2008 Preview: Baltimore Orioles

I predicted that Tampa Bay would overtake Baltimore this year, but it looks like it’ll have to wait until next year. With a 68-91 record, the O’s are guaranteed 4th place in the competitive AL East.Baltimore set out to spend and restock with veterans this past off-season, what happened?

Offense

Baltimore has scored 732 runs this season, good for 11th of 14 teams in the AL. They were below average in HR and SLG, and their team OPS was .742. The team BA of .271 was good for 6th in the league, but the OBP of .333 needs to improve. Much of this can be attributed to a general power drain on this team; almost everyone hit for less power than their career averages might suggest.

C: Ramon Hernandez (.254/.330/.366 with 8 HR and 57 RBI in 355 AB)
Underperformed his career numbers, but at age 31 still has a lot of baseball left to play. They have a couple of younger backups in J.R. House and Gustavo Molina who provide some insurance against injury.

1B: Kevin Millar (.253/.363/.415 with 16 HR and 62 RBI in 467 AB)
Millar still has a lot left in the tank, and it’s a no-brainer that the Birds will exercise his option for 2008.

2B: Brian Roberts (.290/.377/.432 with 12 HR, 56 RBI and 48 SB in 611 AB)
This All-Star continues to outplay his physical stature. One of the building blocks for the Orioles of tomorrow.

SS: Miguel Tejada (.298/.356/.446 with 18 HR and 79 RBI in 504 AB)
Where’s the beef? Tejada seems to have lost all his pop, and he’s making too much to be a #2 hitter. He’s also slowing down at short. He’ll likely be moved this off-season to clear salary, and his new team could place him at 3rd.

3B: Melvin Mora (.275/.343/.423 with 14 HR and 56 RBI in 454 AB)
Unfortunately, Mora is locked in for two more years at $8+ million per. As a barely league average third baseman, you have to see him as a liability going forward.

RF: Nick Markakis (.295/.358/.478 with 22 HR and 110 RBI in 627 AB)
Best hitter on the club, and the key to their future. Put a power bat behind him, and you are looking at a much improved offense.

CF: Corey Patterson (.269/.304/.386 with 8 HR, 45 RBI and 37 SB in 461 AB)
Should not be a starter in the AL, and he’s finally a free agent this year. With only Tike Redman on the roster, could the Orioles make a big move for someone like Andruw Jones or Torii Hunter to fill this spot?

LF: Jay Payton (.255/.290/.362 with 6 HR and 54 RBI in 423 AB)
His numbers suggest that he’s best suited as a backup and not a regular. Maybe they could play Huff here and sign a pure DH-type like Mike Piazza? I doubt that owner Peter Angelos would consider signing Barry Bonds, though he could be a good fit.

DH: Aubrey Huff (.279/.335/.440 with 15 HR and 71 RBI in 548 AB)
Solid hitter, but Huff had an off year. He could rebound next season, especially if the Orioles are playing for something.

LF/RF: Jay Gibbons (.230/.272/.348 with 6 HR and 28 RBI in 270 AB)
A redundant piece that they don’t need. They should trade him if they can.

The biggest bright spot for the Orioles’ offense is Markakis, who may be developing some power to go along with a potent bat. 13 of his 22 HR have come after the ASB, and he is hitting a robust .315/.380/.538/.918 in that span. He’s your number 3/4 hitter next season. Baltimore is definitely entering the rebuilding stage, and that means their biggest contracts are on sale to the highest bidder. Their greatest need is a big bopper for the four or five hole to give this lineup some punch.

Pitching

The Orioles had the second-worst staff in the AL this year, with a team ERA of 5.09. The staff actually had four complete games and 9 shutouts to their credit, mostly due to their #1, but when they were bad, they were very bad. Remember, this is the team Texas touched up for an unbelievable 30 runs last month. The big problem? Walks. Lots of walks. Baltimore has walked 675 batters this season to lead the American League in that category. Very disappointing for a staff under the tutelage of Leo Mazzone.

After an ill-advised shopping spree in the 2006-2007 off-season in an attempt to build up its bullpen, that expensive bullpen has posted a 5.73 ERA this year, also second-worst in the AL. Note to Baltimore: you have to build your bullpen with youth, and sift out the keepers. It’s tough to sign middle-of-the-road relievers and expect them to repeat one good year.

Rotation: Erik Bedard, Jeremy Guthrie, Daniel Cabrera, Adam Loewen, Brian Burres

With Jaret Wright’s contract up, the top priority here is to add depth and to get Bedard to sign a long-term contract past 2008. Guthrie looks to become a solid workhorse, but you can’t depend on him as your number 2 pitcher, not in this division. Cabrera is one of those guys who could suddenly just get it and have an Oliver Perez-type year, and Loewen has shown some signs of being very solid. I hesitate to list Burres here, who was 6-7 with a 5.27 ERA in 16 starts. The Orioles should make a play for a significant free agent pitcher this off-season, or the team might possibly pick up Kris Benson’s option, and he could slot in instead.

Bullpen: Danys Baez, Jamie Walker, Chad Bradford, Fernando Cabrera, John Leicester

Baez and Walker are quality arms, but Bradford is marginal. The other veterans they have are mediocre and overpriced, and they would do well to unload as many of them as they can. Cabrera was a nice waiver wire grab, but I don’t think he’ll stick in the rotation. Leicester could become solid, but the O’s have a lot of candidates they need to work through. Look for this bullpen to be filled out through spring training, and be in flux early in 2008.

Closer: Chris Ray, Danys Baez

Ray kind of melted down this season, but health concerns might have been the issue. He’ll come back in this role unless Baltimore ponies up for another closer.

Defense

Baltimore has the fewest errors in the AL, and has some very solid defense all around. Roberts and Markakis are standouts here, Patterson is good, and Millar and Mora help form a tight infield. They should be good in this category again next year, but defense only takes you so far.

On the Farm

Baltimore’s farm system was ranked 18th at the beginning of this year by Baseball Prospectus. They don’t have a lot of high profile prospects above 20 years old, but they do have some depth there.

RP: James Hoey (8-6 with 49 saves and a 2.53 ERA and 10.28 K/9 in 5 minor league seasons)
Hoey has done his time down below, and done a very good job. The big righty is in his second callup, though he’s not throwing so well. He’ll at least get a look as a 7th inning or setup man next spring

SP: Radhames Liz (27-17 with a 3.34 ERA and 11.05 K/9 in 3 minor league seasons)
No, he’s not a character from Transformers. Liz is a 24-year old righty with some nasty stuff. He’s performed very well in minors, and once he learns some command, he could be a solid guy in the O’s rotation.

SP: Garrett Olson (21-17 with a 2.95 ERA and 8.82 K/9 in 3 minor league seasons)
Olson, like Liz, is currently getting a look with the parent club. He’s still a little green, but he’s more of a control guy, while Liz is a stuff guy. Olson, a lefty, could fill out the back end of the rotation by the end of next year.

OF: Jeff Fiorentino (.286/.360/.478/.838 in 4 minor league seasons)
A 24-year old who has been called up twice, but missed the bus this year. This left-handed hitter plays centerfield, and would have to step up if they don’t re-sign Patterson and don’t get a replacement. A balanced player, but not with a huge upside.

2008 Preview: Ranking the catchers

With the end of the season upon us, here are the top 5×5 roto performances from catchers this year, according to Yahoo!:

1. Jorge Posada, NYY. Had a career year at age 36, and is not likely to play catcher for the Yankees next year. Won’t rank #1 next season.
2. Victor Martinez, CLE. Had a great season, and is even improving defensively. With 25 HR and 111 RBI, he should be your #1 next year.
3. Russell Martin, LAD. Great breakout season for a lesser known catcher. The real surprise was all the steals!
4. Brian McCann, ATL. Despite some early struggles, McCann is still a very good hitting catcher.
5. Bengie Molina, SF. I didn’t see Molina having 89 RBI on a terrible Giants team. I don’t see him repeating it in 2008, either.
6. Kenji Johjima, SEA. Another solid season, but nothing to write home about.
7. Joe Mauer, MIN. His injuries limited him this year, but he’ll probably bounce back some next year.
8. Jason Varitek, BOS. I knew he wasn’t as bad as he looked last year. But his swing is slowing down, not a good thing.
9. Ivan Rodriguez, DET. The incredible shrinking man has lost all his pop.
10. Ronny Paulino, PIT. A strong second half has him edging out some better known names.

I hope that those of you who wasted a high pick on a catcher this year have learned your lesson. Only the top 3 players were really worth having this year; you could just pick up any catcher who’s hot and do okay otherwise. Catcher is one of those black holes in your lineup; if you can get something here, it’s a bonus, really.My early rankings for 2008: 

1. Victor Martinez. Consistently gets his at bats, and hits in the heart of a pretty good lineup.
2. Russell Martin. He’s still very young and could repeat this year’s performance. Maybe a slight regression off those numbers.
3. Mike Piazza. Will be DHing and playing backup C for some AL team next year. Give him a full year, and he’ll be valuable.
4. Brian McCann. Hopefully can shake off a subpar first half.
5. Joe Mauer. Injuries are always a concern, but he has the potential to top this list.
6. Jorge Posada. May not be hitting in that great Yankee lineup next season.
7. Kenji Johjima. Consistently a good pick, but not a great pick.
8. Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Given a full year, will get to show off his stick in Texas.
9. Ivan Rodriguez. Still a good contact hitter in a good lineup.
10. Jason Varitek. Usually bats 6th or 7th on a potent Red Sox team.

Injuries: Pujols, Wells are casualties

Vernon Wells is done for the year, so you should drop him if you haven’t already; and Albert Pujols is not likely to come back. If you have qualms about dropping your #1 overall pick, you can wait another day or two, and the Cardinals should announce their plans for Pujols.

2008 Preview: Kansas City Royals

With 64 wins, Kansas City has already surpassed last year’s win total, and they are just a 1/2 game back of the Chicago White Sox. In fact, this is the best record the Royals have managed since 2003, when they went 83-79, good for a third place finish in the division. Much of this can be credited to GM Dayton Moore, who saw the dire need for pitching on this club, and brought in arms like Gil Meche, Brian Bannister and Octavio Dotel on reasonable short-term contracts. I’ll admit it, I was mocking the Meche signing, but I wasn’t the only one at the time.

The Royals have some good homegrown talent that is just hitting the big leagues, but they still need a lot of help. The Royals badly need a shortstop and another starting pitcher. I’d say they are a good 2-3 years from being over .500, but they are well on their way to respectability. Mike Sweeney’s $11M/year contract is finally up this year, as well as backup catcher Jason LaRue’s $5M and Reggie Sanders’s $5M (none of whom is starting right now), which will allow the Royals to bring in at least a couple of key players this offseason.

Offense

The young offense has hit .263/.325/.391 as a team and managed 667 runs this season, ranking 13th in the AL out of 14 teams. They are dead last in HRs with 97, way below the AL average of 150 at this point in the season. The Royals have a lot of potential in their lineup, but need to improve their patience and add one slugger to the mix. They have a lot of players who are set in their positions, but lack a viable shortstop option.

C: John Buck (.226/.314/.446 with 18 HR and 48 RBI in 323 AB)
Has good power for a catcher, and is capable of hitting for a little more average. Pretty good defensively, but needs to work on his release.

1B: Ross Gload (.298/.322/.459 with 7 HR and 49 RBI in 292 AB)
Ryan Shealy (.221/.286/.308 with 3 HR and 21 RBI in 172 AB)
Gload is not the long-term answer here, and is really more of a platoon guy against righties. Shealy has a lot of upside and could develop into a pretty good power hitter, though his development took a step back this season.

2B: Mark Grudzielanek (.298/.343/.418 with 5 HR and 48 RBI in 423 AB)
Under-appreciated veteran is pretty consistent with the stick, and has a player option for 2008. Not much to talk about in the field. I think he’ll stick with the Royals.

