2008 Preview: Oakland Athletics

Surprisingly, the Oakland Athletics suffered a terrible second half in 2007, which saw them fall out of contention and perhaps signals that they need to enter a rebuilding phase. A series of injuries contributed to them finishing a disappointing 76-86, 18 games back of the Angels and just one game ahead of Texas. It was their worst win total since 1998, when they finished with just 74 victories (they’ve averaged nearly 92 wins per season since, 2007 included).

With this in mind, GM Billy Beane has announced that starters such as Joe Blanton and perhaps even Dan Haren could be available for the right price this offseason. Blanton could very well be dealt, but I’m not sure why Oakland would unload Haren, who is under contract for three more years for a mere $16.25M.

Offense

The Athletics scored 741 runs this year, ranking 11th in the AL. They could use some improvement here, and with many of their big contracts now gone, the A’s could sign someone significant. However, they could be entering a rebuilding phase, so we’ll have to see what Beane does this offseason. They need a left fielder and a middle infielder for when Crosby and Chavez hit the DL again this year.

C: Kurt Suzuki (.249/.327/.408 with 7 HR and 39 RBI in 213 AB; .280/.351/.365 in 211 AB in triple-A)
Suzuki has the potential to be above average offensively and defensively, but we’ll have to see how he responds to a full season as the starting catcher.

1B: Dan Johnson (.236/.349/.418 with 18 HR and 62 RBI in 416 AB)
Daric Barton (.347/.429/.639 with 4 HR in 72 AB; .293/.389/.438 with 9 HR and 70 RBI in 516 AB at triple-A)
Barton is very talented, and should provide a quality bat with above-average power for the A’s for several years.

2B: Mark Ellis (.276/.336/.441 with 33 2B and 76 RBI in 583 AB)
One of the underrated second basemen in the sport. League average at the plate and very good in the field, Ellis would be more known on a different team.

SS: Bobby Crosby (.226/.278/.341 with 8 HR and 31 RBI in 349 AB)
Since winning Rookie of the Year in 2004, injuries have hampered Crosby every season. If he can stay healthy, he will hit far better than in 2007.

3B: Eric Chavez (.240/.306/.446 with 15 HR and 46 RBI in 341 AB)
Chavez was injured again this year. He has been a mess at the plate for two seasons, but he’s capable of much more. I expect a bounceback year at the plate to go along with his good defense.

RF: Travis Buck (.288/.377/.474 with 7 HR and 34 RBI in 285 AB)
This 24-year old first-round pick in 2005 performed very well last season, and will be a valuable asset to the A’s if he can keep up that kind of production in his first full year.

CF: Nick Swisher (.262/.381/.455 with 22 HR and 78 RBI in 539 AB)
Swisher is one of the few power hitters on this squad, and his OBP makes up for his lack of batting average.

LF: Mark Kotsay (.214/.279/.296 with 14 2B and 20 RBI in 206 AB)
With so many outfielders out of the mix now, Kotsay is most likely to start the year in left field. It was only two years ago that he hit .

DH: Jack Cust (.256/.408/.504 with 26 HR and 82 RBI in 395 AB)
Cust was a minor league journeyman, and past prospect status at age 28. With Piazza injured most of the season, they gave him a shot, and he delivered with surprising power for such an average-sized player. He’s set as the A’s DH for 2008.

C: Jeremy Brown (.268/.367/.439 in 6 minor league seasons)
The overweight catcher of Moneyball fame, Brown will be 28 years old and provide insurance for Suzuki in 2008.

2B/SS: Donnie Murphy (.220/.290/.441 with 6 HR in 118 AB; .326/.388/.509 with 19 2B in 175 AB at triple-A)
Murphy’s advent allowed for the trade of Marco Scutaro. The 25-year old should see lots of playing time in this fragile infield.

OF: Chris Snelling (.350/.480/.350 in 20 AB; .311/.385/.472 in 9 minor league seasons)
Snelling is a very talented youngster, but hasn’t been able to stay healthy for long periods of time. The last time he reached even 400 AB in a year was 2001 with Seattle’s high-A affiliate. He will challenge Kotsay for playing time in left this year.

Oakland’s .256/.338/.407 team batting line reveals a need for punch in the lineup, and though Barry Bonds could be available for a song, Beane has already stated that his team has no interest; good for him. The A’s lineup isn’t impressive, but it isn’t without its bright spots for 2008. Oakland benefited from giving playing time to Cust, a career minor leaguer who broke out for a .256/.408/.504 performance with 26 HR and 82 RBI in limited playing time. They also have their next wave of young hitters up in catcher Kurt Suzuki, outfielder Travis Buck and first baseman Daric Barton. With the arrivals of Barton and Cust, Johnson is expected to be shopped this offseason.

Pitching

Oakland’s staff was about middle-of-the-pack in just about every category this season, not a good sign for a team that plays in a pretty extreme pitcher’s park. They did do an extremely good job at allowing the fewest HRs in the AL with just 138 surrendered.

Rotation: Rich Harden, Dan Haren, Joe Blanton, Chad Gaudin, Lenny DiNardo

If Harden could stay healthy, this would be a very solid rotation. Without him, however, you get 2007, when the rotation was 52-60 with a 4.29 ERA. Harden and Haren are a formidable 1-2 combination, but Blanton is entering his arbitration years, and is expected to be traded. Gaudin surprised a lot of people last season, but his control faltered down the stretch. DiNardo is nothing special, but good enough to be a #5 on this team. Beane would do well to pick up one starter this offseason to improve depth here. The emotional impact of the loss of starter Joe Kennedy this offseason is hard to gauge.

Bullpen: Alan Embree, Kiko Calero, Santiago Casilla, Justin Duchscherer, Andrew Brown, Ruddy Lugo

This bullpen is not nearly as talented as previous Athletics teams. Embree should not be setting up, let alone closing, and Calero is a borderline guy. Casilla is a valuable live arm, and Duchscherer is a very good arm if he can come back fully healthy. Brown and Lugo need to prove themselves at this level. Oakland desperately needs an upgrade, and Beane should be looking for a skilled veteran reliever this offseason.

Closer: Huston Street

Street is a top closer when he’s healthy. His 2007 performance doesn’t make us doubt him too much, but there are rumblings that he, too could be traded for the right package.

Defense

Led by Ellis on defense, the A’s are league average at almost every other position. Barton and Swisher are actually a little below average at their positions. Moneyball doesn’t put a lot of emphasis on defense, but the Athletics don’t hurt themselves too much in this category, either.

On the Farm

C: Landon Powell (.270/.363/.449 in 3 minor league seasons)
Got off to a slow start, but this 26-year old is pounding pitchers lately.

The Athletics don’t have many minor league players who are major league ready. Expect them to address this soon. Trading some players for prospects might be one option.