I undertook the development of the Percentile Ranking System as a way of interpreting projection data. With so many projections out there, it helps you to compress a player’s expected performance down to one number, much like a dollar value. In testing out PRS in mock drafts, I’ve noticed some real weaknesses:
Dan Haren had a great 2007, one in which he won 15 games and dominated the league with a 3.07 ERA. He’s put up three straight seasons of making all his starts for Oakland, he’s moving to the weaker NL and he’s turning 27 this season, making him a prime breakout candidate, right? He finished with six dominant starts out of 34, ranking with the likes of Chris Young, James Shields and Matt Cain. That’s good company. Some stats guys are calling for him to lower his ERA by half a run in 2008. Half a run. Can we really expect that kind of improvement out of Haren?
I have to post about a new resource I just got turned on to over the weekend: Greg Rybarczyk’s Hit Tracker. It is a tool that will tell you about how far home runs really went, who hit more homers than they should have, and who underperformed based on weather, stadiums, and luck. You can watch video of every home run, see its path, and get info on wind, altitude, and true distance hit. Wow.
For a great example of how this data can be used in an analysis, read this great article by Chris Jaffe over at the Hardball Times. He explains why Brandon Phillips and David Wright are not really 30 HR guys, and why Gary Sheffield and Carlos Guillen will both probably hit more this year. Definitely worth a read.
Some news and injury concerns that you should be aware of heading into your draft:
The Mariners surprised everyone last season, going on a torrid summer run and winning 88 games. Looking at runs scored versus runs allowed, they outperformed their Pythagorean projection by an amazing 9-10 games. What that means is, the team was not really as talented as their record might suggest. Given that, it will be hard for the M’s to match last year’s win total, let alone crack the playoffs.
Josh Kalk is my hero. I have to post about this, because I haven’t seen this kind of database before. Check out the player pages for pitchers and hitters. Some very cool stuff for analysis, including:
Pitchers
Check out the Johan Santana page.
Hitters
Currently not working, but I can’t wait to see what goodies will be here!
You’re prepared for your draft. You should already know how many players will be drafted in total, and your pick numbers for the whole draft. Everyone should have a 1-2 page cheat sheet with ranked players by position, plus a few extra sleepers on there. And if you take the time, you can include ADP on there using this excellent tool from Fantasy Gameday. Ideally, you should come up with the guy you WANT to draft, and if he’s still more than 2 rounds early, you should move on to your next pick and come back next round. But in the heat of the draft, sometimes it’s stressful checking all the numbers at each position.
In order to simplify things, I went and made up a draft sheet (based on ADP) so I know what guys are typically going in which round. Be aware that your particular draft will NOT go in this exact order, so don’t count on a guy being there just because the sheet says so. Rather, it’s prudent to look ahead one round, and mark which guys you think are very good bargains there. Then snap them up the round before, it’s easy.
Here’s my printable ADP bargain sheet for 2008 (first 15 rounds):
I’ve shaded my bargain picks gray in each round, and the extreme bargains in darker gray. You should make up your own sheet that fits your league, and make your own picks. Enjoy.
I got the inspiration for this post from Marc Normandin at Baseball Prospectus, so kudos to him for the idea.
One of the things PECOTA provides in their player forecasts is the chances of a player breaking out, improving, collapsing or ending his career. You can get some ideas for deep picks late in drafts using this data. Sorting the 2008 PECOTA forecast for breakout and improvement percentage, you see a couple of interesting names pop up.
Akinori Iwamura, 2B (breakout: 94% improve: 95%)
So the guys at BP basically think there’s no way Iwamura does as badly as he did last season. But .285/.359/.411 is not a bad line at all for a second baseman. It must be the 32 RBI in 491 AB that does him in. If Iwamura plays a whole season and takes advantage of his speed, he could make for an interesting pick to play 2B, and he has 3B eligibility. The Rays’ offense should be a bit better this year, too, which could also help his value.
Cameron Maybin, OF (breakout: 60% improve:91%)
Though the weighted mean forecast for Maybin is not pretty, it doesn’t mean that he can’t come in an pull a Hunter Pence from 2007 performance. I’m not saying draft the guy, but if he does well in Spring Training and earns a job, you might want to pick him up if your team needs an outfielder.
Elvis Andrus, SS (breakout: 60% improve: 84%)
Here’s a guy to keep in mind if Michael Young sustains a serious injury. I don’t see him getting much playing time this year, but if his situation changes via a trade or something, you should have him on a watch list. At shallower positions, this can make all the difference for your fantasy team.
Justin Upton, OF (breakout: 56% improve: 76%)
Upton will be a perennial All-Star, but it probably won’t start this year. But then again, it could. Just keep an eye out, and if he starts out torrid, don’t be afraid to click “Add Player”.
