2010 Projections and fPAA, Alpha Edition

Now that we have some projections to look at, we can start to look at fantasy value. I have developed our fPAA method using 2009 fantasy league data. I calculate player value in two ways: first I look at their value in terms of production rates (i.e. total playing time doesn’t matter as long as they produce). Then I recalculate everything in terms of total production and average the two numbers.

Keep in mind there are a lot of adjustments to be made with the projections, and that will change the rankings pretty drastically. Without further ado, the 50 most valuable fantasy players of 2010:

Name	Pos
Tim Lincecum	SP
Albert Pujols	1B
Hanley Ramirez	SS
CC Sabathia	SP
Dan Haren	SP
Roy Halladay	SP
Javier Vazquez	SP
Zack Greinke	SP
Brandon Webb	SP
Chris Carpenter	SP
Ryan Braun	OF
Ryan Howard	1B
Mariano Rivera	RP
Joe Nathan	RP
Justin Verlander	SP
Felix Hernandez	SP
Matt Holliday	OF
Chase Utley	2B
Francisco Rodriguez	RP
Prince Fielder	1B
Carl Crawford	OF
Alex Rodriguez	3B
Jacoby Ellsbury	OF
Josh Beckett	SP
Bobby Abreu	OF
Jimmy Rollins	SS
Johan Santana	SP
Jonathan Papelbon	RP
Adam Wainwright	SP
Brian Wilson	RP
Brian Roberts	2B
Ian Kinsler	2B
Francisco Cordero	RP
Mark Teixeira	1B
David Wright	3B
Brian Fuentes	RP
Miguel Cabrera	1B
Matt Kemp	OF
Cliff Lee	SP
Jonathan Broxton	RP
Trevor Hoffman	RP
Ted Lilly	SP
Jon Lester	SP
Jake Peavy	SP
Ichiro Suzuki	OF
Joe Borowski	RP
Josh Johnson	SP
Joakim Soria	RP
Ricky Nolasco	SP
Heath Bell	RP

As I have noted before, there a a whole lotta pitchers up there near the top, including numero uno, Tim Lincecum. That’s a product of his predicted baseball-leading 238 Ks and low 2.77 ERA over 213+ innings. Oh, and the over/under on number of wins? 15. That’s hard to beat. But it may be that my projection is a little too hard on hitters with the regression. I’ll have to check that over.

I have also done a preliminary positional adjustment based on the average value of the top 12 players at each position (the top 36 OF, the top 72 starters and the top 48 relievers). Subtracting out those numbers should give us a player ranking that takes into account positional scarcity. Here are your top players now:

Name	Pos
Tim Lincecum	SP
Hanley Ramirez	SS
Joe Mauer	C
Albert Pujols	1B
CC Sabathia	SP
Dan Haren	SP
Roy Halladay	SP
Ryan Braun	OF
Javier Vazquez	SP
Zack Greinke	SP
Brandon Webb	SP
Chris Carpenter	SP
Matt Holliday	OF
Mariano Rivera	RP
Joe Nathan	RP
Jimmy Rollins	SS
Chase Utley	2B
Carl Crawford	OF
Alex Rodriguez	3B
Justin Verlander	SP
Jacoby Ellsbury	OF
Bobby Abreu	OF
Felix Hernandez	SP
Francisco Rodriguez	RP
David Wright	3B
Brian Roberts	2B
Ian Kinsler	2B
Matt Kemp	OF
Ryan Howard	1B
Josh Beckett	SP
Jonathan Papelbon	RP
Johan Santana	SP
Adam Wainwright	SP
Brian Wilson	RP
Brian McCann	C
Francisco Cordero	RP
Ichiro Suzuki	OF
Derek Jeter	SS
Brian Fuentes	RP
Jonathan Broxton	RP
Cliff Lee	SP
Jason Bay	OF
Trevor Hoffman	RP
Ted Lilly	SP
Jon Lester	SP
Prince Fielder	1B
Jake Peavy	SP
Dustin Pedroia	2B
Joe Borowski	RP
Russell Martin	C

This is a bit better maybe, but Lincecum is still king of this party. We see Joe Mauer jump all the way up to 3rd overall thanks to his catcher eligibility; that position is pretty bad.

Not perfect, but it’s something to think about. Stay tuned as we develop things from here.