Trade: Edgar Renteria is now a Detroit Tiger

With the emergence of Yunel Escobar, the Atlanta Braves were expected to shop Edgar Renteria this offseason. The Tigers, too, were expected to acquire a shortstop to replace Carlos Guillen in the field, who is moving to first due to health issues. It was kind of a surprise how soon this deal happened, but Detroit GM Dave Dombrowski likes to hit the offseason running, before other teams get a chance to get in on the action.

Renteria recovered nicely from his nightmare 2005 season in Boston, making the All-Star team in 2006 and hitting .293 and .332 in two seasons since. He had a pretty good 2007, posting an OPS+ of 125. He appears to be just below average defensively. Expect him to be a league-average shortstop for the Tigers. He has one year left on his contract, along with a one-year option for 2009. This is a better move than Detroit acquiring Jack Wilson from the Pirates, as some rumors had speculated.

Going to Atlanta are two prospects from the Detroit farm, pitcher Jair Jurrjens and 20-year old Gorkys Hernandez. Jurrjens has gone 35-32 with a 3.21 ERA in 5 minor league seasons. He is just 21, but pitched well at double-A in 2007 and could land in the back of the Braves rotation sometime next season if he continues to develop. Hernandez is considered a top 10 centerfield prospect, and has already shown a lot of promise at single-A in his year 19 season. A good deal for both teams.

2008 Preview: Ranking OF

There was a general power outage all over baseball this year, and we had the fewest number of outfielders with 30 HR (8) in a long time (consider that there were 15 guys who did it last year), and Adam Dunn was the only OF with 40 dingers in 2007. The outfield is a difficult position to rank, because it’s very easy for young prospects to come out of left field, so to speak, and do well (i.e. Hunter Pence this year). I will list my top 10 outfielders for 2008, and then have a tier system with which you can fill up your outfield.

Name			2008	2007

Matt Holliday		1	1
Vladimir Guerrero	2	7
Magglio Ordonez		3	2
Carl Crawford		4	9
Manny Ramirez		5	31
Grady Sizemore		6	12
Carlos Beltran		7	8
Lance Berkman		8	18
Ichiro Suzuki		9	3
Alfonso Soriano		10	17

Matt Holliday will continue to hit for great power and average, and Mile High Stadium can only help him. Vladimir Guerrero will give you some very consistent production, and hopefully the Angels will acquire some protection for him this offseason. I wouldn’t expect Magglio Ordonez to repeat this season, but he does look to be fully healthy once again. Carl Crawford had a down power year, but he’s still a very valuable player. Manny Ramirez will come back healthy in 2008.

Tier II

Eric Byrnes		Adam Dunn	Curtis Granderson
Corey Hart		Brad Hawpe	Torii Hunter
Andruw Jones		Carlos Lee	Nick Markakis
Hideki Matsui		Alex Rios	Aaron Rowand
Gary Sheffield		Chris B. Young (ARI)

Tier III

Bobby Abreu		Rocco Baldelli	Pat Burrell
Michael Cuddyer		Johnny Damon	J.D. Drew
Jermaine Dye		Jeff Francoeur	Ken Griffey Jr.
Jose Guillen		Raul Ibanez	Hunter Pence
Juan Pierre		Nick Swisher	Mark Teahen
B.J. Upton		Shane Victorino	Josh Willingham

Sleepers 

Matt Diaz	Jacoby Ellsbury	Josh Hamilton
Jeremy Hermida	Matt Kemp	Justin Upton
Delmon Young

2008 Preview: Ranking SS

Name			2008	2007

Hanley Ramirez		1	1
Jimmy Rollins		2	2
Jose Reyes		3	3
Troy Tulowitski		4	4
Derek Jeter		5	5
Carlos Guillen*		6	6
Michael Young		7	8
Miguel Tejada		8	13
Orlando Cabrera		9	7
Julio Lugo		10	18

*Could lose position eligibility

Despite some veteran players not quite meeting expectations (that means you, Rafael Furcal), this was a good year for shortstops. Several young, breakout stars firmly established themselves among baseball’s elite.

Yes, I know what kind of season Jimmy Rollins had, but Hanley Ramirez is still better. He’s a better bet to match his home run production in 2008 than Rollins is. They’re pretty close, fantasy value-wise, huge contributors in the runs and SB categories.

Speaking of stolen bases, Jose Reyes just keeps raising the bar. His 78 thefts this season were the most by any player since Marquis Grissom in 1992. Two straight years of .354 OBP signals good things to come for the 24-year old.

