2010 Projections and fPAA, Alpha Edition

Now that we have some projections to look at, we can start to look at fantasy value. I have developed our fPAA method using 2009 fantasy league data. I calculate player value in two ways: first I look at their value in terms of production rates (i.e. total playing time doesn’t matter as long as they produce). Then I recalculate everything in terms of total production and average the two numbers.

Keep in mind there are a lot of adjustments to be made with the projections, and that will change the rankings pretty drastically. Without further ado, the 50 most valuable fantasy players of 2010:

FantasyScope 2010 Early Projections

With the 2009 World Series in the books, it’s time to start thinking about next year. Too many days without baseball makes my brain go numb, so here’s something for you to play around with. I have posted the alpha version of my FantasyScope projections for 2010! Full spreadsheet available here.

Feel free to use these numbers any way you want, but please do acknowledge the source, and link to my site if you feel inclined. Note these are PRELIMINARY projections, and I have not adjusted for playing time, injury or league/team changes. I also need to weed out retired or inactive players for 2010 who still show up because I use a 3-year weighted model. I have started to add minor league projections, but many players are still missing, so let me know who you think will see significant time next year in the Majors. Positional changes have not yet been made, and there are little adjustments to be made all over. Please email me at redsoxtalk AT gmail DOT com with issues, or if you would like to help me curate the data.

Here are some hitting leaderboards to get you started:

2009 Forecaster’s Challenge results

FantasyScope is proud to have participated in Tom Tango’s 2009 Forecaster Challenge over at his “The Book” blog. Well, the results are now out, and for us they weren’t pretty. FantasyScope was ID 111, and we finished near last out of 22 forecasters, no matter the methodology. Still, it was a valuable experience for me, and given me all sorts of motivation to improve what we have to offer in next year’s projections. A more detailed analysis after the jump.

2010 FantasyScope projections in the works

Alright, our first stab at projecting players was admittedly flawed. With the 2009 regular season tucked away, we are already working hard at improving our system to bring you the most accurate projections possible. Here’s a sneak peak at some of the things we are working into thus year’s projections:

2010 Closers list

We will keep this list updated as we learn more about who will be closing for each team in the Majors come Opening Day 2010.

Fantasyscope-fPAR: Mid-season update

Just thought I’d make a plug for the FantasyScope projections and fPAR analysis method. I am in 3 Yahoo! stadard roto leagues where I used my player rankings to draft, and here are their current performances:

2009 FantasyScope official projections are here!

For all of you who were repeatedly clicking the “refresh” button for the past month and a half, the day has finally come. All the tweaking, adjusting and fine-tuning is finished, and I present to you the final FantasyScope 2009 projections. 545 hitters, 645 pitchers are included, encompassing both established players and fringe minor leaguers. I have made playing time adjustments for Spring injuries to major players (Alex Rodriguez) as well as recent signings (Chad Cordero).

fPAR-FS: Fantasy top 50 players for 2009

With the recent injury announcement about A-Rod, how do we handle the first few rounds of the draft? Here’s what fPAR has to say about that (using our FantasyScope projections):

fPAR-PECOTA and fPAR-CHONE for 2009

I’ve put fPAR player rankings online now for both popular projection systems:

fPAR using PECOTA projections

fPAR using CHONE projections

Some very interesting results for both. Especially who’s ranked number one overall by PECOTA. I think that’s due to the overall conservativeness of PECOTA when it comes to HRs.

Enjoy as you enter your fantasy drafts!

fPAR-FS: Top 40 RP for 2009

Alright, here we go: