Don’t we all? Steals is one of those tricky categories, because just a few players are responsible for the lion’s share of stolen bases in baseball. For example, of the 2,799 bases stolen in 2008, 467 of those (or 16.7%) were by the same ten players. Expand that to twenty players, and they pilfered 784 bases, or 28.0%. Every fantasy buff knows that that can make for some slim pickins come draft day. Here are a couple of suggestions on who to get and who to avoid this year (projected 2009 steals in parentheses).

Green Light

These are the few players who could steal 30 bags and do enough in all five categories that they can REALLY benefit your team. These guys are early to mid-rounders in every draft, so if they fall to you, just grab ‘em. No thinking required.

  1. Jose Reyes, SS (66)
  2. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF (49)
  3. Hanley Ramirez, SS (47)
  4. Brian Roberts, 2B (44)
  5. Carl Crawford, OF (44)
  6. Jimmy Rollins, SS (42)
  7. Ichiro Suzuki, OF (42)
  8. B.J. Upton, OF (41)
  9. Grady Sizemore, OF (33)

Yellow Light

No team will have more than a couple of these premium guys, so we need to get to know other speedsters who could top 25 bags but will go later in the draft. These players are very ownable in mixed leagues, but they also have drawbacks that you should consider in building your squad.

  1. Juan Pierre (55)*
  2. Chone Figgins (45)
  3. Felipe Lopez (27)
  4. Shane Victorino (26)
  5. Ryan Theriot (25)

* Provided he gets traded somewhere where he’ll play regularly

Lopez and Theriot make this list because they play 2B, which is pretty shallow.

Red Light

I would avoid drafting these guys except maybe wiht my last pick as a speculative move. They’ll steal bases, sure, but if you play them, they will hurt you in enough other categories that it will likely be counterproductive for your team.

  1. Willy Taveras (48)
  2. Carlos Gomez (37)
  3. Michael Bourn (36)
  4. Rajai Davis (35)
  5. Corey Patterson (32)
  6. Dave Roberts (30)
  7. Eugenio Velez (25)

Taveras is borderline ownable, but I think a lot of value was lost when Taveras left Colorado. Cincinnati is a good hitter’s park, but it’s no Coors Field. Gomez is also not bad as a desperation move, and he could always have that breakout season; he’s certainly talented enough.