SS: Tony Pena Jr. (.258/.277/.335 with 1 HR and 41 RBI in 481 AB)
Angel Berroa (.300/.364/.433 at AAA Omaha this year)
Pena Jr. is fine defensively, but it’s atrocious to give that many at-bats to a guy with a .611 OPS. Berroa is still in the minors as well, but my sense is that Moore will want to land a higher ceiling prospect to fill this job opening.

3B: Alex Gordon (.257/.323/.431 with 15 HR and 59 RBI in 506 AB)
This youngster is expected to be a cornerstone for the Royals for years to come. Scuffled a lot early at the plate, but his second-half numbers (.291/.326/.531) are pretty darn good, and his defense is second to none.

RF: Mark Teahen (.283/.355/.405 with 7 HR and 57 RBI in 506 AB)
His power numbers regressed a lot from last season, but Teahen is a very solid outfielder and a good hitter. Will patrol right for the foreseeable future.

CF: David DeJesus (.269/.358/.384 with 7 HR and 58 RBI in 573 AB)
One of the more underrated leadoff hitters in the game, IMHO. Does all of the little things, and is capable of more with the bat.

LF: Emil Brown (.254/.298/.348 with 6 HR and 59 RBI in 342 AB)
Not a spectacular player, but a fairly productive one, especially compared to the rest of the Royals’ lineup. He’ll start the year as a starter, but will probably stick around as a backup.

DH: Billy Butler (.295/.352/.451 with 7 HR and 49 RBI in 295 AB)
Kansas City will need this rookie’s productive bat in the lineup in order to succeed. Can’t really play regular defense, just in a fill-in role at 1B or in left.

Pitching

Even though the Royals are 8th in ERA this year with a team 4.47 mark, this is still the area of greatest need, and likely the greatest flux this offseason. KC got only one complete game this season out of its starters, and could really use an innings-eater like Livan Hernandez. The team holds options on both Odalis Perez and David Riske, both of which I think they will exercise. Look for them to add one more impact starter as well as upgrade their bullpen with another hard thrower and a quality right-handed setup man.

Rotation: Gil Meche, Brian Bannister, Odalis Perez, Brandon Duckworth, Zack Greinke

Meche provides stability, though I wouldn’t rate him as a #1. Bannister needs to build on his second-half success this year. Perez and Duckworth are placeholders, though Greinke can improve quite a bit if he can get his head together.

Bullpen: David Riske, Jimmy Gobble, Joel Peralta, Jorge de la Rosa, Roman Colon

Riske is a decent pitcher, but not a setup man. Gobble is a mopup guy, Peralta is interesting but has no control, and de la Rosa could be a decent lefty specialist. The Royals really need to stock this bullpen and quick. Colon is a hard thrower who could be a key to their success.

Closer: Joakim Soria (1-3 with 16 SV and a 2.53 ERA and 9.84 K/9 in 64IP)

Soria is a fine closer, and should do well from here on out. He’s got good stuff, and should be able to hold down this job.

Defense

Kansas City boasts some strong very defenders in Gordon and Pena Jr., but no one else is really outstanding. Buck is good, and Teahen looks to be at least average in right once he gets fully adjusted from 3B. David DeJesus is just above average in center, but the rest of the team is not very accomplished with the leather. The Royals need to work hard to minimize the effects of defense next season. Some key defensive reserves are in order in Kansas City.

On the Farm

Kansas City is almost a farm team itself, with so many young players. But there are a number of contributors who are waiting in the wings, too.

SP: Luke Hochevar (5-11 with a 4.26 ERA and 8.91 K/9 in 2 minor league seasons)
This first-round pick has done well in two major league relief appearances, and will be ready to join this rotation hopefully by the end of next year.

C/1B: Justin Huber (.288/.383/.495 in 7 minor league seasons)
Huber is a lanky 6′ 5″ catcher who will likely shift over to 1B in the majors. He’s been set back by injuries, but he’s got some good power potential; the challenge is how to get his bat into the lineup.

C/OF: Mitch Maier (.295/.342/.456 in 5 minor league seasons)
Maier came up as a catcher, but is now playing the outfield for AAA Omaha. Has a pretty potent bat, and may make the team next season.