Jesus Flores, C (breakout: 54% improve: 77%)
Yeah, that catcher position is real tricky. But it can be a little nicer if you have a potential breakout catcher with good power in mind. With Paul Lo Duca’s balky knee, there’s a chance that Flores could get called up to contribute this year. Jesus could be your savior if you accept him first.
Neil Walker, 3B (breakout: 52% improve: 73%)
Before you dismiss the numbers, consider that this guy has played his way to Triple-A at the age of 21. There aren’t a lot of players who can claim that, and the Pirates have a need for hitting. So if he starts tearing it up at Indianapolis, there’s a chance you’ll see him by mid-season.
J.P. Howell, SP (breakout: 55% improve: 81%)
Howell is a lot more talented than that 7.59 ERA might lead you to believe (how can he NOT improve on that???). And I’m not the only one who’s telling you this. The guy knows how to throw a baseball, and he’s not even 25 yet. The problem is something else, possibly just bad luck.
Octavio Dotel, RP (breakout: 54% improve: 87%)
Look for the ChiSox to use him liberally this season, as their bullpen is still pretty sketchy, though much better than last year. Jenks is entrenched as the closer, but if he gets hurt or falters, Dotel is next in line. Hey, it’s happened before to the White Sox.
The Toronto Blue Jays in 2007 were basically decimated by injuries. Reed Johnson, John Thomson and Brandon League were all on the 60-day DL on Opening Day. Their closer, B.J. Ryan, blew out his elbow from the get-go and was lost for the season. Troy Glaus struggled with bone spurs and foot pain much of the year. Gustavo Chacin hit the 60-day DL, and Vernon Wells ended the year with season-ending shoulder surgery. Yeesh. Still, they finished 83-79 on the year, and several young players benefited from the playing time afforded them because of these injuries.
GM J.P. Ricciardi has had a very inactive offseason, basically picking up David Eckstein, trading Troy Glaus straight up for Scott Rolen and then signing Rod Barajas as a backup catcher. But look at our review below and you’ll see why he didn’t feel a need to gut the team just yet. Some people forget that the Blue Jays actually beat out the Red Sox in 2006, and it’ll be a tight three team race again in 2008. Any number of small factors could give Toronto the edge it needs to finish second this year.
Offense
Toronto struggled somewhat to put runs up on the board, finishing 10th in the AL with 753 runs scored. Much of that was due to the toll injuries took on some of the biggest boppers in the lineup, Vernon Wells and Troy Glaus. A down year by Lyle Overbay and the hitting of defensive whiz John McDonald, in particular, really hurt the lineup as well. This was an offense that scored 809 runs just the year before, so they will be quite a bit stronger in 2008.
C: Gregg Zaun (.242/.341/.411 with 10 HR and 52 RBI in 331 AB)
Rod Barajas (.230/.352/.393 with 4 HR and 10 RBI in 122 AB with the Phillies)
Not a bad catching tandem, if not the youngest pair around. Zaun will be 37 this season, so Barajas is kind of an insurance policy, and should get significant playing time, especially against right-handed pitching.
1B: Lyle Overbay (.240/.315/.391 with 10 HR and 49 RBI in 425 AB)
Some nagging injuries and a .273 BABIP led to a terribly disappointing season for Overbay, who in my opinion is generally an underrated player. He is just 31, and his peripheral trends don’t show any warning signs, so I fully expect him to bounce back towards his career norms.
2B: Aaron Hill (.291/.333/.459 with 17 HR and 78 RBI in 608 AB)
The Red Sox’ Pedroia got all the attention, but there’s a pretty good young second baseman in Toronto too. Hill isn’t bad with the stick and can play solid defense, so he should hold down this job for a couple more years at least. He’s got good gap power, evidenced by his 47 doubles last year.
SS: David Eckstein (.309/.356/.382 with 3 HR and 31 RBI in 434 AB with St. Louis)
John McDonald (.251/.279/.333 with 1 HR and 31 RBI in 327 AB)
Eckstein did have a .309 average last season, but that was about as empty an average as you will find anywhere. His XBH% of 19.40% and 5.2% walk rate leave a lot to be desired. Still, he should be able to hit in the .270-.280 range back in the AL. Hopefully he’s still up to the task defensively at age 33. McDonald is a great utility player to have, but he should not be getting 300 AB ever again.
3B: Scott Rolen (.265/.331/.398 with 8 HR and 58 RBI in 392 AB with St. Louis)
It’s hard to believe that Rolen is not even 33 yet. He’s played for so long, and been injured so much that he seems much older. Toronto is banking that his poor performance was not all decline, but that his discontent with Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa was really dragging him down. He’ll have a chance to prove himself to the fans in Toronto, and I think he’ll come back to be a little better than league average in 2008.
