available. You can fill out positions in the later rounds, or engineer a trade if you’re not satisfied with that.

Top 10 Catchers
1. Joe Mauer, MIN. Young superstar shines at the plate (.347 AVG) and will add to his 13 HR from 2006.
2. Brian McCann, ATL. Maybe won’t duplicate last year’s 24 HR, .333 AVG and 93 RBI, but he’s for real.
3. Victor Martinez, CLE. Maybe one of the most overrated players out there, but still an excellent fantasy catcher.
4. Kenji Johjima, SEA. Has some decent power and is steady.
5. Mike Piazza, OAK. Piazza will not be playing catcher much, and should hold up well over the season.
6. Michael Barrett, CHC. Has almost matched VMart’s .853 OPS the last three years, but isn’t well known.
7. Russell Martin, LAD. 26 2B, 10 HR and 10 SB with a .282 AVG isn’t bad, and Martin is young and steady and now hitting 6th.
8. Ramon Hernandez, BAL. Good power, but he probably won’t repeat 91 RBI this year.
9. Jorge Posada, NYY. Age is limiting his playing time and effectiveness, but he still hits in a great lineup.
10. Ivan Rodriguez, DET. The power has been drained from his swing, but he still hits well and in a good lineup.

One to watch
Mike Napoli, LAA. Hit .286/.412/.579 before the ASB last year before wearing down with nagging injuries.

Sleepers: 2007 NL Pitchers

And now, for our final installment:

John Patterson, Washington Nationals. Patterson has been named the opening day starter, and with good reason. Even though he missed almost all of 2006, he can really bring it when he’s healthy. He’s not on many people’s radars.
2007 rating: Only his team keeps him from being a #1.
Keeper rating: Very good potential, projects as a #2 fantasy starter.

Ben Sheets, Milwaukee Brewers. Everybody knows him, yet they always seem to forget him on draft day. Don’t make that mistake. Good source of strikeouts, has a phenomenal WHIP every season. He just needs to stay healthy for a whole year. He was a late 6th rounder in my league.
2007 rating: Could be a #1 if healthy.
Keeper rating: Still worth getting.

Randy Johnson, Arizona Diamondbacks. The lanky lefty has had back surgery and says he’s ready to come back. The Diamondbacks are a cash-strapped club, and GM Josh Byrnes wouldn’t sign him to a two-year deal unless he thought he really could pitch well again. The Big Unit didn’t go until the late 8th round in my fantasy league, and he could be a bargain there.
2007 rating: A solid #3 for your rotation.
Keeper rating: Only if you plan on keeping him for two seasons.

Brett Myers, Philadelphia Phillies. Despite what I may think of this guy personally (wife-beater), he’s shown himself to be a very good pitcher. Word is he’s shown up to Spring Training in very good shape, and looks ready to take his game to the next level.
2007 rating: A solid #2 or #3.
Keeper rating: He should be good for a while.

Rich Hill, Chicago Cubs. Most of you know him already, but this guy was awesome after the ASB: 6-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, fanning 79 in 80.0 innings of work. Was practically unhittable in September.
2007 rating: Probably a #3, if not a #2.
Keeper rating: Oh yeah.

Jason Jennings, Houston Astros. Never mind the 9-13 record, this guy had an ERA of 3.78 and a WHIP of 1.37, while pitching half his games in Colorado. The 2006 splits don’t bear it out, but based on previous years he should benefit from his move to Minute Maid. Jennings is a horse, having pitched over 900 innings over the past 5 years.
2007 rating: Should be a solid back of the rotation guy. If only he had some offense behind him.
Keeper rating: Not really, as he’s reaching the end of his prime.

John Maine, New York Mets. This youngster was pretty impressive in a stint last season, going 6-5 with a 3.60 ERA in 90.0 IP. If you take out his first 3 disastrous starts before the ASB, he was 6-2 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. With plenty of firepower backing him up and Billy Wagner closing out games, he’ll get a good number of Ws this year. He wasn’t even drafted in my league.
2007 rating: Worth keeping your eye on him. Maybe a good late round pick.
Keeper rating: Probably ranks as a low 2nd or high 3rd tier guy.

Anthony Reyes, St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals were noticably absent in the free agent pitchers extravaganza (apart from Kip Wells), even though they were losing a lot of starters. They think that Reyes and Adam Wainwright are ready. Reyes is very talented, and could benefit from pitching without the pressure of a pennant race.
2007 rating: Not quite there yet, but you should know his name.
Keeper rating: It’s good to pitch with Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen behind you.

Matt Capps, Pittsburgh Pirates. Mike Gonzalez is gone, but Matt Capps is here. He’ll win the closer’s job from Salomon Torres at some point in 2007, and he’ll excel there. Not a great strikeout guy, but he doesn’t walk people.
2007 rating: As soon as Torres starts blowing games, pick him up fast.
Keeper rating: Second-tier.

If at first you don’t succeed…

Well, I drafted my first fantasy baseball team today. I picked first out of 12 teams in a 21 round draft.

Bargain picks
Jake Peavy, SP (5th round, 49th overall). Yeah, you could say he had an off year last year at 11-14, 4.09 ERA. But he also struck out 215 in 202.1 IP and had a WHIP of just 1.23. Don’t count on him to be off again.