SP: Billy Buckner (32-28 with a 4.27 ERA and 8.22 K/9 in 4 minor league seasons)
Try not to think about the name. Buckner is a solid right-hander with a good strikeout to walk ratio, and could contribute in 2008.

2008 Preview: Tampa Bay Devil Rays

I am going to preview each team for the 2008 season, profiling what they have, and what they need going into this offseason. I will begin with the AL teams with the worst records first, since they are clearly out of contention and rebuilding towards next season.

The Rays, at 63-87 currently, have the worst record in the American League. Tampa Bay has finished in last place in the competitive AL East the past two seasons, but thing are not as bleak as they once were. The improving offense boasts a load of talented, young players, and the Rays have some top pitching prospects coming through the system finally to bolster a rotation that already features Scott Kazmir and James Shields.

Tampa has the best young outfield in baseball, and some good offensive potential. They lose almost no one of consequence to free agency this this year. In fact, with so many good young players under their control, I could see the Rays making a move this offseason with one or two big acquisitions to try and make a push for the next few years. Their biggest needs are at catcher and in the bullpen, and they could use another really solid starter.

Offense

Year    RS	AL Rank	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2005	750	8th	.274	.329	.425	.754
2006	689	14th	.255	.314	.420	.733
2007	734	7th	.271	.337	.437	.774

This is clearly the best offensive season for the Devil Rays in years, and their young stars should improve from here. The young Rays are finally learning some patience and their other numbers are benefiting from that.

C: Dioner Navarro (.229/.290/.357 with 8 HR and 40 RBI in 353 AB)
Once the Dodgers’ top catching prospect, Navarro is nothing special at the moment. He is not yet arbitration eligible, and will return next year.

1B: Carlos Pena (.276/.397/.607 with 40 HR and 112 RBI in 456 AB)
Pena is arbitration-eligible after this breakout year, but as a fourth-year player stands to make in the vicinity of $4M next season. The Rays could offer him a three-year deal.

2B: Brendan Harris (.286/.343/.431 with 12 HR and 59 RBI in 517 AB)
Harris shifted over from shortstop when Upton moved to CF. He could shift back if the Rays choose to put Iwamura at 2B. He’s been a solid performer for Tampa this year, but who knows about next year?

SS: Josh Wilson (.275/.310/.389 with 2 HR and 23 RBI in 229 AB)
Wilson, acquired from the Washington Nationals, is nothing more than a stopgap here.

3B: Akinori Iwamura (.284/.357/.408 with 7 HR and 30 RBI in 444 AB)
Iwamura has been a solid signing for the Rays. His high OBP has made him their leadoff hitter. I wouldn’t be surprised if he showed a little more power next season.

RF: Delmon Young (.293/.322/.414 with 12 HR and 87 RBI in 597 AB)
Just barely starting to tap his significant physical gifts. Young will be a force to be reckoned with in two years or less.

CF: B.J. Upton (.308/.392/.532 with 24 HR and 81 RBI in 438 AB)
This rookie has really shown this season that he belongs. Playing in CF minimizes his defensive shortcomings, so look for the team to shop Rocco Baldelli this offseason for some pitching.

LF: Carl Crawford (.315/.355/.466 with 11 HR and 80 RBI in 584 AB)
One of the best left fielders in the game, Crawford is signed through 2008 and the team holds two one-year options on him. A steal at $5.25M next season.

OF: Rocco Baldelli (.204/.268/.358 with 5 HR and 12 RBI in 137 AB)
Baldelli is supremely talented, but has struggled a lot with injuries (he has only 501 AB the past two years). There isn’t a lot of room in this outfield, so he and his increasing salary could be moved this offseason.

OF: Elijah Dukes (.190/.318/.391 with 10 HR and 21 RBI in 184 AB)
Struggled against major-league pitching this year, but this toolsy player could be the 4th outfielder next season. Once he stops swinging for the fences every time, he might hit for some average.

OF/DH: Jonny Gomes (.252/.324/.465 with 15 HR and 44 RBI in 314 AB)
Has always had the raw power, but can’t hit righties to save his life. Could be trade bait for a pitcher this offseason.

