Separating the real from the fantasy

Fantasy baseball is extremely interesting because you get big performances out of some players you’d never expect. Here’s my guide to the fast starters in 2007, and which are for real.

Catcher
Russ Martin, LAD. Hitting .356/.434/.489 in 45 AB with a home run, 12 RS and 4 stolen bases. Steals come in clusters, when players go against weak-armed catchers (VMart *cough* *cough*). He is not going to stay on pace and steal 50 bases, sorry. But he will be a pretty productive fantasy backstop. He’ll play a lot of games and be consistent.

First Base
Ty Wigginton, TAM. A utility player for most of his career, Wigginton has settled down in Tampa Bay and done a pretty decent job playing all over their infield. His three HRs, 11 RBI and .302/.333./.566 line make him look tempting on the waiver wire, don’t they? He does have some pop, but his career .450 slugging percentage suggests that he’s just been on a hot streak. And Tampa Bay is improving, but they’re not a great offense yet. Those production numbers won’t keep up.

Second Base
Ian Kinsler, TEX. Kinsler has 6 HR so far, but I don’t think he’s going to break the HR record this season (his pace is 88 HR right now). Still, scouts have been saying he’s looking very good this season, and he could be a 20/20 guy. He’s batting .343/.452/.886 now, and hitting between Kenny Lofton and Michael Young can’t hurt his season. As long as you temper your expectations, Kinsler is a great pickup.

Orlando Hudson, ARI. Can you trust his .389/.438/.556 start? I can. Hudson’s been a good-hitting second baseman for years, and now he’s playing with a young, talented group in Arizona.

Third Base
Akinori Iwamura, TAM. This Japanese import is known more for his defense, but he swings a pretty good stick too. So far, no one’s been able to get him out (.385/.529/.564), but they’ll figure him out eventually. His batting eye is impressive, but as pitchers begin to harness their control, it’ll become less useful. Look for him to fall into the .280 range for batting average, with just middling power. He’s got some speed, so that helps make him a decent fantasy third baseman.

Shortstop
Aaron Hill, TOR. Hill has always been able to swing the bat okay, and the lack of a better option means he’ll keep playing, despite his defensive drawbacks. He’s hitting .370/.420/.630 with two dingers in 46 ABs, but he’s not a big power guy. Hitting second in the Blue Jay order should help his production numbers.

Juan Uribe, CWS. A guy in one of my leagues dumped Carlos Guillen for Juan Uribe this week. Don’t do it, my friends. Sure, he’s hitting .265/.316/.529 with 3 HRs, but he also hit .235/.257/.441 last year. That’s barely passable for a major league player, and only acceptable to the White Sox because he’s a middle infielder.

Outfield
Chris Duncan, STL. Duncan has hit three home runs already and is hitting a robust .385/.455/.718 in just 39 AB. Last year, he averaged a HR every 12.73 AB over roughly half a season. He’s a little streaky, but the power is real.

Eric Byrnes, ARI. Byrnes has a .288/.328/.525 line, and has hit 3 HR and stolen 5 bags already. But that doesn’t make him a fantasy stud. His career .262/.322/.451 line and history of streaky hitting suggest that he’ll break your heart in the near future.

Josh Hamilton, CIN. Hamilton has gotten off to a great start, hitting .278/.409/.833 with 3 HR. All the talent is there, as he was a former number 1 overall draft pick in 1999. He just ran into a few big speed bumps along the way. It looks like he will develop to be a very good player, though not necessarily this year.

Starting Pitcher
Josh Beckett, BOS. He’s 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA, and he’s walking fewer people than ever. I’ve been crowing it all off-season. Beckett is back. Believe it.

Rich Hill, CHC. Some people expected the Cubs to have a starter with a 2-0 with an 0.64 ERA this early, but they expected his name to be Mark Prior. Hill is continuing his dominance from the end of last season, and yes, he’s for real.

Tim Hudson, ATL. Hudson worked very hard this off-season, and it shows. His 2-0 record and 0.86 ERA are even more impressive considering three consecutive 7 inning starts.