I’m a little wary of ranking a rookie above Derek Jeter here, especially after my Stephen Drew debacle this year, but Troy Tulowitski does play for the Rockies. I’d expect him to come close but not surpass those 24 HR in 2008. He’s still a very good hitter with very good doubles power.

The plan for Carlos Guillen is for him to shift to first base permanently, due to health concerns. If he manages to play a little bit of shortstop and qualify there in 2008, so much the better for fantasy owners. Watch and see who the Tigers get this offseason.

Michael Young is still a quality hitter, but his value is diminished by a couple of weaker seasons and the demise of the Rangers. He will continue to hit 3rd on this rebuilding club.

Miguel Tejada is not quite washed up, and getting traded may rejuvenate his career. It is highly likely he will end up with another club, and that could affect his fantasy value greatly.

Orlando Cabrera has been an important cog of the Angels’ offense, and they’ll keep leaning on his production. I’d forecast a slippage in the batting average, but everything else should be there.

You have to think that Julio Lugo will hit better next season, and the steals are a nice bonus. He hit .280/.322/.406 post-ASB this season, which is closer to his career line. I don’t think he’ll stick atop the lineup, with Ellsbury and Pedroia expected to be there, but he’ll do enough in a potent lineup.

Sleepers include Rafael Furcal, Stephen Drew, Aaron Hill, Brendan Harris and Jason Bartlett. Also watch Clint Barmes, if he is traded this offseason.

2008 Preview: Ranking 3B

Name			2008	2007

Alex Rodriguez		1	1
David Wright		2	2
Miguel Cabrera		3	4
Garrett Atkins		4	7
Ryan Braun*		5	5
Chipper Jones		6	3
Aramis Ramirez		7	9
Troy Glaus		8	27
Mike Lowell		9	6
Adrian Beltre		10	8

* Could lose position eligibility

Used to be that you found all your top ten offensive performers at first base or in the outfield, but third base is almost as deep as first base these days.

Alex Rodriguez was far and away the most valuable fantasy player this year, and should be the first third baseman taken in every draft. If he switches teams, it could hurt hs value a little.

David Wright came on strong and was a 30/30 guy. One of the most balanced players in the game.

Miguel Cabrera can do whatever he wants with the baseball already, and look for his power to increase(!) as 2008 will be his age 25 season.

Don’t let the bad first half fool you. Garrett Atkins is an exceptional hitter in Mile High Stadium, and a very good one everywhere else.

Ryan Braun will probably suffer from a sophomore slide, but given his rookie numbers, it’s worth the risk to draft him.

Everyone who mocked me for drafting Chipper Jones for 2007 isn’t laughing now.

Aramis Ramirez is capable of doing better, and should in 2008.

Troy Glaus is a top power man. He only got 385 at-bats this season, but hit 20 HR anyways.

Mike Lowell had one of his best seasons ever, and I’d expect him to back off of those numbers somewhat in 2008.

Adrian Beltre is a solid third baseman, and is due for a big year soon.

Alex Gordon of the Royals and Edwin Encarnacion of the Reds (in that order) narrowly missed this list, and some other players to watch include Mark Reynolds (D’backs), Hank Blalock (Rangers) and Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals).

2008 Preview: Ranking 2B

I thought I’d try a different layout, to make this a little more compact. I give my 2008 projected ranking, as well as the Yahoo! Fantasy ranking for this past season.

Name			2008	2007

Chase Utley		1	2
Brandon Phillips	2	1
Brian Roberts		3	3
B.J. Upton*		4	4
Robinson Cano		5	5
Howie Kendrick		6	30
Chone Figgins*		7	7
Dan Uggla		8	8
Dustin Pedroia		9	15
Rickie Weeks		10	21

* Could lose position elegibility

There are a ton of talented, young second basemen in the majors. Of this list, only Chase Utley is out of his 20s, and that not by much.

Brandon Phillips was the most valuable this year, but the top second baseman by far is still Utley (.976 OPS). Look for Phillips to be overvalued in next year’s drafts.

B.J. Upton defied all the statheads (here, here and here for example) this year by hitting .300/.386/.508. He did that with a very high .404 BABIP (2nd in all of baseball to Chone Figgins), which suggests that he will not repeat the batting average. The power and the speed, however, are for real, and could make him a good fantasy second baseman IF he doesn’t lose eligibility by moving to centerfield permanently. Unfortunately for fantasy buffs, he seems to hurt the Rays least defensively in the outfield.