Pitching

Tampa’s rotation is ranked 12th in the AL with a 5.17 ERA (the league average is 4.64) and has the worst bullpen ERA (by far) at 6.29 (average is 4.30). However, there is some light at the end of the tunnel. They have struck out the most hitters in the AL this year, and they no longer lead the league in walks. Getting a quality starter with good control would go a long way towards improving their pitching in 2008.

Rotation: Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Edwin Jackson, Andy Sonnanstine, Jason Hammel

Kazmir is a legitimate #1 starter, and Shields is a solid #3 or possibly #2. Jackson and Sonnanstine are not horrible back-of-the-rotation options, but Hammel doesn’t belong in a big league rotation. If the Rays could trade for a starter or sign someone like Curt Schilling, they could potentially leapfrog Baltimore in the division.

Bullpen: Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, Juan Salas

Wheeler is a legitimate setup guy, Balfour (bad pitcher name, don’t you think?) can fill out a major league bullpen, and Salas is a live arm. The Rays need a lot of help in this department. A lot of people were scratching their heads when the Rays acquired Wheeler, but I think they plan to beef up this pen and take a huge step forward, and soon. They will wheel and deal this offseason, trust me.

Closer: Al Reyes (4.85 ERA with 24 of 27 SV in 55.2 IP)
Reyes did better job of closing for Tampa this year than his ERA reflects (only 3 BS this year), and they will definitely exercise his $1 million club option to bring him back.

Defense

The Rays are strong at third with Iwamura, and in left with Crawford. The rest of the team often misplays balls and the errors have cost them this season (2nd most errors in the AL this year). The boys are young, so they can definitely get better. Tampa should hire some good defensive coaches and get started early if they’re serious about turning this club around.

On the Farm

The Rays are stocked with top draft picks. These are some of the ones you’re likely to see in 2008:

SP: Jeff Niemann (17-13 with a 3.58 ERA and 9.38 K/9 in 3 minor league seasons)
Big righty with nasty stuff and precocious control. Could compete for a rotation spot next summer.

3B: Evan Longoria (.304/.388/.546 in 2 minor league seasons)
Just 21, this top draft pick in 2006 could be ready to complete Tampa’s infield by next July or August. Has the best power stroke in their whole farm system.

SS: Reid Brignac (.288/.347/.465 in 4 minor league seasons)
Brignac struggled some at AA Montgomery this season, but he’s got some good tools. Right now, he looks more like a September callup, but with the Rays, you just never know.

Free agent: Arizona lands Wickman

The Diamondbacks signed free agent pitcher Bob Wickman yesterday. He has joined their roster, but will not be eligible for the postseason. Wickman was holding out for an opportunity to close, but there were no takers.

It’s no wonder; Wickman was released by Atlanta earlier this year after blowing 6 of 26 save opportunities. He did have a 3.92 ERA, but walked an uncharacteristic 20 hitters in just 43.2 IP, and saw his K rate drop at the same time.

With Jose Valverde closing games successfully for the Dbacks, it’s unlikely that Wickman will have much fantasy value. Even if Valverde were to get injured, it’s not clear that Wickman would be next in line to close. Just to let you know.

Waiver wire: A few to grab

I was able to pick up some pretty good (or hot) players recently off the free agents list. If any of these guys is available, you’d do well to add them now.

Garrett Anderson, OF. I held off as long as I could, because I was sure that Anderson’s career was pretty much over. But after starting September at a blistering .458/.563/.958 pace with an amazing 4 HR and 14 RBI in just 7 games, I finally decided to give in. Despite having just 15 HR on the year, he also hit 6 HR last month, giving him 10 in a month and a half. Not bad. And he’s available in about 60% of Yahoo! leagues.

