Chad Billingsley had an excellent 2008, posting 16 wins with 201 strikeouts and a 3.14 ERA in 200.1 innings. In just his age 23 season, and his first as a full-time starter, he showed the ability to dominate and really anchor a pitching staff. As a very good pitcher in a very good pitcher’s home park, he’s an exciting fantasy player.

Billingsley suffered a foot fracture this offseason, which cast some doubt on his playing time in 2009, but the Disabled List Informer tells us that Bills is recovering nicely, and we shouldn’t expect him to miss any time.

I expect Billingsley to regress a bit, mainly in home runs allowed, and he is a candidate to experience the Verducci effect, boosting his innings pitched by over 50 IP last year. He has never put that many miles on his arm before, but his second half splits from 2008 don’t signal any sort of decline (7-2 with a 2.99 ERA). Still, it’s better for any projections to be somewhat conservative:

182.1 IP, 12 wins, 173 K, 4.01 ERA, 1.37 WHIP

At these performance levels, I have Bills ranked as the 33rd best SP and the 93rd overall pick. He does walk a lot of hitters, but as he continues to gain experience his WHIP should probably edge downwards. Keep in mind that if he approaches last year’s numbers, he will be worth quite a bit more. He should be a safe bet with some upside by the 8th or 9th round.