Robinson Cano plays in a great lineup, and could move up in the order, should they lose or move some players this offseason. Him batting first or second would boost his fantasy value significantly.

Howie Kendrick was limited by injuries this season, but he’s shown he can hit at this level now. Some see him as a future batting champion, so don’t be afraid to draft him.

Figgins also had a very high BABIP of .409, which makes sense because he is not really a .330 hitter. Still, the stolen bases are there year after year. With the emergence of Howie Kendrick, he may not have many chances to play 2B from now on.

Uggla has proven his power stroke, and if he can bring that batting average back up, he’ll be quite valuable again. Could be a bargain pick in 2008, after so many were disappointed by him this year.

Dustin Pedroia won’t hit 20 HR or steal 20 bases, but he’s a good bet to hit .300 again, and if he sticks first or second in the Red Sox lineup, he’s a lock to score 100 runs and drive in his fair share of runs, too.

Rickie Weeks just has too much talent, and he could break out at any time. He’s was almost a 20/20 guy this year, despite hitting only .235 for the year. That should tell you something.

My next pick would be Ian Kinsler, who started off strong, slowed down, then got hurt, ruining his fantasy season. Still made the 20/20 club, but just don’t expect .300 to be on his resume for 2008. The Rangers are also gonna be bad for a while without Teixeira. Also just missing this list was Toronto’s Aaron Hill, who should be hitting in a better offense next season. Some other sleepers to watch include the Indians’ Asdrubal Cabrera, who took away the starting job at the end of the season, Kelly Johnson (Braves) and Ryan Theriot (Cubs).

Tigers re-sign Pudge; Rivera and A-Rod to go free

The Detroit Tigers exercised their $13M option on catcher Ivan Rodriguez yesterday. The incredible shrinking man has lost a lot of pop and had a mediocre season, but the Tigers need some time to find a replacement for the perennial All-Star.

Mariano Rivera acknowledged that he will test the market after his contract with the Yankees is up this off-season. The 38-year old closer is currently third on the all-time list for saves with 443 and would be a hotly pursued commodity, despite a bad start to this season and subpar (for him) numbers. He’s made $10.5M the last three seasons, so I’d expect him to land a 2- or 3-year deal at maybe $8-10M per (unless he sticks with NY). Could this signal that Joba Chamberlain is the Yankees’ new closer?

To no one’s surprise, Scott Boras hinted that fellow Yankee Alex Rodriguez will indeed opt out of his contract and hit the free agent market. It is thought that at least the Cubs, Angels, Dodgers and Red Sox will be vying for his services. He had a career year with 54 HR and 156 RBI, but I’m beginning to think that his next deal won’t top $30M per season after all, as initially was rumored. Pretty close, but it seems like interest in him is somewhat tepid, given his clubhouse problems and lack of production in the playoffs. If Rodriguez does indeed leave, then the Yankees have Wilson Betemit to take over at third base.

Free agents: Glavine declines $13M option

Looks like Tom Glavine has had it with the Mets. He turned down his player option for next season. Glavine has spoken of retirement, but he may want to go for one more World Series with a contender; perhaps a shortened season? Perhaps back to Altanta?

In other news, Jason Isringhausen had his option picked up by the Cards, and that’s a very good thing considering his performance this season.

The Pirates are purging, and they fired manager Jim Tracy yesterday. Dan Duquette also resigned as Orioles’ VP of baseball operations.

Piniella on the hot seat for pulling Big Z

Am I the only one who is totally flabbergasted by Lou Piniella’s decision to pull Carlos Zambrano from game 1 after just six innings and 85 pitches? Big Z was on a roll too, having allowed just two soft singles since a Stephen Drew homer in the 4th. As it was, rookie Carlos Marmol came into the game and Arizona took the lead in the bottom of the 7th. Piniella’s reasoning? He wanted to save Zambrano so that he could start game 4 on 3 days’ rest. To be fair, the Cubs’ pitching staff has been one of the best in baseball this year, and they could reasonably expect to get to game 4.

But last I checked, you have to actually win game 1 before you worry about game 4 in a short series. What if you get swept out of the series before then? It’s easy to second-guess after the fact, but there’s no way he should have pulled Zambrano that early in a 1-1 game. If the Cubs lose this series, Piniella should lose his job over this one.