Kip Wells, STL. Wells is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA over three starts, and has struck out 18 in 20 innings. He’ll definitely beat his last year’s numbers now that he’s with the Cardinals, but then, last year’s numbers were 2-5 with a 6.50 ERA. I’d pass on this one.

Closer
Takashi Saito, LAD. Told you he’d be good. 5 saves already, 8 Ks in 6.2 innings, and no signs of slowing down. I’m enjoying having him on all four of my fantasy teams.

Al Reyes, TAM. Five perfect innings, four saves. Very tempting. But Reyes is a 37-year old journeyman. I wouldn’t trust him to close a door, let alone a game. Stay away from this one, because he’ll blow up on you at some point in the near future.

Closer DL carousel continues

Eric Gagne is back closing games for the Texas Rangers, but now B.J. Ryan has been placed on the DL by the Toronto Blue Jays for an elbow strain. If Gagne continues to pitch without pain, Akinori Otsuka is probably not worth holding onto. If you need some fill-in saves, grab Jason Frasor until Ryan makes it back.

Sleeper: OF Luke Scott

I really like Luke Scott. This guy doesn’t have much size or big league experience yet, and never received the top prospect treatment, but has done nothing but hit in his time with the Astros. Scott is 29, a little past prospect status, but has performed well in limited playing time. He has fairly good power, as evidenced by his .534 slugging average in 5 minor league seasons. He’s not a bad contact hitter, and has pretty good patience, with a .385 OBP in 294 major league ABs. Last season he hit .299/.400/.541 at AAA Round Rock, and .336/.426/.621 in 214 AB after a callup to the big club. Not too shabby.

I kind of group him with the Cardinals’ Chris Duncan as outfielders who performed unexpectedly well and showed a lot of potential last year. This season he’s been slowed a little by injuries, yet his line still sits at .294/.333/.588 (in only 17 AB). I think he’s a perfect third or fourth fantasy outfielder with some good potential.

Astros install Wheeler as closer

I really didn’t think it would come to this, but Brad Lidge has lost his grip on the closer role for the Houston Astros. Capable setup man Dan Wheeler notched his first save as the Astros closer last night. I would expect that the situation remain this way for a little while, but don’t dump Lidge just yet, because one of two things could easily happen:

1) Lidge could excel in the setup role, and reclaim the closer job, or

2) Lidge could be traded to a team with closer issues.

The Red Sox have been pursuing Lidge for some time, and even though they have Jonathan Papelbon, they would love to add a power arm like Lidge if the price is right. Several other teams would be interested if he became available.

Pitching: Consistency is the Key

Ask a major league scout what makes a top pitching prospect, and you’ll get a wide array of answers. You’ll hear some general terms, like “stuff” and “movement”, and downright mystical terms, like “makeup” and “mental toughness”.

So what is the most important thing to a young pitcher trying to make it? I’d say it’s consistency. Give me an average pitcher who can throw 10 pitches exactly right over a flamethrower who can get it in the zone 5 times out of 10. Pitching with a consistent motion gives you these three C’s:

Control
The fact is that in order to get a pitch to go where you want it to go, you have to be consistent in everything: windup, balance, arm slot, follow through, etc. It doesn’t help to just go out and throw 100 pitches if you don’t work on consistency with each one. Having the picture perfect windup is not as important as doing the same every time, just ask Dontrelle Willis. This is true of any precision motion in sports, from golf to bowling. A quarterback might be able to get away with a pass being off by several inches, but for a pitcher that could be the difference between a ground out and a home run. When pitchers talk about where they went wrong, they always mention that “hanging curve” or that pitch being up “in the zone”. There are many pitching prospects with great stuff who never make it in the big leagues, because they can’t be consistent with their control. On the other hand, there are pitchers with great control, like Greg Maddux, who have been incredibly successful even without overpowering stuff.

