2010 Minor league positional sleepers
It’s never too early to start thinking about next season… is it? With the minor league 2009 season in the books, I have started developing my new and improved projections for 2010. I now use a projection system that takes minor league statistics at the Triple-A or Double-A level and regresses them to give a pretty conservative prediction for the following season. Here are some of the top projections for position players next season, should they see a full season of 600 PAs.
Travis Snider, OF (.275/.361/.503/.864)
The player that the projection system likes the best, by far. Snider is ready (.254/.330/.421/.750 in limited playing time the past two years), and he will get a chance to play a full season; that’s why Alex Rios is gone. I project him somewhere near .275-78-29-82-5 in 600 PA. He and Adam Lind will form a heck of an outfield next year.
Sean Rodriguez, SS/3B/2B/OF (.264/.344/.496/.840)
If you’re still wondering why the Rays traded Scott Kazmir before they were out of the wild card race, get ready to meet the reason. Not many guys that qualify at second base that can put up these numbers, but Rodriguez has stick and will travel. A full year’s worth of PA and he could give you .264-78-31-86-6 at 3-4 fantasy positions. That’s rarified airspace.
John Bowker, 1B/OF (.276/.372/.461/.833)
The Giants ought to give this guy a look, with the way he tore up the PCL this year. He doesn’t have awesome power for a first baseman, but his on-base ability can more than make up for that. Should he see a full year’s worth of work, he could throw down .276-82-21-79-7. That level of production with positional flexibility? Yes, please.
Carlos Gonzalez, OF (.275/.347/.481/.828)
Gonzalez looks like he could be a star in 2010. I love his potential, and he seems like his new digs, hitting .291/.364/.531 for Colorado in 247 PA this year at the tender age of 23. Draft him without hesitation, because his line could look like .275-79-21-99-9 next season.
Tyler Flowers, C/1B (.268/.363/.460/.823)
All the focus will be on Matt Wieters, but Flowers may be pretty darn good in his own right. If he’s ready to catch at this level, the White Sox will let him play. How does .268-80-22-71-2 from the catcher position sound?
Carlos Santana, C (.267/.357/.461/.818)
In a good year for catching sleepers, Santana is another catcher who can rake with the best of them. With Victor Martinez gone, look for Santana to get some serious playing time and capitalize on it. Big time sleeper at the position. Draft him and laugh at all the Joe Mauer owners who will spend a 1st or 2nd round pick for similar fantasy value, about .267-79-23-78-1.
Andy Marte, 3B (.272/.332/.473/.805)
Could it be that Marte is not officially dead yet? He had a great bounceback year in Cleveland’s farm system, and could be one of those post-hype sleepers. Don’t forget that he was just 25 years old this year, and is reaching that “peak” age in 2010. Should he reach 600 PA, his fantasy line might be .272-73-24-84-3. With the Tribe going young next year, he could see some significant playing time, should he impress early.
Brandon Wood, 3B (.263/.330/.472/.802)
Wow, this is starting to read like Baseball America’s top prospects of 2005 or something. Wood seems ready to make the jump, but will the Angels ever give him the playing time to do what he can do? In a full season, we could be looking at a .263-74-24-75-2 season.