RF: Alex Rios (.297/.354/.498 with 24 HR, 85 RBI and 17 SB in 643 AB)
Rios continued to build on his breakout 2006, showing a good blend of power and speed which makes him one of the best young right fielders in the AL. Will be a key player for the Jays going forward.
CF: Vernon Wells (.245/.304/.402 with 16 HR and 80 RBI in 584 AB)
Wells tried to play through a separated shoulder, and had a disastrous year. He’s since had surgery, and hopefully will be able to come back and return to his normal offensive output.
LF: Reed Johnson (.236/.305/.320 with 2 HR and 14 RBI in 275 AB)
Matt Stairs (.289/.368/.549 with 21 HR and 64 RBI in 357 AB)
Adam Lind (.238/.278/.400 with 11 HR and 46 RBI in 290 AB)
The Jays should just commit to Lind or trade him; it’s not doing him any good sitting on the bench. Johnson doesn’t seem like a long-term solution, and Stairs may see 30-40 games of action in left against right-handed pitching; that doesn’t leave much playing time for Lind, who could actually be good.
DH: Frank Thomas (.277/.377/.480 with 26 HR and 95 RBI in 531 AB)
Thomas reached 500 AB in a season for the first time since 2003, and everyone else on the team got injured. That’s irony for you. He’s still a plus DH and a real hassle for pitchers in the middle of this order.
I don’t think offense should be a problem this year, unless the injuries pile up again this year. They will be the third best lineup in the AL East.
Pitching
Toronto’s staff was 2nd in runs allowed last season, with a very strong 4.00 team ERA. The Rogers Centre had a park factor of 0.944 in 2007, but that still suggests a pretty good pitching staff.
Rotation: Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Dustin McGowan, Gustavo Chacin, Shaun Marcum, Jesse Litsch
All the hype this offseason has been about McGowan, who should improve in strides this year, but I really like what Burnett did last season. He finally looks healthy again, and is actually using his killer stuff to good effect; pitching, not throwing. This rotation is very solid, and has good depth. The injured Chacin will be making his way back into the rotation this year.
Bullpen: Jeremy Accardo, Scott Downs, Casey Janssen, Jason Frasor, Brian Tallet, Brandon League
This group performed extremely well last year, but didn’t get much recognition for it. Accardo stepped in to fill the void at closer and there are plenty of live arms that should post solid years again in 2008. The ERA will likely regress, but these guys are quality arms.
Closer: B.J. Ryan
If Ryan comes back healthy, and all indications are that he is, this will be one strong bullpen. Ryan has made a very speedy recovery from elbow surgery, and has reported to spring training.
Defense
The Jays improved their defense at third base by getting Rolen, and the infield is pretty strong with the exception of Eckstein. Zaun and Barajas should be about average at catcher. Wells and Rios stabilize a very capable outfield. Overall, a team strength.
On the Farm
Most of the Jays’ best prospects are still in the low levels of the minors. There’s little chance you’d see their top guy, Travis Snider, this year, especially since he plays in the outfield.
C: Curtis Thigpen (.280/.370/.427 in 4 minor league seasons)
Thigpen is almost ready to replace Zaun, and may have to if one of the veterans falter in 2008. He hit .238/.294/.287 in 101 Major League ABs last year, and will start the year at Triple-A.
C: Robinzon Diaz (.305/.341/.388 in 6 minor league seasons)
Consider him as an insurance policy for Thigpen. The 24-year old Diaz has always been able to hit, and has been adding some pop to his game the past couple of years. Will probably start at Double-A, but could see some time later on.
After trading away Johan Santana and Matt Garza, and losing Carlos Silva to free agency, the Minnesota Twins freed up quite a bit of funds while being left with a promising but extremely young and inexperienced starting rotation. These guys could be pretty good – eventually. But for 2008, they needed someone to step in and lead this staff. The answer has arrived, and his name is Livan Hernandez.
Hernandez will make a base salary of $5M, and incentives could push that up to the $7M range. He is best known for his durability, having reached the 200 IP plateau for 8 straight seasons, and 9 of his last 10 seasons (he just missed in 2004, with 199 2/3 IP). A two-time All-Star in 2004 and 2005, Hernandez has been mostly below average since then. Still, he is a very good fit for a team in dire need of veteran pitching. This will be Hernandez’ first season in the AL, so that will bear some watching.
I don’t expect Hernandez to have any significant fantasy value, though he should easily rack up 11-12 wins.
