2010 Profile: Mark Reynolds

Mark Reynolds was a fantasy surprise in 2009, to say the least. Reynolds finished fourth in the NL with 44 home runs, and was tied with teammate Dan Haren for 3rd most strikeouts at 223 (that’s a joke). A poor contact hitter (and that’s putting it mildly), Reynolds benefitted from a .341 BABIP and posted a decent average of .260 on the year. He also scored 98 runs and drove in 102 men, topping the 100 RBI mark for the first time. But that isn’t even the most surprising thing. Reynolds, who, contrary to most hitters of his profile, is NOT a hulking beast of a man, and managed to swipe 24 bases, sealing his place as a valuable fantasy commodity. How much of that can we expect to repeat next year?

2010 Sleeper: SS Alcides Escobar

There are a number of new names to know for 2010, guys who should see quite a bit of playing time relative to what they’ve seen in the past. This is called a fantasy sleeper. Draft them as late as you can (but before other owners do), and you’ve got yourself quite a bargain. Knowing the average draft position of a player is extremely helpful in this instance. Okay, on to the post – in case you missed it, the Brewers dealt shortstop J.J. Hardy to the Twins this offseason, opening up the full-time shortstop job to young Alcides Escobar.

2010 Profile: Jake Peavy

Jake Peavy has changed over to the DH league and will be spending his first season outside of pitcher-friendly PETCO Stadium. Not only that, but he’s coming off a pretty major injury. How will these factors affect his fantasy value this season?

2010 Projections and fPAA, Alpha Edition

Now that we have some projections to look at, we can start to look at fantasy value. I have developed our fPAA method using 2009 fantasy league data. I calculate player value in two ways: first I look at their value in terms of production rates (i.e. total playing time doesn’t matter as long as they produce). Then I recalculate everything in terms of total production and average the two numbers.

Keep in mind there are a lot of adjustments to be made with the projections, and that will change the rankings pretty drastically. Without further ado, the 50 most valuable fantasy players of 2010:

FantasyScope 2010 Early Projections

With the 2009 World Series in the books, it’s time to start thinking about next year. Too many days without baseball makes my brain go numb, so here’s something for you to play around with. I have posted the alpha version of my FantasyScope projections for 2010! Full spreadsheet available here.

Feel free to use these numbers any way you want, but please do acknowledge the source, and link to my site if you feel inclined. Note these are PRELIMINARY projections, and I have not adjusted for playing time, injury or league/team changes. I also need to weed out retired or inactive players for 2010 who still show up because I use a 3-year weighted model. I have started to add minor league projections, but many players are still missing, so let me know who you think will see significant time next year in the Majors. Positional changes have not yet been made, and there are little adjustments to be made all over. Please email me at redsoxtalk AT gmail DOT com with issues, or if you would like to help me curate the data.

Here are some hitting leaderboards to get you started:

2010 Profile: Ben Zobrist

After a stellar .297-91-27-91-17 season (at multiple positions) which made Ben Zobrist a household fantasy name, what can we expect from him next year? Zobrist has always been a good hitter in the minor leagues, but 2009 came as pretty much a universal surprise. After a career year like that, it’s important to have realistic expectations going forward.