Josh Beckett, SP (12th round, 144th overall). A 5.01 ERA is not attractive, but 16 wins is 16 wins. The imposing Red Sox lineup has actually improved this year, along with their bullpen depth (never mind the unresolved closer issue for now). Beckett has already admitted this spring that he should have just trusted Jason Varitek from the beginning. He will be better this year.

Jeremy Sowers, SP (17th round, 193rd overall). Sowers is not a strikeout fiend like many young pitchers, but he’s one of the smartest young arms around. He makes the right adjustments, and quickly. He’ll do better than a lot of pitchers drafted before him.

Michael Barrett, C (18th round, 216th overall). What’s a catcher got to do to get a little respect around here? Barrett posted the 9th best OPS among catchers with at least 100 AB last season, ahead of Ivan Rodriguez, ahead of Kenji Johjima, ahead of Ramon Hernandez. Over the past three years, he’s hit 48 HR his OPS is .843. VMart over that period? 59 HR and an OPS of .853.

Good/average picks
Albert Pujols, 1B (1st round, 1st overall). I struggled over whether to get Johan Santana for a few seconds, then decided that hitters are more of a sure thing than pitchers. Either way, I don’t think you can go wrong.

Chris Carpenter, SP (3rd round, 25th overall). Just barely recovering from my Internet disconnection and near heart attack, I got Carp here, which is around where he should go.

Jimmy Rollins, SS (4th round, 48th overall). Rollins had a great year, and I like him almost as much as Jose Reyes. I was happy to land him here, though I wouldn’t say it was a steal.

Scott Rolen, 3B (6th round, 72nd overall). Rolen will continue to do just fine with Pujols in the lineup. Edmonds is declining, but Chris Duncan is there helping to pick up the slack.

Gary Sheffield, 1B/OF (7th round, 73rd overall). This one made me happy. Even though he’ll be playing 1B and DHing, Shef has OF eligibility in Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball. He’s an awesome 2nd outfielder.

Justin Verlander, SP (8th round, 96th overall). Maybe a little early for this guy, and I am kind of concerned about his heavy workload from last season. But concerned enough to pass up big time potential and 16 wins? Nope.

Chris B. Young, OF (10th round, 120th overall). I believe his production will make him deserve this spot when all is said and done. Arizona is much improved with a deeper starting rotation and some young bats getting into the lineup.

Takashi Saito, RP (13th round, 145th overall). It’d be nice if the Dodgers ever got some offense to give him more opportunities, but Saito’s secondary stats were amazing last year. 2.07 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 107 Ks in 78.1 IP is not easily overlooked.

Salomon Torres, RP (16th round, 192nd overall). I know, I know. A closer for the Pirates, yuck. But hey, it’s the 16th round, and Torres can definitely pitch.

Risky picks
Stephen Drew, SS (9th round, 97th overall). Too early for this guy? Probably. And I already had Jimmy Rollins at this point. The thing is, this guy oozes potential (high numbers of 2B which could become HR eventually), and he’s shown he can hit big league pitching already. I figured I can DH him or trade him for a part later. Still, I probably made the mistake of falling in love with a prospect. Shortstop is unusually deep this year.

Jason Giambi, 1B (11th round, 121st overall). I don’t like Giambi. Who does? But 37 HR in limited playing time is hard to pass up. And a .971 OPS in the 11th round? Are you kidding me?

Joel Zumaya, RP (15th round, 169th overall). I waited too long, and I only landed Takashi Saito and Salomon Torres as my closers. But the next best thing is to draft a young stud pitcher who is behind an aging veteran who could lose his job at some point. That’s almost the definition of Todd Jones right now. And Zumaya’s ERA, WHIP and Ks don’t hurt in the meantime.

Cla Meredith, RP (20th round, 240th overall). Ditto the above, except who knows how many more years Hoffman can keep it going? The guy had one of his best seasons in 2006, at the age of 39. Still, injury could always strike, so Meredith is just some insurance.

John Patterson, SP (21st round, 241st overall). Had a great 2005, got hurt early in 2006. If he comes back, he’ll be a great sleeper. If not, well, I got him in the 21st round.

Bad picks
Carlos Lee, OF (2nd round, 24th overall). I’m not sure this is a BAD pick, but my Internet connection went out and I had like 15 seconds to make my pick. Not one of my favorite fantasy players for 2007. He’s just been handed a fat contract, and the Houston lineup is not exactly supportive.

Carlos Quentin, OF (14th round, 168th overall). I should stay off Carloses. I don’t think Quentin is a really bad pick, because he’s shown very good power in limited ABs, but I already have enough young Diamondbacks on my squad. There were still other good players available at this point.

Marcus Giles, 2B (19th round, 217th overall). Waiting this long to draft a second baseman was a bad move. Brandon Phillips, Jorge Cantu and Ray Durham were all taken in the 17th round. I’m banking on the fact the Giles is finally semi-healthy and happy to be in San Diego, his hometown, playing with his brother Brian. It’s always been his fantasy.

Those are all my picks. Any predictions on where I’ll finish?