Over-Under: Jason Bay and Magglio Ordonez

People who play fantasy baseball classically overvalue the most recent year. Someone hits 30 HR and drives in 100 runs, so they’ve gotta be a 2nd rounder, right? Not always. Probably the worst thing you can do is to value a player by his career year, because you’ll always pay too much. There are some telltale signs that you could be looking at a career season; but let’s talk more specifically, shall we?

Over-Under: Matt Cain and Justin Verlander

This time we profile two well-known pitchers and break down why we think they’re over- and underrated, respectively.

Over-Under: Shane Victorino and Carlos Guillen

Overrated

Shane Victorino is that rare speedster who can also hit for some average, making him a much better source of steals than say, Willy Taveras. With an ADP of 56.1, people are happily taking him as a mid-5th rounder in most fantasy drafts. By my measure, however, that’s too steep a price to pay for a .289-92-12-55-29 performer. The hit you’ll take in the HR and RBI categories if you draft him as a regular makes him more of a 9th round pick in my book. A much better pick also going in the 5th round: Jacoby Ellsbury of the Red Sox, who will likely hit for a little more average and could swipe 15-20 more bags.

Over-Under: Carlos Quentin and Matt Holliday

Overrated

Did Carlos Quentin have a ridiculous 2008? Yes. Did he finish 5th in AL MVP voting? Yes. Would he have hit 40 HR if he hadn’t missed a month with that injury? Probably. Is he worth the 27th pick in the draft? No.

Over-Under: Josh Hamilton and Dan Haren

Overrated

What happens when a player has an amazing comeback from a personal problem, drives in almost 100 runs by the All-Star Break, gets all sorts of media attention and contends for the MVP? Ask Josh Hamilton, who’s being taken in the top 10 of most fantasy drafts right now.

Over-Under: Dustin Pedroia and Carlos Beltran

Over-Under Valued is a new series where we will highlight one overrated and one underrated player from a mixed 5×5 fantasy perspective.