I won’t reprint the whole report, but you can get take a gander at early average draft position results at Mock Draft Central (a great site, apart from the color scheme). As usual, people are putting a lot of weight on last year’s numbers, which is not always the smart thing to do. Here are some of the more interesting things I can see so far:
Undervalued
Albert Pujols, 1B (6.13 ADP). Everyone’s worried about last year’s drop-off and the reports about the elbow. Don’t be.
Matt Holliday, OF (6.61 ADP). Sure, most of his numbers are due to Coors Field. But they are great numbers. Roto leagues don’t adjust for park effects, so I have him as a top 5 pick.
David Ortiz, 1B (18.00 ADP). What’s a guy gotta do to get noticed around here? Ortiz only led all of baseball in 2007 with 88 XBH despite a bum knee, which has been surgically repaired, BTW. He’s a top 10 pick in my book.
Vladimir Guerrero, OF (21.06 ADP). Why go away from a guy who averaged .324-92-31-116-10 the past 3 seasons? He’s worthy of at least a late 1st round or early 2nd round pick.
Chipper Jones, 3B (64.39 ADP). Okay, if defense counted, you could scoff. But what is scoffable about .337-108-29-102-5 last year and .324-87-26-86-6 the year before that? The old man can flat-out hit, don’t underestimate him.
Scott Kazmir, SP (65.97 ADP). Okay, he plays for the Rays. But they are much improved, and will surprise a lot of people in Baltimore this year. And Kaz only won 13 games and led the AL in strikeouts last year with 239. Can you say breakout year?
Roy Oswalt, SP (74.95 ADP). Remember him? All-Star the past three years, averaging 16 wins since 2005 and owner of a LIFETIME 3.07 ERA and 1.20 WHIP? He could easily go 20 picks higher.
Overvalued
Jose Reyes, SS (3.70 ADP). Everyone’s concerned about getting a premium shortstop. Sure, he’s just 24 and those steals are really valuable. But is he REALLY worth picking ahead of David Wright and Matt Holliday?
Jimmy Rollins, SS (6.30 ADP). Great fantasy shortstop with contributions in all five cats, but there are other guys who can help you a bit more this early. If he slips into the 2nd round, grab him right away.
Carl Crawford, OF (12.68 ADP). Crawford doesn’t look like he’ll develop the power that a lot of people predicted, and he needs to score a lot more runs to be worth this high of a pick. I’ve learned my lesson. All your steals don’t have to come from one source.
Brandon Phillips, 2B (20.76 ADP). Phillips had a great 2007, but if you’re banking on him to repeat that performance, you’re likely to be disappointed. I think he’s more of a 4th or 5th rounder than a 2nd round pick.
Ichiro Suzuki, OF (22.06 ADP). Some analysts are predicting a major slide in 2008 fantasy value for this batting average wizard. With his power declining and the lineup looking the way it does in Seattle, I can’t say I disagree.
B.J. Upton, 2B/OF (23.76 ADP). People are really reaching at 2B, which looks pretty thin after Chase Utley. I have to admit, those numbers look just phenomenal. But Upton is a big reach with an abnormally high BABIP from last season. I have him going about 4 rounds later than this.
Victor Martinez, C/1B (28.72 ADP). VMart is one of the best catching options out there, but why draft him here, when you could get more runs, HR, and RBI from Aramis Ramirez?
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February 13, 2008 at 7:53 pm
Average Draft Position: Best bang for the pick « FantasyScope Baseball
[...] Draft Position: Best bang for the pick Seeing as my previous post is generating a lot of interest, I thought I’d go back and quantify player value, and compare [...]
March 25, 2008 at 12:17 pm
Matt Mullen
I think you’re dead wrong about not reaching for Victor Martinez. If you think about the numbers the other catchers will put up, drafting him is like padding your stats with 40RBIs, 30Runs, 15HRs and a boost in average also. You can always find another 3B like Mike Lowell later on to make up the difference on your suggestion of Aramis Ramirez or just be a hawk on the waiver wire. But you won’t find a catcher who can contribute close to VMart’s numbers and that’s an advantage worth reaching for.
March 25, 2008 at 1:02 pm
redsoxtalk
Matt, what you’re talking about is the issue of position scarcity, and of course there is real value to drafting a catcher early; however, I think early 3rd round is too early, even for VMart. Also, I think you’re underestimating the difference between Aramis and Mike Lowell.
Martinez is projected at .293-75-18-86-2 by PECOTA, while Ramirez is at .301-85-28-103-3. Assuming you land an average catcher out of the top 12, you’re looking at .292-65-15-73-3 (based on 2006-2007 data). Lowell is at .285-66-14-79-4. Based on that, I’d say that you still have an advantage by drafting Ramirez over Victor at this stage in the draft.