I got the inspiration for this post from Marc Normandin at Baseball Prospectus, so kudos to him for the idea.

One of the things PECOTA provides in their player forecasts is the chances of a player breaking out, improving, collapsing or ending his career. You can get some ideas for deep picks late in drafts using this data. Sorting the 2008 PECOTA forecast for breakout and improvement percentage, you see a couple of interesting names pop up.

Akinori Iwamura, 2B (breakout: 94% improve: 95%)
So the guys at BP basically think there’s no way Iwamura does as badly as he did last season. But .285/.359/.411 is not a bad line at all for a second baseman. It must be the 32 RBI in 491 AB that does him in. If Iwamura plays a whole season and takes advantage of his speed, he could make for an interesting pick to play 2B, and he has 3B eligibility. The Rays’ offense should be a bit better this year, too, which could also help his value.

Cameron Maybin, OF (breakout: 60% improve:91%)
Though the weighted mean forecast for Maybin is not pretty, it doesn’t mean that he can’t come in an pull a Hunter Pence from 2007 performance. I’m not saying draft the guy, but if he does well in Spring Training and earns a job, you might want to pick him up if your team needs an outfielder.

Elvis Andrus, SS (breakout: 60% improve: 84%)
Here’s a guy to keep in mind if Michael Young sustains a serious injury. I don’t see him getting much playing time this year, but if his situation changes via a trade or something, you should have him on a watch list. At shallower positions, this can make all the difference for your fantasy team.

Justin Upton, OF (breakout: 56% improve: 76%)
Upton will be a perennial All-Star, but it probably won’t start this year. But then again, it could. Just keep an eye out, and if he starts out torrid, don’t be afraid to click “Add Player”.

Jesus Flores, C (breakout: 54% improve: 77%)
Yeah, that catcher position is real tricky. But it can be a little nicer if you have a potential breakout catcher with good power in mind. With Paul Lo Duca’s balky knee, there’s a chance that Flores could get called up to contribute this year. Jesus could be your savior if you accept him first.

Neil Walker, 3B (breakout: 52% improve: 73%)
Before you dismiss the numbers, consider that this guy has played his way to Triple-A at the age of 21. There aren’t a lot of players who can claim that, and the Pirates have a need for hitting. So if he starts tearing it up at Indianapolis, there’s a chance you’ll see him by mid-season.

J.P. Howell, SP (breakout: 55% improve: 81%)
Howell is a lot more talented than that 7.59 ERA might lead you to believe (how can he NOT improve on that???). And I’m not the only one who’s telling you this. The guy knows how to throw a baseball, and he’s not even 25 yet. The problem is something else, possibly just bad luck.

Octavio Dotel, RP (breakout: 54% improve: 87%)
Look for the ChiSox to use him liberally this season, as their bullpen is still pretty sketchy, though much better than last year. Jenks is entrenched as the closer, but if he gets hurt or falters, Dotel is next in line. Hey, it’s happened before to the White Sox.