Here are the top 10 first basemen, using my stat-based PRS evaluation method. Keep in mind, this metric uses the CHONE 2008 v2 projections, so the results are highly dependent on those numbers.
- Albert Pujols
- Prince Fielder
- David Ortiz
- Mark Teixeira
- Ryan Howard
- Lance Berkman
- Carlos Guillen
- Derrek Lee
- Todd Helton
- Justin Morneau
I think this order is fairly reasonable. For those who are concerned about Pujols’ elbow, you might downgrade him slightly, but he did manage to hit .327-99-32-103-2 even with the injury last year, and he’s had an offseason to rest. Lots of people are predicting that he’ll have a monster year just to spite the doubters. I think Howard is 5th through no fault of his own: look at the numbers for Teixeira after the trade, and you’ll see what I mean. It’s nice to see Helton still cracking the top 10, and Morneau could easily move up this list.
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February 2, 2008 at 4:47 pm
RK
carlos pena’s absence is suspiscious.
February 4, 2008 at 2:55 pm
redsoxtalk
Dunno if “suspicious” is the right word; I know a lot of people are high on Pena this year, but my gut tells me he’s hopelessly overrated if you look at last year’s numbers alone. He shows up as the 14th best 1B using the CHONE numbers. I think that has more to do with his 2008 projection than anything else. CHONE has him at .254-90-31-86-2.
That BA and relatively low RBI total at that position is tough. Still has great power, I won’t argue with you there.
BTW, I just got the PECOTA 2008 weighted mean projections, so I’ll run those soon as well to get a comparison.