Camoflauge
Having a consistent motion and consistent arm speed is critical to disguising your pitch from the batter. Even what you do on the mound before your motion is critical, because you might tip what’s coming. One of the most powerful weapons in a pitcher’s arsenal is the element of surprise. If you can make two pitches which move very differently look the same, you can be successful. Look at Mariano Rivera, who is basically a two-pitch future Hall of Famer. Trevor Hoffman’s changeup has fooled batters for years, even though he throws in the mid 80s. But in order to develop this camoflauge, you’ll need to work on consistency.

Career
Consistency is one of the best ways to avoid injuries and prolong your career. Players get hurt when they overthrow, or get outside of their usual mechanics. Keeping careful balance and the right shoulder and hip rotation will aid in not only fooling the batter, but keeping your joints in good shape.

Summary
For pitchers, the purpose of the minor league system is to learn strategy with tougher hitters, and to develop consistency. This is what makes them “ready” for the big leagues. Pitchers that can not be taught consistency are not going to be top prospects. To be fair, it must be said that “stuff” and velocity are not things that can be taught, so you do have to start out with good raw material. But consistency is the glue that puts it all together for success at the highest level.

“Can’t Miss” = 23%?

Baseball America has posted their top 100 prospects lists from 1990-2007 on their website. That made me wonder, how many of these guys actually made it in the major leagues? If there are 100 prospects on the list, that means roughly the top 3 prospects from each team, though of course it varies year by year. These guys are often considered “can’t miss” prospects, and yet they often do.

The tricky part is, what do you consider “making it”? Is it enough if they have one dominant season? Or should they reach some career numbers to justify that title? I’ll try to classify these guys into some general classes, based on the following criteria:

A = Superstar (Albert Pujols, Johan Santana, Francisco Rodriguez). This type of player develops into a dominant pitcher or hitter for at least two years, with good career numbers for the years he played. Often receives All-Star recognition or other awards.
B = Good big leaguer (Nick Swisher, Barry Zito, Bob Wickman). This type of player develops into a regular, and posts above-average seasons, with possibly one very good year in there.
C = Average big leaguer (Jacque Jones, Ted Lilly, Joe Borowski). This player posts numbers around the league average and is a consistent player, though he probably never receives a huge contract.
D = Reserve (Tony Graffanino, Darren Oliver). This player might be a journeyman who never really sticks with one team or one role. Typically has a fairly short career.
F = Never made it to the majors. They might get a cup of coffee here and there, but won’t stick.
I = Incomplete due to injury or not yet established at the big league level.

If you break down according to these categories, you see this trend from the 2002 propects (five years should be enough to break out, right?):

A 9%; B 14%; C 20%; D 29%; F 25%; I 3%

So even if your prospect is on the top 100 list, there’s only about a 9% chance that you have a superstar on your hands, and only 23% you even have a player who will be well above average. Real GMs and fantasy GMs would do well to keep this in mind when trading away an established player for young talent.

Well, you might argue, top 100 is not very selective. How about the top 10 from each year? Let’s start from 2005 and go back 10 years, to have 100 players (a few are duplicates, of course). The numbers are better, but for 85 unique players during that time:

A 15.3%; B 27.1%; C 24.7%; D 18.8%; F 5.9%; I 8.2%

This can still change, as 7 players have yet to make their mark on the league, but it’s disturbing to know that 1 out of 4 top 10 prospects will turn out to have average baseball careers, and another almost 19% will be career backups, 5th starters or journeymen. About 6% never even play in the bigs. Scary.

Don’t click that trade button just yet!

Did your first day of fantasy baseball not go quite as planned? Bet you didn’t expect Chris Carpenter to get shelled for 5 earned runs in six innings, did you? Carpenter allowed 5 runs or more 8 times in 2006. Hey, it happens. His first start last year against the Phillies wasn’t a shining gem either, though he won that one. Truth be told, this start is not that bad. It was the Mets, who are pretty darn good. If Carp starts giving up 5 to the Nationals, run for cover.

Disappointing first performances should just remind you that baseball is a long 162 game grind. There is lots and lots of baseball ahead, so just hold off on that blockbuster trade for now. On the other hand, if someone offers you Carpenter at a reasonable price, you should jump all over that. I would.