Quick, don’t think. Who would you rather draft?

Player 1 (30-year old veteran with 9 full years of experience)
Previous season: 11-12, 184 K in 202.2 IP, 4.84 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP
Lifetime: 100-105, 4.34 ERA and 1.27 WHIP

Player 2 (21-year old phenom with 1 full year)
Previous season: 12-14, 176 K in 191 IP, 4.52 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP
Lifetime: 16-18, 3.96 ERA and 1.23 WHIP

Player 1 had an average draft position (ADP) of 177.9 in Yahoo! fantasy leagues last year and 180.6 at ESPN Fantasy Baseball, meaning he was going late in the 15th round. Player 2 was taken MUCH earlier, with an ADP of 88.8 at Yahoo! and 88.0 at ESPN (approximately the 7th round). These were the numbers back at the beginning of the 2007 season. How did they do?

Player 1 went on to go 15-8 with 213 Ks, a 3.74 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Player 2 also did very well, posting a 14-7 record, 165 Ks, a 3.92 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. The edge actually goes to Player 1 in every category.

Player number 1 is Javier Vazquez. Vazquez was an All-Star in 2004 with the New York Yankees, but hasn’t gotten much attention despite his rock-solid performances year in and year out. Despite posting 15 wins last year, averaging 32 starts and 12.6 wins over the past eight seasons, and very healthy lifetime stats of 7.92 K/9, 4.28 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, he will still be available after guys like player 2 this year. Player 2, if you haven’t guessed yet, is Felix Hernandez.

Of course, I have chosen these players to illustrate an important point. Solid veterans tend to be undervalued, and hot prospects are overvalued. Don’t get me wrong, King Felix deserves to be a breakout pick, and he will be a great starter in 2008, but the guy who waited a few rounds to get Vazquez got to start Dan Uggla (ADP 91.5) at second base instead of Marcus Giles (ADP 175.0), and that makes a huge fantasy impact on your team.