2007 Minor league XBH% leaders
As you know, I really like to look as XBH% as an indicator of Major League readiness in young hitters. Players who post a high OPS and XBH% (excluding those who are way too old for their league and those already with significant big league experience) tend to have breakout potential at the Major League level, as I have discussed here.
Here are last year’s leaders at the Triple-A level (cut-offs of .900 OPS and 40 XBH%):
Player Pos Team Age OPS XBH%
Mitch Jones OF LAD 29 1.099 60.7 Joe Dillon 3B MIL 31 1.010 49.5 Craig Brazell DH KCR 27 0.942 48.9 Val Pascucci 1B FLA 28 0.966 48.8 Delwyn Young OF LAD 25 0.955 46.1 John Lindsey 1B LAD 30 1.010 46.0 Matt Murton OF CHC 25 0.977 46.0 Brett Carroll OF FLA 24 0.958 46.0 Hiram Bocachica OF 2Af 31 0.967 45.8 Andy LaRoche 3B LAD 23 0.988 45.1 Scott Seabol 3B FLA 32 0.943 45.0 Jason Botts OF TEX 26 0.981 44.9 Ryan Raburn OF DET 26 0.934 44.6 Shelley Duncan OF NYY 27 0.957 44.4 Geovany Soto C CHC 24 1.076 44.1 Fred Lewis OF SFG 26 0.916 44.0 Adam Jones CF SEA 21 0.968 43.9 Nelson Cruz RF TEX 26 1.126 43.9 Jay Bruce OF CIN 20 0.925 43.9 Matt Kemp OF LAD 22 0.914 43.4 R Abercrombie OF FLA 26 0.945 43.0 Billy Butler LF KCR 21 0.954 40.7 Jason Lane RF HOU 30 0.939 40.7 Micah Hoffpauir 1B CHC 27 0.917 40.4
And now for Double-A (cut-offs of .900 OPS and 40 XBH%):
Player Pos Team Age OPS XBH%
Colby Rasmus CF STL 20 0.932 53.1 Brett Bonvechio 1B SDP 24 0.917 52.9 Adam Rosales 1B CIN 24 0.926 52.1 Ch Jimerson CF SEA 27 0.911 49.4 Joe Mather 1B STL 24 0.994 49.3 Michael Johnson 1B 2Af 27 0.916 47.9 Jed Lowrie SS BOS 23 0.911 46.0 Nolan Reimold OF BAL 23 0.93 45.6 Jeffrey Larish 1B DET 24 0.905 45.5 Steven Pearce 1B PIT 24 0.986 44.3 J Van Every OF CLE 27 0.999 44.2 Chase Headley 3B SDP 23 1.017 44.1 Greg Jacobs OF PHI 30 0.916 43.4 Justin Upton CF ARI 19 0.955 42.5 Mark Reynolds 3B ARI 23 0.931 41.5 Josh Whitesell 1B WSN 25 0.937 40.9
I would not consider anyone over 26 yo in Triple-A as a big bat prospect, and no one over 24 yo in Double-A. I have put potential sleepers in bold type above. Older players could still come up and contribute, but probably won’t become huge fantasy contributors this year. In summary, keep watching the guys in bold type near the tops of these lists. If they earn a starting job, they could be big pickups.
