We’re over a month into the baseball season (one month if you discount all the snow and rain we had), and there are plenty of surprises to be had, both good and bad. Home runs were down, and so were ERAs, so be prepared for an uptick in both as warmer weather hits and hitters get locked in on their timing. Let’s take a look at some of the best and worst of these:
Overvalued (Trade these guys)
Josh Beckett, SP. It’s still early, but 6-0 in six starts is no small feat. The Red Sox give him generous run support, but his 2.72 ERA and 1.06 WHIP have ensured those victories. Even more encouraging, he’s only given up one home run this season, unlike last season, when he nearly got whiplash every game.
Ian Kinsler, 2B. Kinsler is bouncing back in a big way, to the tune of .276/.360/.602. He’s hit 9 HR and stolen 5 bases already. He’ll continue to produce runs and snag bags, but I don’t see him going much beyond 20 HR on the season. He’s prime trade bait: trade him for someone who is on the rise.
John Maine, SP. I knew he’d be good, but not this good. The Mets have not missed Pedro Martinez very much, because this youngster has gone 5-0 with a 1.37 ERA. He has yet to allow more than two runs in a single start this year. His numbers will come down to earth some, but he’s very talented and looks like he can win 16+ games this season.
Kelly Johnson, 2B/OF. Not a lot of people knew who Kelly Johnson was before this season, but fantasy buffs know him now. He’s put up an impressive line of .314/.359/.562, hitting 5 HR and scoring 27 runs atop the Braves batting order. He’s a pretty good contact hitter, but won’t slug .500 the rest of the year.
Barry Bonds, OF. Bonds started off red hot, and now stands at .347/.529/.806 with 10 HR, just 11 shy of the all-time HR record. It’s a virutal certainty that he’ll reach the mark this year, the only question is when. Not bad for someone who was a draft day afterthought for most.
Tim Hudson, SP. Hudson worked hard this off-season, and boy does it show. In seven starts he is just 3-1, but has an ERA of 1.70, more than 3 runs lower than his season ERA last year. Even more impressive, he’s gone seven or eight innings in EVERY START this season, with a streak of four consecutive eight inning outings. As long as his arm holds up, he should be a great fantasy pick for this season.
J.J. Hardy, SS. People thought he had some offensive potential, but .339/.396/.606 and 8 HR? In four minor league seasons, he hit .272 and slugged a composite .402, so don’t expect this streak to last long.
Undervalued (Get these guys)
Alfonso Soriano, OF. Soriano was supposed to lead these improved Cubs to a division championship.
Instead he’s hit only 2 HR and has only 2 SB. He’s hitting better now, but his run production has been weak. I don’t see him as having another MVP-type season in 2007. Look for him to be right around 30 HR/30 SB for the year.
Chris Carpenter, SP. Carpenter is the surest thing in the NL, except when he gets hurt. Having gone arthroscopic surgery yesterday, he’s out until August at least. I drafted him on two teams. Ouch.
Carlos Zambrano, SP. Zambrano hasn’t done much yet to merit that top-dollar contract, but he’s showing signs of revival (see his April 28th start against St. Louis). He’s too good for that 5.80 ERA to stick around for long.
Mariano Rivera, CL. 3 saves (2 blown) and an 8.38 ERA? This sounds like a closer for the Royals, not the New York Yankees. Not to worry, Rivera will get into form, he always does. It’s okay to sit him until he shows a little more consistency.
Ichiro Suzuki, OF. Suzuki normally piles up hits at will (.329 lifetime average), but he’s hitting just .260/.330/.385 thus far and has made little impact (2 HR and 2 SB) other than his defense. He’ll pick it up, as he’s usually a little slow in April (.299 lifetime).
Carlos Delgado, 1B. What’s wrong with Delgado? .212/.302/.292? What’s that all about? Don’t do anything drastic like dropping him, but if you can trade for him now, I would. This guy has topped 30 HR each season for the past 10 years.
Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP. The man who just kept going higher and higher on draft boards has proven to be wild and/or hittable at times. His 5.45 ERA is causing a lot of regret around fantasy leagues, but he is among the strikeout leaders and he will get plenty of wins with that Boston offense behind him. Trade for him if you can.
Rafael Furcal, SS. He’s hitting a woeful .226/.301/.269, and when he doesn’t get on base, Furcal isn’t worth a whole lot. He’ll bounce back, sure, but he likely won’t match last year’s great numbers.
Ryan Zimmerman, 3B. Talk about sophomore slumps. Everyone expected this guy to bust out in 2007, including me. His .248/.312/.341 line makes him available, so go grab him now.
