2008 Preview: Seattle Mariners

The Mariners surprised everyone last season, going on a torrid summer run and winning 88 games. Looking at runs scored versus runs allowed, they outperformed their Pythagorean projection by an amazing 9-10 games. What that means is, the team was not really as talented as their record might suggest. Given that, it will be hard for the M’s to match last year’s win total, let alone crack the playoffs.

The Mariners’ strong season prompted management to go out and land Erik Bedard this offseason in a bid to really get competitive for the next few years, but I’m afraid they’re still a little short of the Angels, who added Torii Hunter (and even more pitching) this offseason. But the AL West is anything but a foregone conclusion; lest we forget, the Athletics have a young and talented team which could surprise people this year too. But let’s get back to Seattle. For them to really contend, everyone needs to stay healthy and at least one starter besides Bedard and King Felix needs to really step it up. They need a big year from Sexson and Ibanez, and they also need at least one bullpen arm to step up and replace George Sherrill.

Offense

Seattle was about league-average on offense, scoring 794 runs and hitting .287/.337/.425 as a team. This is an aggressive, contact lineup which took only 389 walks (13th in the AL), yet struck out only 861 times (14th in the AL). Blame Ichiro Suzuki for that team approach at the plate. The offense is anchored by Suzuki, Beltre and Ibanez, but they need a bounceback year from Sexson if they want to have a chance at it all this year. Run production has been remarkably balanced from this lineup, and lots of guys had 60 RBI last year. The problem is, it’s not enough.

C: Kenji Johjima (.287/.322/.433 with 14 HR and 61 RBI in 485 AB)
Johjima has been sure and steady behind the plate, and he’s plenty valuable for a catcher. With prospect Jeff Clement knocking on the door, this contract season will probably be his last in Seattle.

1B: Richie Sexson (.205/.295/.399 with 21 HR and 63 RBI in 434 AB)
Sexson’s offensive collapse in 2007 was, well… offensive. How he responds this season will be a key to whether the M’s can produce enough runs or not. If he can’t bring it back, Wilkerson could see time here.

2B: Jose Lopez (.252/.284/.355 with 11 HR ans 62 RBI in 524 AB)
The young Lopez is a little better than he showed last year at the plate, but not much. If he’s not getting on base, he needs to find other ways to contribute in this lineup, with speed and “peskiness” (read: take/foul off a lot of pitches).

SS: Yuniesky Betancourt (.289/.308/.418 with 9 HR and 67 RBI in 536 AB)
This is a very good defensive middle infield, and Betancourt can hit a little bit (he slapped 38 doubles last year). He’s fine to keep around as long as he’s a minimal salary player.

3B: Adrian Beltre (.276/.319/.482 with 26 HR and 99 RBI in 595 AB)
Beltre has been very solid for the M’s, and is one of those guys who could have a monster season without warning. But he’ll most likely repeat what he’s been doing every year in Seattle.

RF: Brad Wilkerson (.234/.319/.467 with 20 HR and 62 RBI in 338 AB with the Texas Rangers)
Wladimir Balentien (.291/.362/.509 with 24 HR and 84 RBI in 477 AB at Triple-A)
Wilkerson needs to get his BA up around .250 and his OBP up to about .350 to be valuable. He will be counted on to contribute early, and if not, Balentien will get this job.

CF: Ichiro Suzuki (.351/.396/.431 with 6 HR, 68 RBI and 37 SB in 678 AB)
Ichiro had another great season, and provides the driving force for this lineup. The problem is seasons where he hits closer to .300 than .350; his OBP tanks to about .350, and that costs the team runs.

LF: Raul Ibanez (.291/.351/.480 with 21 HR and 105 RBI in 573 AB)
Ibanez is not talked about enough, but he is a key to this lineup. He is the most dependable hitter in the middle part of this lineup.

DH: Jose Vidro (.314/.381/.394 with 6 HR and 59 RBI in 548 AB)
Big contract, average DH. That tends to be the story at the end of multi-year deals. He had a good average and OBP last year, but you really want to get more power out of your DH than Vidro is capable of at this point.

This is a lineup that is driven by contact and batting average. That means they must rely on luck to some extent, and are at a disadvantage when facing good defensive teams. They really need to work with their younger hitters on being more patient and working the count. Sometimes there’s value in striking out looking if you force the pitcher to throw you six pitches, especially if you’re incapable of much else at the plate.

Pitching

The Mariners’ staff finished 10th in the AL last year, with 813 runs scored on them (an average of 5.09 R/G). They really needed improvement from their starting rotation, thus the Bedard trade. While Bedard is a slight injury risk, they need about 200 IP from him, Hernandez and one other starter to compete in 2008.

Rotation: Erik Bedard, Felix Hernandez, Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, Carlos Silva

Despite having a top pair of aces, the Mariners don’t have the pitching talent to really go deep in 2008. Yes, they have some experience in this rotation, but I’m not sold on Washburn, Batista or Silva as a #3. At least they have plenty of insurance for injuries, with Horacio Ramirez and Ryan Feierabend around.

Bullpen: Sean Green, Brandon Morrow, Eric O’Flaherty, Ryan Rowland-Smith

The bullpen was very good for the M’s last season, primarily due to the contribution of one George Sherrill, now with the Orioles as part of the Bedard trade. These guys are pretty capable and should comprise a solid bullpen.

Closer: J.J. Putz (6-1 with 40 SV, a 1.38 ERA and 82 K in 71 2/3 IP)

Putz has been one of the most dominant closers the past two seasons, and that doesn’t look to change any time soon.

Defense

The Mariners run a very tight defensive ship. They are strong all the way up the middle, and Beltre plays a pretty mean third base. Ibanez will be passable in left, and Wilkerson is a plus defender in right. I think they should have moved Ichiro back to right field this year. He’s good in center, but just amazing in right.

On the Farm

C: Jeff Clement (.276/.360/.459 in 3 minor league seasons)
Seattle has a valuable catcher who can hit and play defense. You will see Clement up this year, probably to stay.

SP: Ryan Feierabend (25-21 with a 3.89 ERA and 6.61 K/9 in 5 minor league seasons)
Feierabend tasted the Majors last season at just 21 years old. As a left-handed starter, you can probably expect him to be ready by September.