Over-Under: Matt Cain and Justin Verlander

This time we profile two well-known pitchers and break down why we think they’re over- and underrated, respectively.

Overrrated

Everyone’s been expecting that breakout season from Matt Cain for years now, and with a 3-1 record and sparkling 2.61 ERA, you may be thinking that you’ve found fantasy gold with him this year. Not so, and here’s why:

Cain’s performance belies his 6.63 K/9 and 4.50 BB/9 rates, his worst K/BB ratio since he came up in 2005. Dig a little deeper and you’ll see that his numbers are teetering perilously on a .254 BABIP against and a ridiculous 90.9% strand rate, both of which are unsustainable. Combine that with his lost velocity on his fastball (avg 91.5 mph compared to his career 92.9 mph) and you’ve got a recipe for disaster. Cain’s fastball is quite a bit more hittable than in past seasons, and he’s throwing it less to compensate. That means more breaking pitches and more walks; once that BABIP and strand rate correct themselves, you’re looking at a far worse pitcher. His first pitch strike rate is down, opponents’ contact rate is up, and his HR/FB ratio is actually a high for his career. That’s all you need to know; dump Cain fast on some unsuspecting schmo who need pitching.

Underrated

Almost a polar opposite this year, Justin Verlander is 2-2 with a 5.66 ERA, but he’s done little to deserve that mark, if his peripherals have anything to say about it. With a 11.07 K/9 rate, he’s boasting a K/BB ratio of 3.75, a career high. This may actually be indicative of a breakout season for Verlander. The problem so far has been a .381 BABIP against, thanks to bad luck and some bad defense on his teammates’ part. His strand rate has been unbelievably terrible at 54.6%, far below his career 71.1% rate.

Unlike his counterpart, Verlander appears to be healthy, burning that fastball in there at an average of 95.4 mph, just like when he first came up to the Majors. That and his sharp slurve are giving hitters fits; you just can’t see it in the ERA department, yet. He’s being aggressive, getting first pitch strikes to the tune of 64.1% (up from about 58% the past three seasons). Do what you can now to acquire Verlander and his 2.93 FIP ERA, because all signs are that he is going to be a top fantasy performer in 2009.