Free agents: Andruw Jones will not re-sign

It wasn’t a big surprise, but the cash-strapped Atlanta Braves decided to invest in Mark Teixeira as their big bat, and allow Andruw Jones to go to free agency. The 5-time All-Star and 9-time Gold Glove winner has hit .263/.342/.497 in his career and has 368 HR in twelve seasons, all with Atlanta. He has been a part of 10 NLDS, 5 NLCS and 2 World Series. Though slowing down a bit and falling short of his career numbers this season, Jones is still expected to command a multi-year contract worth $14 million plus per year. He is represented by Scott Boras, so I would not be surprised a bit if that happens.

Some have intimated that teams would be reluctant to put up long money after a season in which Jones hit only .222/.311/.413 with 26 HR and 94 RBI. There is a small chance that he would sign a one-year deal for enough money.

The Braves will pursue a less costly option in centerfield. They have been linked to Boston’s Coco Crisp in the past. If they don’t trade Edgar Renteria in the off-season, perhaps they would consider moving either Yunel Escobar or Kelly Johnson out there?

2008 Preview: Chicago White Sox

After winning the World Series just two years ago, the Chicago White Sox have been a huge disappointment at 72-90 on the year. Injuries and underachievement did them in. The pitching has faltered somewhat the past two years, and GM Ken Williams has begun dismantling this rotation. He’s done a pretty good job of loading up on young arms, it’s just a matter of when these guys will be ready. From the looks of it, the White Sox need them to be ready NOW.

The White Sox have some big holes to fill up the middle, at 2B, SS and CF. With the team salary sitting at $109M right now, and Mark Buehrle due a $5M raise this season, look for the Sox to try and move at least one expensive part this off-season. The most obvious targets would be Javier Vazquez ($11.5M per through 2010), Jon Garland ($12M in 2008, his last year) and Jose Contreras ($10M in 2008 and 2009, ouch). Good luck moving Contreras at that price point. Williams has had a lot of interest in Garland, but he has been asking way too much considering that Garland will make $12M and has just one year left on his contract. Vazquez had a pretty good season, and interest in him should be high, but he holds a limited no-trade clause which allows him to block moves to 9 teams in the AL West or the NL West.

Offense

It wasn’t just the pitching that doomed the Sox in 2007. Their offense finished dead last in the AL with just 693 runs scored. They batted just .246 as a team and weren’t patient. Some of their biggest run producers slumped at the same time, with 1B Paul Konerko and RF Jermaine Dye both having bad years. They lost starting 3B Joe Crede early in the season, and DH Jim Thome missed some time, which didn’t help things. They did slug 190 HR, second in the AL, but it wasn’t enough to overcome their deficiencies. With a little bit of retooling, they could rebound in a big way in 2008.

C: A.J. Pierzynski (.263/.309/.403 with 14 HR and 50 RBI in 472 AB)
Toby Hall (.207/.225/.241 with 3 RBI in 116 AB)
An above-average hitting catcher, Pierzynski was one of the regulars with a down year. He just re-signed for 3 more years, so will be a mainstay in Chicago for some time. Hall is a good backup.

1B: Paul Konerko (.259/.351/.490 with 31 HR and 90 RBI in 549 AB)
Konerko was in a season-long slump, and for the Sox to contend, they need him to be better. He’s locked in long-term, and I expect for him to rebound some next season.

2B: Danny Richar (.230/.289/.406 with 6 HR and 15 RBI in 187 AB)
Tadahito Iguchi (.251/.340/.382 with 6 HR and 31 RBI in 327 AB)
Since they moved Iguchi at the trading deadline, this is a huge area of need for the White Sox. They will sign one of the free agents out there or trade for a starter, because Richar is not ready.

SS: Juan Uribe (.234/.284/.394 with 20 HR and 68 RBI in 513 AB)
That is a lot of at-bats to be giving a guy with a .678 OPS. Thankfully, the 28-year old Uribe’s contract is over, and I do not see Williams exercising his team option on him. I would trade for a shortstop, maybe a Clint Barmes or somebody.

3B: Joe Crede (.216/.258/.317 with 4 HR and 22 RBI in 167 AB)
Josh Fields (.244/.308/.480 with 23 HR and 67 RBI in 373 AB)
With Crede locked in long-term, I would expect the Sox to either move Fields into left field for next season, or move him to another team. Fields could be a much better hitter if he focused less on power.

RF: Jermaine Dye (.254/.317/.486 with 28 HR and 78 RBI in 508 AB)
A lousy first half was redeemed by a .298/.368/.579 second half, and Chicago has him for two more years.

