Over-Under: Shane Victorino and Carlos Guillen

Overrated

Shane Victorino is that rare speedster who can also hit for some average, making him a much better source of steals than say, Willy Taveras. With an ADP of 56.1, people are happily taking him as a mid-5th rounder in most fantasy drafts. By my measure, however, that’s too steep a price to pay for a .289-92-12-55-29 performer. The hit you’ll take in the HR and RBI categories if you draft him as a regular makes him more of a 9th round pick in my book. A much better pick also going in the 5th round: Jacoby Ellsbury of the Red Sox, who will likely hit for a little more average and could swipe 15-20 more bags.

2009 fPAR rankings

You asked for it.. And now after tweaking the points above replacement factors, I’ve completed the fPAR player rankings for 2009. Not only do we give you a ranked list, but also a point value for each player, so you can group them into tiers and maximize value.

2009 Sleepers: Valuable when they play

There are many players who have very little draft value because they are expected to miss significant time with injuries or they are going to stay in the minor leagues to delay their arbitration clocks. Still, when they do see duty, they can give your team quite the boost. Here are some of those players for this year:

2009 Profile: Chad Cordero

The Seattle Mariners have inked closer Chad Cordero to a minor league deal. Cordero has a lot of saves already, but overuse has led to some severe shoulder problems. This could be the end of the line for him, or he could bounce back and be an effective reliever; Cordero will be just 27 this season.

2009 FantasyScope official projections are here!

For all of you who were repeatedly clicking the “refresh” button for the past month and a half, the day has finally come. All the tweaking, adjusting and fine-tuning is finished, and I present to you the final FantasyScope 2009 projections. 545 hitters, 645 pitchers are included, encompassing both established players and fringe minor leaguers. I have made playing time adjustments for Spring injuries to major players (Alex Rodriguez) as well as recent signings (Chad Cordero).

Draft Strategy: Positional scarcity in context

Should you pay more for a catcher who hits 20 HR than a first baseman who hits 25 HR? Sure. How much more is the question. You’ll find all kinds of fantasy advice out there, from “get Joe Mauer in the 3rd round” to “punt catchers altogether”. My take? Know the positional premiums you gotta pay, based on who’s available. Let me explain…

fPAR-FS: Fantasy top 50 players for 2009

With the recent injury announcement about A-Rod, how do we handle the first few rounds of the draft? Here’s what fPAR has to say about that (using our FantasyScope projections):

Over-Under: Carlos Quentin and Matt Holliday

Overrated

Did Carlos Quentin have a ridiculous 2008? Yes. Did he finish 5th in AL MVP voting? Yes. Would he have hit 40 HR if he hadn’t missed a month with that injury? Probably. Is he worth the 27th pick in the draft? No.

fPAR-PECOTA and fPAR-CHONE for 2009

I’ve put fPAR player rankings online now for both popular projection systems:

fPAR using PECOTA projections

fPAR using CHONE projections

Some very interesting results for both. Especially who’s ranked number one overall by PECOTA. I think that’s due to the overall conservativeness of PECOTA when it comes to HRs.

Enjoy as you enter your fantasy drafts!

fPAR-FS: Top 40 RP for 2009

Alright, here we go: