Well, spring has sprung in the MLB, and that means it’s time to draft for fantasy baseball. It’s time for people to spend time reading others’ top 10 lists and sleepers, and fashion their own draft board. And then in the heat of the moment, all is forgotten as you reach for that can’t miss prospect instead of the established veteran. There are many common mistakes made in every draft. Avoiding those is the key to being competitive in your league.
Here are five ground rules to keep in mind:
1. Know how your league scores your team.
This may sound too obvious, but many people forget that in a 5×5 league, batting average counts. So drafting Adam Dunn, while it may net you a good number of HR and RBI, will cost you in the batting average category. Getting a fast basestealer is great, but not if he drags down your run production and power numbers. It’s hard to win if you focus too much on one category. You have to look at overall production.
Rotisserie leagues are different than head to head leagues in that it’s the overall body of work that counts. You can be conservative and let that slugger work out of his slump on your bench. So head to head leagues favor picking up hot players, even if they’re not as established as other players. Craft your draft strategy with the scoring system in mind.
2. Draft the best player, not by need or position.
This rule holds until you get to the late middle rounds. So many people look at the list of catchers and think, I have to get Joe Mauer. They draft him too early, passing up elite players that will not be available later on. Just think about it mathematically. You want to draft the best hitters and basestealers available, because it’s the team total that determines your score.
In one of my leagues, Mauer was taken at the end of the second round, 24th overall. Don’t get me wrong, Mauer is a great-hitting catcher who almost won the batting title last year. His OPS was .936, but he only had 86 R and 84 RBI. Part of the lower production is that the rigors of playing catcher automatically limit a catcher to playing around 140 games at most, while other players will go over 150 games easily. The next five players taken were Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Jason Bay, Roy Oswalt and Vernon Wells. The four hitters’ average OPS was .868 and they averaged 109.5 R plus 89.3 RBI, with 27.3 HR and 28.8 SB. Mauer is young and should improve, but his 13 HR and 8 SB just aren’t worth it at this point. So potentially, you could improve drastically in three categories while taking a slight hit in batting average by drafting one of these other guys instead of Mauer.
I’m not saying you should be blind to position. It’s no use drafting 3 first basemen, so you should probably consider a position filled after you have two quality guys there. If Mauer falls to you, great. In the later rounds, you should fill in your team’s holes, and look for players with position flexibility who can play in case of injury. Getting one spare 1B/OF or 1B/3B is a good idea, as well as a 2B/SS. Skip the backup catcher, unless you can get a top one in the late rounds.
Follow this strategy, and you’ll stockpile good numbers across all categories, so you can afford to have a weak position. If you get two talented shortstops, consider trading one of them to remedy your weaknesses. Remember, if a position is shallow, that means other teams will be struggling there, not only you. Premier talent is much more rare than stopgap fantasy players, meaning while one team will enjoy Joe Mauer, four others will get by with A.J. Pierzynski or David Ross, who aren’t bad options, by the way. And there are always surprise players who break out unexpectedly. Keep your eyes peeled for them.
3. Trust the numbers.
How do you know if a player is going to bounce back, or if they’re going to repeat a breakout year? The safest thing is to look at the career numbers. Jason Varitek is aging, but he’s not a .238 hitter. He has a very good chance to bounce back and have a better year.
On the other hand, don’t draft someone who totally rocked for 100 AB and expect them to keep it up. Small sample size can be very deceptive. Phillies catcher Chris Coste hit .328 in 198 AB last season with a HR every 28.3 AB. But he’s 34 years old, and he also hit .177 at AAA last year. Not gonna happen again, sorry. Anyone can have a hot month or two, even Reds shortstop Alex Gonzalez, a career .246 hitter.
4. Explore things that might affect playing time.
Is your next pick injury prone? Is he involved in a position battle with a young stud prospect? Look at this player’s history. Has he been injured in the preseason? If your guy doesn’t play, he won’t be getting you any stats. Don’t pile up too many of these question marks on your squad, or you could be headed for a disastrous season. Two high-risk, high reward players are okay.
5. Don’t overvalue prospects.
Probably the worst thing you can do is load your team up with players from Baseball America’s top prospects list. There’s a reason they’re called prospects, because they are not stars yet. A majority of these players never reach the potential everyone thinks they have. Even “can’t miss” prospects may take a year or three before reaching their potential. So be careful.
That being said, breakout players, especially pitchers like Jonathan Papelbon and Justin Verlander, can really separate you from the rest of your league. So balance your team with a few high ceiling youngsters to go with your established veterans. And make use of your watch list if our league has one.
Best of luck to you. And don’t pick my guys.
