Dominant Starts

Quality Starts

The quality start was defined in 1985 by John Lowe as a start in which the pitcher lasts at least six innings and allows three earned runs or less. This is generally considered to be a solid outing by today’s standards, and teams that get a quality start win about 70% of the time. A top-flight pitcher can turn in a QS around 75-80% of the time. Sounds reasonable.

However, there are several shortcomings with this model. First, imagine Pitcher A who goes the distance and allows just four runs. His ERA (and performance) is actually better than Pitcher B, who went six and allowed three, but A doesn’t get a QS, while B does. What of Pitcher C, who loaded the bases after an opponent reached on an error, then gives up the grand slam? He deserves some blame, but the rule about earned runs could still net him a “quality start”.

Enter the Dominant Start

Quality starts tell you something about consistency, but it’s not the whole story. What I have done is define a dominant start as being one in which a pitcher lasts at least seven innings, allows two runs or less, AND strikes out at least seven men. Using this definition of dominance yields a team winning percentage of about 80%.

If you look at the Dominant Starts leaders compared with the Quality Starts leaders, you will see a clear advantage in quality of pitching. These are the pitchers who are really capable of being aces, even if their consistency is not all there yet. I use this as an indicator of possible breakout pitchers for the next fantasy draft.

2009 Dominant start leaders
2008 Dominant start leaders
2007 Dominant start leaders