Chad Billingsley, SP. I have no idea what this guy was doing unclaimed, but Billingsley has gone 10-4 for the Dodgers with a 3.22 ERA and 123 Ks in 128.1 IP. He throws some serious heat, and seems to have overcome his control woes. Since the ASB, he’s 5-4 with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP; at least two of those losses should have been wins but for no run support. He’s dominated some good lineups already this year, and his future looks bright. Snap him up if you see him.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C/1B. Since the trade to the Rangers, Salty has hit well for a catcher, with 6 HR, 20 R and 16 RBI. In the last month, he’s been the second most productive catcher (as measured in a standard 5×5 format), behind Russ Martin. He doesn’t walk, and he does strike out a lot, but his batting average is on the rise. I picked him up in two of my leagues, and if he’s available in your league, you should get him too.

Sleepers: 2008 pitchers preview

For those of you in keeper leagues, you should already be finding guys who will be able to break out next season. Here are some of my early thoughts:

Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP. Don’t hesitate to draft this guy early in 2008. Matsuzaka should have at least three more wins to his name this season, which would put him at 17-8 instead of 14-11. He has a K rate of 8.77/9 IP and will figure out how to pitch in this league. I wouldn’t be surprised if he contends for a Cy Young next season, as he improves his communication and working relationship with Jason Varitek.

Tim Lincecum, SP. Don’t know if he qualifies as a sleeper, but this top prospect is for real, and he has arrived. In just 22 GS, he’s already had 5 dominant starts and fanned 142 in 133.1 IP. His 7-4 record on the Giants is pretty impressive by itself. He’s been even better the second half, which leads me to him being one of better pitchers next year.

Matt Cain, SP. His 7-14 record might scare some people off, but Cain is a legitimate #2 guy. A good K rate, pretty consistent, he will make up a pretty good rotation with Lincecum for years to come.

Brian Bannister, SP. Bannister has posted an ERA+ of 151 this season, going 12-7 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 23 starts for the Royals. He’s 4th in the AL in ERA, and has exhibited very good control, which is a sign of maturity for a 26-year old pitcher. Pair him with Gil Meche, and that rotation is no longer a joke. Bannister may not be popular next year because of his limited starts this year and the fact that he plays for the Royals, but I’m telling you, Dayton Moore is well on the road to respectability over in Kansas City.

Shawn Hill, SP. The Washington Nationals are not as upward bound as the Royals, but having Hill in their rotation is a good start. The righty is tied for 7th in baseball with a 141 ERA+, along with Kelvim Escobar (you may have heard of him). He’s just 3-3 with a 2.98 ERA in 13 starts, but they have been very good starts against some pretty good teams. He’s only allowed 4 HR all year, which seems to be his key to success.

Chad Billingsley, SP. The Dodgers vaunted farm system is showing some tangible results. Billingsley has gone 10-4 as a reliever and a starter this season, boasting a 3.30 ERA and a fine strikeout rate (8.66 K/9). He has really dominated in many starts, and been a hard-luck loser in a couple of games, so he could be 12-2 right now. Just 22 years old, keep an eye on him, as control could become an issue again.

Matt Garza, SP. This young man has performed pretty well in his 11 starts, and the Twins have little choice but to keep him in the rotation for next season. Despite his 3-5 record, Garza has a 3.49 ERA and an ERA+ of 126. The 23-year old really shone on July 29 against Cleveland, striking out 11 over 6 innings in a no decision. That’s the kind of pitcher this top prospect can be. You get the sense that a rotation comprosed of Santana, Liriano, Garza, Bonser and Baker wouldn’t be too shabby.

A.J. Burnett, SP. You guys know I’m already high on Burnett for next year. At 30 years old, he seems to have gone from throwing to pitching, and his fastball is as explosive as ever. He’s struck out 136 victims in 128.2 IP, and his ERA+ is at a healthy 125.

Waiver wire: Matt Stairs

I’ve been saying all season long that there’s no way Matt Stairs can possibly keep up what he’s doing, and that he’ll come back down to earth, but he’s hit .311/.384/.611 in 283 AB this season. The left-handed hitter has 19 HR and 55 RBI in limited playing time, and has been totally on fire since the All-Star break (.364/.452/.761 in 88 AB). Credit J.P. Ricciardi, Stairs was a great pickup for the Jays.

Stairs can still be a good pickup for you too, so long as you know that he plays almost exclusively against right-handers. So go get him while the gettin’s good.