CF: Jerry Owens (.267/.324/.312 with 1 HR and 17 RBI in 356 AB)
Owens should in no way be a starter in the majors. 12 XBH in that many AB is just embarrassing; he’s Podsednik lite, if that’s possible. His speed and defense suit him perfectly as a fourth outfielder, so look for the Sox to play for a short-term centerfielder this winter. They don’t have much salary wiggle room, so they will have to trade somebody. If Andruw Jones would sign a one-year deal, he’d be a great match here, with Ryan Sweeney coming up through the farm system.

LF: Josh Fields (see above)
Scott Podsednik (.243/.299/.369 with 2 HR and 11 RBI in 214 AB)
Chicago should trade Podsednik, who is eligible for salary arbitration this offseason (he will make just over $3M next year), and pick up one of the pieces they need.

DH: Jim Thome (.275/.410/.563 with 35 HR and 96 RBI in 432 AB)
His .275 average led the team, if you don’t count backup Rob Mackowiak’s .278. The White Sox need him to step up big if they are to compete next season.

1B/OF: Darin Erstad (.248/.310/.335 with 4 HR and 32 RBI in 310 AB)
There is no way the team should exercise their $3.5M option on him. Luis Terrero can be a fine backup.

This lineup should do a lot better next season without touching a thing. That being said, there are no starters at 2B, SS or in CF, and that will be a huge headache for Chicago entering this offseason. They should target one key acquisition and just fill the other two spots with stopgaps. I know Miguel Tejada wants to play out west, but could Chicago be a possible fit?

Pitching

Chicago’s staff was ranked 12th in the AL in ERA, with a 4.77 team mark. They had decent walk and strikeout numbers, but they just allowed a lot of hits and a lot of runs. The young bullpen blew a lot of saves. Their overall performance suggests that the White Sox staff suffered a bit of bad luck, and should do better next year.

Rotation: Mark Buehrle, Javier Vazquez, Jon Garland, Jose Contreras, John Danks

The rotation is actually pretty good (they had 88 quality starts this year, 4th in the AL, and had 9 complete game shutouts, the same as Cleveland), but the front four as listed here would make almost $50M in 2008, and this is no $50M rotation. Like I said, expect one or two of these middle 3 guys to be gone, and the 5th slot can be filled by Gavin Floyd, Lance Broadway, or a number of other youngsters.

Bullpen: Matt Thornton, Boone Logan, Ryan Bukvich, Mike MacDougal, Mike Myers

This bullpen features a lot of potential. Thornton is a good long man, and Logan and Bukvich are decent fillers. MacDougal is capable of so much more, but he doesn’t seem to have his head on right. Ken Williams is bringing Mike Myers back, though with Thornton and Logan also being lefties, I have no idea why. Sisco is an intriguing lefty (he’s 6′ 10″) that Williams positively stole from Kansas City, and Aardsma can strike people out. The Sox need to bring in one veteran setup man for this pen to work.

Closer: Bobby Jenks

Jenks has been pretty consistent for the Sox, and really turned it on late, posting a 2.15 ERA with 20 saves after the All-Star break. He only walked one batter in the whole second half!

Defense

Chicago had the third most errors in the AL this year, and could stand to improve in this area. Konerko and Owens are good defensively, and Dye is pretty solid, if he lacks some range. A lot rides on who they get to fill the open positions up the middle. Getting Crede back next season will help a lot too.

On the farm

CF: Ryan Sweeney (.289/.351/.401 in 5 minor league seasons)
The Sox have tried to give the centerfielder job to Brian Anderson the past two seasons, but that hasn’t worked out too well. At 22 years old, Sweeney is the most toolsy hitter the Sox have, plays great defense, and should be ready pretty soon.

SP: Lance Broadway (17-20 with a 3.82 ERA and 6.88 K/9 in 3 minor league seasons)
Broadway is not a real flamethrower, but he’s competing well at triple-A for a 23-year old. This righty had a September callup and impressed people with his big curveball, so with some work on his control, he may have a shot sometime in 2008.

SP: Charles Haeger (36-43 with a 3.78 ERA and 6.32 K/9 in 6 minor league seasons)
Haeger is one of those rare pitchers who regularly throws a knuckleball. He also has a fastball and a “slurve” that he can throw as contrast pitches. Like most knuckleballers, he’s not dominant, but he could be a steady option in the rotation if needed.